Victor Arum is a seasoned sports betting writer who currently contributes to SportsTalkPhilly. He creates insightful guides and how-tos to help sports bettors formulate winning strategies and make informed wagers. Victor also reviews and rates sportsbooks, deeming them a SMASH or PASS. When not analysing sports betting patterns or writing, he's probably stretching at the gym or (re)watching a sitcom
All posts by Victor ArumA sports betting model is a structured way to determine the unbiased chances of different outcomes in a game. It involves using statistical and analytical methods to make predictions about sports events. Essentially, a sports betting model helps predict the likelihood of a specific in-game outcome, like which team might win or how many points will be scored.
Join us as we explain in detail everything there is to know about sports betting models. This includes what a sports betting model is, why you should consider building one, the pros and cons, how to build such a model, and examples of betting models in practice in the most popular US sports.
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What Is A Sports Betting Model?
As you probably already know, sports betting is about more than just a hunch. Sure, you can rely on gut feelings sometimes, but usually, experienced bettors do research and think strategically to improve their chances of cashing a winning bet slip.
This is where a sports betting model comes in handy. If you want to get into sports betting and make a profit over time, building a sports betting model could be worth your while. Such a model will help you identify probabilities, showing you the most likely outcomes in a game or event. It takes the guesswork out of betting and focuses purely on numbers.
These models are often based on historical results, giving you a clearer picture of how similar games ended in the past. For instance, if 8 out of the last 10 winners in a horse race came from gates 4 or lower – an 80% return – you may use this data for future bets.
Sports wagering models rely solely on data, removing any emotion from your decisions. They don’t care if you think the Denver Broncos will surprise everyone and win the Super Bowl; they just go by the numbers.
These days, more bettors seem to be implementing a sports betting model into their strategy when wagering with the best offshore sportsbooks. Is it any wonder? Using a model can be the main difference between a consistent loser and a serial winner in sports wagering.
Why Build Sports Betting Models?
Building a sports betting model has many benefits. The most obvious one is that it helps bettors become highly profitable over time. This won’t happen overnight, but using a model can make you more profitable in the long run.
A good sports betting model also helps identify the most profitable betting opportunities, sometimes in less obvious markets rather than the main ones offered by many of the best online sportsbooks in the US. By recording your bets, you can easily spot trends, learn from past mistakes, and see which bets were successful and which were not.
Using a betting model makes it easier to find new betting angles and attack more profitable markets. It’s clear why many bettors now use sports betting models—they help you see where you might be going wrong and find new opportunities for profit. However, remember that betting models need regular monitoring and adjusting based on wagering results due to the sheer numbers and comprehensive data involved.
How To Build A Sports Betting Model in Excel
Below, we will walk you through the steps to build a sports betting model. Most people use Microsoft Excel or Google Sheets to create their models. This makes it easy to track your results and find better betting angles in the future.
Here are seven simple steps for building a successful sports betting model:
1. Choose Your Goal
First and foremost, pick a specific goal for your model. Decide on the sport, what edge you’re looking for, and how long you’ll use the model. Be specific with your goals to keep your focus narrow and effective.
2. Select Metrics/Data Points
Next, choose the metrics and data points that you will use. Some metrics will be more helpful than others, which you will find out as you build your sports betting model. However, the general rule of thumb here is that the more relevant data you can gather, the better.
Here are just some examples of metrics and data points you could use to your advantage to help build a successful sports betting model:
- Positive Expected Value (+EV)
- Closing Line Value (CLV)
- No Vig Odds/%
- History Against the Spread
- History Against the Total
3. Collect & Record the Data Points
Now, gather the data. You can either collect it yourself or use available online data. Collecting data yourself is thorough but can take too much time. On the other hand, using online data is quicker, though you may need to scour various sources. Combining both methods can be beneficial.
4. Choose the Type of Model
This is where building your sports betting model can get a little more technical. There are so many different types of models available, but it’s finding the one that works for you that matters. As long as you find a method that actually works, then you’re off to a good start.
Luckily, Excel has almost every necessary program required to run any of these models. This is where Excel is a level up on other platforms, such as Google Sheets.
Here are some examples of types of models you could adopt when building your sports betting model:
Regression Analysis
This uses historical data to predict future outcomes. The NFL itself previously used regression analysis on their games, concluding that passing efficiency had the highest impact on the outcome of football games. One of the most famous examples of regression analysis being used is with the Oakland Athletics baseball team, a true story later adapted into the blockbuster 2011 movie Moneyball.
Martingale & D’alembert
This is probably the riskiest type of model as it involves progressively staking more money if your bets lose. Martingale deals with the actual dollar amount being bet, while D’alembert deals with increasing the percentage of your bankroll that you are betting.
In essence, you double your next bet until you win. For example, if you stake $100 on a bet at -120 and it loses, then you must wager $200 on another -120 bet. By doubling your second bet, if it is a winner, you still come out positive despite going 1-1 overall.
