Bram Welch has been writing about sports betting and iGaming for over six years. He started as a freelancer before joining our team in 2022. He has worked teaching English as a foreign language and as a journalist for the UK's largest regional newspaper.
All posts by Bram WelchPublic betting is the generic term given to betting patterns of the general public. It is known as the collective wagers placed on a particular market by a group of people. In turn, public betting trends form, thus helping analyze exactly who the public is betting on with percentages.
We explain more about public betting below and how it relates to all major American sports, such as the NFL, NBA, and MLB. This includes extensive and thorough research on the topic, analyzing how to use public betting percentages and trends to your advantage when sports betting.
Public Betting Percentages and Trends Explained
Public betting is quite simply the collective bets placed by the public. It refers to the total wagers customers place on a certain market with all sportsbooks combined. This then influences betting trends and betting lines, with the more money bet on a team/player moving their odds.
In contrast, if there is little betting activity on a team, the betting line odds are likely to increase (but not always) as the sportsbooks balance their books and try to attract interest on that side.
Take the NFL, for example. At Super Bowl LVIII, the Kansas City Chiefs faced the San Francisco 49ers. Despite the 49ers being slight favorites with the best offshore sportsbooks, the public betting trends and percentages indicated that the Chiefs were the ones being more backed by the general public.
Thus, public betting doesn’t necessarily run in conjunction with odds. Sometimes, the public betting trends align with the favorite in a particular market, but sometimes, this isn’t the case.
Public Betting Percentages
Public betting percentages are one way of showing who the public favors in a particular event/market. As previously mentioned, sportsbooks’ odds aren’t always reflected in the public betting percentages.
For example, suppose there is an NFL match between the LA Rams and the Miami Dolphins. Sportsbooks are favoring the Dolphins by 2.5 points (-2.5 on the spread), however despite being the underdogs, the Rams are attracting 75% of public money.
This is a prime example of where public betting percentages differ from actual sportsbook odds. So, just because a team is a favorite or a fighter is a heavy favorite in UFC or boxing, for example, doesn’t necessarily mean that is who the public is betting on.
Public betting percentages really show you who the public’s favorites are. The sportsbook’s odds might change slightly depending on how one-sided the public betting percentages are.
Before placing your wagers, whether on the NFL, NBA, or any other sport, it could be worth checking out the latest public betting percentages to see who the majority of bettors are backing and why that is the case.
Public Betting Trends
Public betting trends in sports betting refer to the betting patterns of the general public. This includes everyone wagering on a particular event, whether that be first-time gamblers or experienced bettors with extensive knowledge and understanding.
The beauty of public betting trends is that they provide valuable insights into the betting market. Customers can use these trends to make more informed decisions when placing their wagers.
Another aspect of public betting trends is that they can be reflected in the odds. They affect the odds for a game/event in different ways, from a customer’s standpoint, whether positively or negatively.
For example, if a large percentage of the public is betting on one side of the game, the sportsbook may adjust the odds to reflect this. Thus, adjusting the odds to attract more bets on the other side to balance their books and reduce the risk.
This is often why you see a push in moneyline odds from time to time. Public betting trends can lead to more favorable odds for the team/individual that is receiving less public support.
This works the other way, too, of course, with the sportsbooks also adjusting the odds if a popular bet receives a large amount of public support. This can make it more tricky for customers to find value and can lead to more profitable opportunities for betting against the public.
How Can Understanding Public Betting and Percentages Help?
Once you have mastered public betting and fully understand what it is and what it means, you can certainly use it to your advantage.
Analyzing public betting patterns can, of course, help bettors when picking their wagers and making their selections. If an individual is struggling to predict the outcome of an event/match, reading public betting trends and percentages will help.
Not only that, but public betting sometimes affects sportsbooks’ odds and can even influence price changes. If you fully understand public betting, you can use it to your advantage to help you place bets thanks to reliable and trustworthy sources.
Understanding public betting can be a huge benefit for gamblers and may even impact betting decisions.
For example. Say a bettor thinks Fighter X will win a UFC contest, but the public betting trends show that Fighter Y is being far more backed, which could impact an individual’s betting decision.
Public betting percentages and trends most definitely have a big impact on betting decisions. Sometimes, people like going against the grain to get better value and may ‘fade the public,’ but it also impacts the opposite way.
If you understand public betting, trends, and percentages can most definitely help and can be used in your favor.
Can Following Public Betting Trends Help Me Win?
Following public betting trends means you agree with the majority of the general public regarding an event’s outcome.
Following public betting trends means you are following the crowd more and agreeing with the majority of people, but that doesn’t always translate into winning wagers.
