How Should Flyers Handle New Deal for Gostisbehere?

(Kate Frese/Sports Talk Philly)

By Dan Heaning, Sports Talk Philly staff writer 

There is no questioning the Philadelphia Flyers need to re-sign defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. It’s so obvious that it’s not a matter of re-signing the restricted free agent as much as how they should re-sign him.

Should general manager Ron Hextall give the young blueliner a bridge deal or lock him up for as long as humanly possible?

While the latter may seem like the way to go so the Flyers have Gostisbehere signed for seven or eight years at a cap hit of $4.5 million or higher, there’s more to it than that.

One thing to look at is the Flyers current salary cap situation. Philadelphia’s projected cap space is $13.15 million. The Orange and Black will also lose at least one contract at the NHL Expansion Draft so that number could move up marginally or increase by $3 million to $4 million.

The team will have to sink a good deal of that money into a starting goaltender whether it’s in the $5 million range or more to re-sign Steve Mason to a moderate-term deal or giving someone like Ryan Miller $6 million to $7 million for just a few seasons.

Hand out a $5 million contract to Gostisbehere and Mason or a $5 million contract to Gostisbehere and a $7 million deal to Miller and it’s so long, cap space.

Couple that with the team needing to, or at least trying to, re-sign Nick Cousins, Mike Vecchione and Jordan Weal and the Flyers could be a little short on cap space.

However, none of those players are as vital to the team as Gostisbehere so losing one or two of them to keep the puck-rushing defenseman around should be seen as collateral damage.

Yet, when you look down the road for the Flyers blue line, the likes of Travis Sanheim, Philippe Myers, Robert Hagg and Sam Morin are aiming to join the big club in the next two seasons. By the time all of the prospects reach the NHL, Gostisbehere could be the fourth-best defenseman on the team. That could potentially put the Flyers in a situation where Gostisbehere is a $5 million third-pairing D-man.

Not like that is anything new for this organization, but that would lead to having to trade a young defenseman or even Gostisbehere himself.

That’s not enough to avoid locking up Ghost, though. Why risk losing someone a few years down the road based on the idea that a couple of guys could potentially be better?

One potential problem is making all of this work mathematically. Ivan Provorov looks like he’ll be a defenseman Hextall will have no choice but to skip the bridge deal with and lock him up immediately. Sanheim and Myers will have their entry-level contracts expire at the same time, while Morin and Hagg’s ELCs expire the year prior. Depending on how each player does, they could command decent raises — if not when their first contracts expire, then certainly when their second deals do.

Again, potential. But part of a general manager’s job is to create a long-term plan, particularly for a patient GM like Hextall. So hoping for the best and expecting the worst is the name of the game here.

Well, at the same time Provorov, Sanheim and Myers are all due for new contracts the likes of Wayne Simmonds and Travis Konecny will be looking for fresh deals as well.

In terms of potential core future players, that’s Konecny, Provorov, Sanheim, Myers, Morin and Hagg all needing to be re-signed in short order. Meanwhile, one of the few veteran players the Flyers will want to keep around will want a big raise after playing on one of the most favorable contracts in the league.

Noticing a trend here? Potential has a lot to do with the Flyers future. Then, they have to contend with the current contracts that they have. Radko Gudas has a $3.350 million cap hit until 2020. By then the Flyers could be carrying nearly $2 million in dead money if they buy out Andrew MacDonald in 2019.

The best case scenario for the bridge deal is the one the Chicago Blackhawks used with Duncan Keith. After his entry-level deal, the Blackhawks gave him a four-year bridge deal worth $5.9 million with a cap hit of $1.475 million. When that contract expired, Chicago backed up a dump truck full of money to his house with a 13-year, $72 million contract.

A bridge deal could work that way for Philadelphia, minus about five years off the contract with more salary to make up for the now forbidden double-digit term.

However, by going the bridge deal route, there is the potential that Gostisbehere prices himself off the team. Instead of re-signing to a long-term deal that would pay him in the $5 million or $6 million range, he can look for a P.K. Subban type contract.

And that would be the end of his time in Philadelphia. Especially if Provorov improves upon his already great play, the likes of Sanheim and Myers are everything they are built up to be while Morin and Hagg pan out as well.

That’s where potential becomes a danger for the Flyers. If they give him a cheaper bridge deal and Gostisbehere goes into next season with a chip on his shoulder from how this past year went, his traditional stats may return to how they were in his rookie campaign. If that happens, he very well may demand too much on the open market than what the organization is willing to pay.

That’s where you weigh the negatives. What does more damage to the team presently and in the future? Is keeping Gostisbehere around on the cheap for a few seasons more important than retaining him for seven or eight seasons but potentially creating another salary cap quagmire?

Gostisbehere has certainly earned a significant raise. He’s easily one of the Flyers best defensemen and one of the few that belongs to be a part of their future plans.

Skipping the bridge deal could work out for the Flyers by just avoiding the hassle of having to re-sign Ghost in two or three seasons. However, it creates a potential problem with how Gostisbehere fits into a fully-realized Philadelphia back end and how Hextall will make all the salaries work.

Meanwhile, going through with the bridge deal gives Gostisbehere a quick out. If he excels, he could demand anywhere from Mike Green to Subban money. However, the potential exists that Hextall could get in front of the talks and lock up Gostisbehere on the final year of the bridge deal. All the while, Hextall can transition the team more easily from the current iteration to the future core in a salary cap sense.

Both carry risks, both carry rewards and how Hextall proceeds will show how he views Gostisbehere, the other young defensemen and his process.