This strategy is extremely risky as you are risking a lot of money regularly, especially if you go on a cold streak. It is most important to have a large bankroll for these strategies.
Insurance
This is simply the complete opposite of the Martingale & D’alembert model. This model involves scaling back your bet size if your bet loses. Simply wagering a lower stake.
Paroli
The Paroli model is fairly straightforward to understand. If your first wager wins, you double the bet size with your next bet. If you are lucky or skillful enough to win three times in a row, you scale back to the original bet size that you started with.
This way, you pocket the winnings and repeat the Paroli model. Although far less risky than the Martingale & D’alembert model, this strategy still requires a fairly healthy bankroll.
Statistical Anomalies
This method is one of the toughest to call, as, of course, sports aren’t played by robots. They are played by real people, meaning it is almost impossible to know what is purely a result of human error or what is an anomaly.
Anomalies in sports can include the weather, injuries, playing home or away, busy scheduling, head-to-head records, and much more.
5. Build Your Model
After deciding on which program you want to use to run your model in Excel, you’ll then, most importantly, need to track the results. The only way to know whether your model is actually working or not is by tracking the results of every bet you stake.
When building your sports betting model, the three most important things to remember are:
- Track your bets
- Track your return on investment
- Track the metrics you are using to judge your model by
- Understand your bet sizing strategy
6. Test Your Model
This stage of building your model can actually be quite fun. It is where you test your sports betting model to see whether it works or not.
To do this, simply give yourself a large enough sample size, see the results, and record them. This part can be totally hypothetical, so you aren’t actually wagering any real money. Rather, seeing what your returns would have been should you have placed the bet, etc.
If you are profitable on your road test, then great! It’s time to begin betting with real money. However, if you aren’t profitable in these paper trades after an adequate number of bets, then you might want to re-evaluate your model.
Go back to basics, try a different model, and repeat the process. Different models all work slightly differently for people, so it’s just about finding the one that works for you.
7. Start Making Money
Once you see your model actually works, it’s time to start betting with real money. If you can build a profitable, sustainable model, then you have given yourself an edge over the rest of sports bettors.
Enjoy the process, stick to your model, record results, track your bets, and win yourself plenty of money!
Sports Betting Model Tips, Hints and Strategies
Now that you know all about building a sports betting model, go and put it into practice. These key takeaways and hints could really benefit you when betting on sports using your bespoke model.
Here are some of our betting expert’s top tips when it comes to building and sustaining a highly successful sports betting model:
- Focus on one sport/certain markets
- Become an expert in a few different models
- Be adaptable to change if the model starts going wrong
- Continue to find more profitable betting angles
Pros and Cons Of Having a Sports Betting Model
Like anything in sports betting, there are both positives and negatives when it comes to building a sports betting model. Below are some of the advantages of using a sports betting model, as well as a few potential drawbacks.
Positives
One of the main advantages of having a sports betting model is that you can obtain far better betting results, thus becoming much more profitable. At the end of the day, making a profit is the end goal, no matter what type of bet you are placing or the strategy you are incorporating.
Another positive of having a sports betting model in place is that it can showcase your mistakes and outline what you should avoid in the future. This is because it is incredibly easy to filter results with a betting model.
Another benefit of having a sports betting model is that it helps you find more profitable betting angles and new markets.
Negatives
Like anything in sports betting, there are, of course, some drawbacks to using a sports betting model. In short, it is highly time-consuming. This is probably the biggest drawback, given that extensive research and time are essential. It isn’t for everyone, that is for sure.
It can also often be less fun than just betting on a whim and going with your gut. Some people would argue this takes the fun away from sports betting entirely. Betting on a basketball game with the best NBA sportsbooks and having a flutter on a hunch can be fun and add to the enjoyment of a game.
Although a successful model will yield winning bets and, in turn, profit, it does take time to become really profitable. Even if your first few bets are all winning, they are likely to be smaller returns as you test the waters. This means that it can take a fair bit of time to actually become really profitable.
Summary
Positives- Become far more profitable
- It helps with better betting results
- Can showcase mistakes to avoid in the future
- Filter results easily
- Find new/more profitable betting angles
Negatives- Time-consuming
- Less fun
- Takes time to become really profitable
Create Betting Apps and Sell Successful Betting Models
After refining and profiting from various strategies over a long period, some bettors turn their successful models into business opportunities. If you’ve been consistently profitable, you may want to share your model with others and make extra money. Many people set up betting apps and sell their access to their successful betting models, often through a paywall.
Usually, this starts with a free trial, followed by a monthly subscription fee to access the selections or models going forward. If you’re confident in your model’s success, why not do the same? Share your tips and strategies, and charge for your expertise.
The Final Word on Sports Betting Models
Most long-term successful sports bettors incorporate some kind of statistical model into their betting practice. At its heart, doing so is just the best way to iron out mistakes and gradually increase your profitability. Consequently, assuming you have the time available and the will to do so, we highly recommend jumping onto Excel and building your own model. You should find that, given time, your win ratio at the top online gambling sites increases.
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