Of course, the more people that feel a certain outcome will come to fruition, the more confident you might be in your selection. But just because an overriding majority believes one betting outcome will happen doesn’t automatically mean it will win.
There are so many different variables when it comes to public betting trends. Of course, knowing what the bulk of people are betting on can often help, but it can also be easily swayed depending on various different factors.
This includes factors such as team news, injuries, weather, form, and head-to-head records, among others. Public betting trends will depend on different factors such as these, which will, in turn, help bettors potentially win by following these trends.
Don’t Always Follow The Public Betting Crowd
Although public betting trends and percentages can be extremely beneficial when making selections, it isn’t gospel. Ultimately public betting isn’t entirely foolproof – there are plenty of chinks in the armor.
Public betting trends do help gamblers see who the majority of fans are betting on, but that doesn’t mean that will be the final result. Just because most of the public is betting one way doesn’t mean the opposite outcome won’t happen.
There are flaws in public betting trends, as they don’t always point to the winner.
Sometimes, going against the grain actually has more benefits. In sports betting, this is often referred to as ‘fading the public’. It simply means betting against the general consensus of the overwhelming public.
Sometimes, betting against the public can benefit bettors instead of following the crowd. Odds on lesser-backed selections will be more lucrative, so betting against the grain can be the way to go.
The prices of the selection opposite the overwhelming public betting percentage will often increase, providing more winning opportunities for gamblers fading the public and betting against the grain.
Public Betting Trends and Percentages More Active The Closer To The Event
Public betting percentages and trends are particularly interesting and active closer to the time of the event. Take a UFC fight, for example. A month before the fight takes place, there mightn’t be too much to analyze in terms of public betting.
However, 24 hours away from the fight, the public betting percentages will be far more prominent. This is down to various reasons, one of which will be the news surrounding the event. As an event draws closer day by day, the more the public tends to hear about it.
This means that the best time to analyze the public betting trends and percentages is nearer to the time of the event.
However, this isn’t always the case. Yes, there will be more analysis and data to go off, but leaving it to the last minute could mean missing the boat. This is because the best prices could have been available days or weeks before, but those more lucrative prices could be long gone now.
If you aren’t checking public betting percentages and trends until the day of the event, you will likely have missed the best prices. That being said, there will be more reliable data and trustworthy analysis to go off the closer you are to the event.
It’s worth weighing up yourself when you should read into public betting percentages and when the trends are the most reliable.
How Do Public Betting Trends Impact The Odds On A Match?
One frequently asked question surrounding public betting trends is: What impact do they have on the odds of a match/event?
Thanks to public betting, the odds on a game or match can be swayed. In short, the odds of a particular market will move based on the weight of money placed on a team, outcome, or event.
This means that the more money on one outcome will result in the odds shortening, thus public betting having a big impact. Similarly, the odds on the opposite outcome will get bigger due to the overwhelming consensus of the public betting on the other.
What Are The Best Tools and Resources For Finding Public Betting Trends?
When delving into the world of sports betting, it is essential to utilize reliable tools and resources for public betting trends. Various places showcase betting data, such as public betting trends over time.
For example, Absolute Sports Betting is a reliable website that provides comprehensive data analysis on public betting trends. A tool such as this offers real-time information, helping bettors make more informed decisions based on concrete data.
By leveraging these resources, gamblers can place bets and selections based on reliable and trustworthy data rather than on more speculation.
Having access to up-to-date information, such as the latest public betting trends, is pivotal. Reliable sources such as these provide bettors with a helping hand, navigating them through the ever-evolving landscape of public betting trends.
Whether it be price changes, odds movement, or anything else, tools and platforms such as these are a big help when it comes to finding overall public betting trends.
How To Analyze Public Betting Data and Percentages
It is integral that you have a full understanding of the analysis in order to use public betting trends to your advantage. Interpreting the public betting trends and data is extremely important if you want to use the percentages and trends to your advantage.
As you can see in the above example, public betting money and percentages show exactly who the public is betting on in a certain event. The above examples are all NBA matches, whereby you can see exactly who the public favors to win each match.
From the top, it is clear that the general consensus of the public is that Orlando Magic will defeat the Washington Wizards by at least seven points. In the above example, public betting shows that 83% of bettors have backed the Magic to cover the spread.
Below that, the Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers is far closer according to public betting percentages. 44% of bettors see the Cavaliers covering the spread, meanwhile 56% of gamblers expect the Hawks +1 to come to fruition.
Analyzing these public betting trends can help bettors make more educated and informed decisions rather than just fancying a team to win with little evidence or data to support that argument.
