Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsJD
Tomorrow night is the night that Sixers fans find out whether the tanking was worth it. Our collective fate rests in the hands of ping pong balls and lottery odds.
With the right amount of luck, the Sixers could land a franchise changing talent. If we end up on the outside looking in, however, it could make this entire throwaway season all for naught.
The Draft lottery is a cruel mistress in that way. You can understand why it is the only night that makes Brett Brown nervous.
I previously covered the odds here, but to recap: "The Sixers finished with the third worst record in the NBA. That means they have a 15.6% chance of landing the first pick; a 15.74 percent chance at the second pick; a 15.59 percent chance at the third pick; a 22.57 percent chance at the fourth pick; a 26.48 percent chance at the fifth pick; and a 4.03 percent chance at the sixth pick."
In a draft with four top rated prospects, the most likely outcome is one that would feel like a monumental let down: landing the 5th overall pick.
The current lottery format was installed by the NBA in 1994. So let's take a look at how history has treated the team with the third best odds. The player selected is contained in parenthesis:
2014: 4th (Aaron Gordon)
2013: 1st (Anthony Bennett)
2012: 4th (Dion Waiters)
2011: 5th (Jonas Valanciunas)
2010: 5th (DeMarcus Cousins)
2009: 1st (Blake Griffin)
2008: 3rd (O.J. Mayo)
2007: 6th (Yi Jianlian)
2006: 3rd (Adam Morrison)
2005: 5th (Raymond Felton)
2004: 5th (Devin Harris)
2003: 4th (Chris Bosh)
2002: 4th (Drew Gooden)
2001: 1st (Kwame Brown)
2000: 5th (Mike Miller)
1999: 1st (Elton Brand)
1998: 1st (Michael Olowokandi)
1997: 1st (Tim Duncan)
1996: 2nd (Marcus Camby)
1995: 5th (Kevin Garnett)
1994: 4th (Donyell Marshall)
The good: in the 20 years of this format, a team has only once slid down to the 6th overall pick. And while we technically have a 15.6% chance of landing the number one pick, the team slated third has actually beaten those odds, getting the top pick 5 times out of 20 (25%).
The bad: The team with the third best odds has drafted 5th overall 6 times in 20 years. That 30% mark is just better than the expected 26.4% odds of it happening.
The most surprising: how infrequently the team slated third has parlayed that into either the second or third overall pick. It has happened only once each. In 2008, the Minnesota Timberwolves were slated third and ended up drafting O.J. Mayo with the third overall pick. In 1996 — the same draft in which the Sixers selected Allen Iverson first overall — the Toronto Raptors nabbed UMass big man Marcus Camby with the second overall pick.
Despite the odds, my gut instict says the Sixers will pick either 2nd or 3rd overall. It hasn't happened often, so maybe we are long overdue. As long as we can avoid sliding past 4 though, we should be able to get a top flight talent in Karl Anthony-Towns, Jahlil Okafor, D'Angelo Russell, or Emmanuel Mudiay.
