By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
While Tommy Joseph and Cameron Rupp are off to slow starts for the Philadelphia Phillies, their potential long-term replacements have come out of the gates hot for the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.
Rhys Hoskins, who hit 38 home runs and drove in 116 RBIs for Double A Reading a season ago, is batting .333 with four home runs, nine RBIs and nine walks through his first 57 at-bats at Triple A. Hoskins had exactly 498 at-bats the past two seasons, meaning that on the current pace that he's on, he would hit nearly 35 home runs this year.
Hoskins isn't going to bat .333 for the season, but the idea of him hitting north of 30 home runs is certainly realistic. If he continues on this pace power wise, while continuing to keep his strikeout totals relatively low — he's only struck out 12 times so far this season — perhaps it won't take until 2018 for him to reach the majors.
Joseph is going to continue to get the bulk of the at-bats at first for the immediate future, but he certainly needs to improve his current .200/.250/.291 slash line or he risks losing at-bats to someone else at first. And someone else shouldn't (and probably won't) be Brock Stassi.
Alfaro, who has hit a home run in back-to-back games, is hitting .377 in his first 61 at-bats of 2017. The 23-year-old was considered by many to be the x factor of the July 2015 Cole Hamels trade. While Jerad Eickhoff has been about as steady of a starter as you could be to open your career since the trade, Alfaro looks as though he has a chance to have the best career of any of the five prospects that the team acquired in one of the biggest trades in franchise history.
It's unclear when Alfaro will be called up and given a chance to play regularly. The team has never seemed especially high on Rupp — they reportedly didn't want to pair him with a young backup, although that did end up happening — but as long as he's in the Phillies organization, he's going to be on the major league roster. And as long as he's batting .186, he's going to stay in the Phillies organization.
A three catcher scenario, where Alfaro, Rupp and Andrew Knapp split time at catcher, with Rupp and Knapp potentially getting an occasional start at first base, doesn't seem as though it would be beneficial to anyone. While Knapp is up and Alfaro isn't, it would be nice for Knapp to see more at-bats, so the Phillies understand what they have in someone who could conceivably be Alfaro's long-term backup.
So Alfaro may be left to play out a majority of this season at the Triple-A level, and then get a September call-up when rosters expand. My guess is that a year from now, one way or another, Rupp isn't with the Phillies. The Phillies may not open the season with Alfaro as their starting catcher to save a year of service time — service time considerations could push back when he's called up this year as well — but by the summer of 2018, he'll probably be the team's full-time catcher.
There does seem to be some discontent from the Phillies' fanbase concerning the development, or perhaps the lack thereof, from some of the organization's top prospects. Hoskins and Alfaro are two reasons why fans should remain excited about the future. And if that's not enough, second wave of talent in the lower levels of the team's farm system, led by Mickey Moniak and Sixto Sanchez, looks as though it could be special.
The Nuggets
- Aaron Altherr lowering his hands, which hitting coach Matt Stairs suggested he do before the season, really seems to be helping the 26-year-old. Altherr is slashing .379/.438/.621 with two home runs, six RBIs and two stolen bases. Not to mention he's a very good fielder at all three outfield positions, which leads you to think the Phillies will find a way to get him regular at-bats even once Howie Kendrick comes back.
- Daniel Nava's hot start has gotten overshadowed by how well Altherr has been playing, but the 34-year-old, who hit two home runs in his first game with the team, is slashing .391/.516/.739 in 23 at-bats. This comes after he hit .347 with five RBIs and seven walks in 49 spring at-bats. Whether he remains on the roster the entire year likely depends on how Brock Stassi plays, whether Michael Saunders and/or Howie Kendrick are traded this summer and how much Roman Quinn and Nick Williams push for a promotion. For the time being, Nava is more than holding his own, and he's a good clubhouse influence on a very young team.
- For as many hiccups as the Phillies bullpen has had early this year, Pat Neshek has been really good. In eight appearances, he has a 0.00 ERA and a 2.33 FIP. While his 4.41 xFIP is a little concerning, his strong start comes after he was dominant in the World Baseball Classic.
- I wonder when Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino will announce their retirements. Both, if they choose, could have careers on either national or local television.