Again, as you can see in the above NBA example, the LA Clippers vs Houston Rockets game is another where public betting is split. The spread is set at 6 points, with the Clippers to cover the -6 spread and the Rockets +6, the two options here.
47% of public betting is on the Clippers to cover the spread, meanwhile 53% believe the Rockets +6 points will come in. Understanding these public betting trends and analyzing them will certainly help when it comes to placing bets and bettors making educated selections.
The Best Tips and Hints For Using Public Betting
If you are keen to use public betting trends and percentages going forward to help you make more informed selections, here are some top tips to consider:
1. Spotting a betting trend early can help you get a better price, which in turn will reward you with bigger winnings if the selection ends up coming in. This ties in with making your own mind up and not always following the crowd.
2. Public betting trends can quickly snowball, with bettors jumping on the bandwagon, massively altering the trends and percentages. This also creates false favorites, meaning there might actually be better value (bigger prices) elsewhere.
3. Doing your own research is also integral when making betting selections. Yes, public betting trends will help, but ultimately, it is you placing the bet, so do your research and make your own mind up.
Personal research will also help find out some potentially key information, such as head-to-head stats, recent form, team news, injury updates, news stories, and even the weather, which are all variables that must be considered when doing your own groundwork into the game.
Public Betting Top Tips
In short, these are some of the best tips when it comes to public betting:
- Spot a trend early to get a better price
- Do your own research
- Don’t always follow the crowd
- Consider other variables such as H2H record, injuries, weather, etc
Public Betting Trends and Percentages Across Different Sports
Public betting percentages and trends can really help bettors when placing their wagers on a particular event.
Whether it’s an NBA match, a UFC fight, an MLB game, or an NFL showdown, public betting trends and percentages will show you what the public thinks and who they are backing to come out on top.
No matter the sport, public betting trends can help you make a more informed decision and thus place a more educated wager.
Below, we outline some of the most popular sports bettors who tend to use public betting percentages and trends.
NFL Public Betting Percentages Explained
Of course, the NFL is one of the more popular sports for people to bet on in America and worldwide. Thus, the NFL has more of the public betting on it, leading to more reliable public betting percentages and trends.
The three major NFL wagers are points, spreads, and money lines. Keep track of the NFL public betting percentages based on the total number of bets placed and the total wagering amount placed, whether it be the money line, total, or spread.
An example of NFL public betting could be a game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys. Say for the sake of argument that 80% of bets are placed on the Buccaneers against the spread, public betting percentages and trends greatly favor Tampa Bay.
From there, you can see who most of the public thinks will win the game through public betting percentages.
NBA Public Betting Percentages Explained
Betting on the NBA is another extremely popular market for gamblers in the US. Like the NFL, betting on the NBA usually consists of three main wagers – money line, spread, and points total.
NBA public betting percentages will show who the public is favoring and which team has the highest volume of bets or the most money behind them. Understanding public betting percentages and trends is integral in any sport. It helps bettors stay ahead of the curve.
An example of NBA public betting could be an imaginary match between the 76ers and the Celtics. Even if most bets are on the Celtics to win, the money is with the 76ers; experienced bettors might support the 76ers the most.
This is often called ‘fading the public,’ whereby you are betting against the grain and are in the minority. Public betting percentages are just an indication of who the public is favoring. Just because the majority of bettors are favoring one team doesn’t necessarily mean you should back them, either.
MLB Public Betting Percentages Explained
Just like the NBA and NFL, MLB public betting percentages show the amount of money and wagers being staked on a baseball game. The process is the same: looking to see who the public favors and why this might be the case.
Generally, if the sportsbooks are taking considerably more bets on one side of the money line, they will adjust the odds to the other side to encourage wagering. This is why keeping track of public betting is vitally important.
NHL Public Betting Percentages Explained
NHL public betting percentages are a great indicator as to who the majority of fans believe will win a game. Just like previous examples of other popular sports in the US, NFL public betting percentages are a great tool to see who the majority of fans are collectively betting on.
Say the Vegas Golden Knights are up against the Florida Panthers, and 70% of bettors are backing the Panthers to cover the spread at -1.5. This indicates that the public is massively favoring them to not only win the match against the Golden Knights but also to do so by a couple of goals.
What Are The Pros and Cons Of Following The Public Betting Trends?
Like anything in life, following public betting trends has both positives and negatives.
Pros
- Reliable and trustworthy source
- Helpful to see what others think
- Can exploit market inefficiencies
- Comprehensive research and analysis
Cons
- Can be contrasting information
- Not making your own decision
- Smaller sample sizes can skew the result
- Missed opportunities and potential losses
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