On the surface, the Philadelphia Phillies faithful either believe they can be competitive all summer, while some others have concerns for a batting order without Bryce Harper. But drawing up the lineup card, though, might be more challenging for manager Rob Thomson, although it is workable against right-handed hurlers. Translation: They’ll face fewer lefties.
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With and Without Harper:
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Phillies with less service time are improving with each new challenge: Seranthony Dominguez and Jose Alvarado got their first taste of the World Series before struggling in the Fall Classic. However, they either needed the initial experience and/or were on fumes. Plus Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott also benefited.
Put Another Way:
“Continuous improvement is better than delayed perfection.” – Mark Twain
Eventually, the Fightins will have a balanced batting order with Harper in the three hole and Kyle Schwarber in the sixth spot. Effectiveness, though, will be lower due to Darick Hall hitting cleanup. Ergo, skippers with solid left-handed relievers can face Hall and Schwarber and pitch around Nick Castellanos.
Having a balanced everyday nine limits the opposition’s relief options in the final frames: two right-side bats between Schwarber and Harper. But Schwarber is mostly a slow starter, yet one exception was 2021, where he excelled as the leadoff man. Though, the Phils didn’t have an alternative, like they do now with Trea Turner.
While Schwarber in the one hole with Hall hitting cleanup is workable, Marsh and Stott could bat before Schwarber leading off later in June. So, the solution compensating for a slow start will probably be the six spot for Schwarber to avoid Schwarber, Marsh and Stott batting consecutively.
Better news is temporarily replacing the production of Harper and Jean Segura with Turner and Hall. In fact, the red pinstripes can stay within striking distance through May, until Schwarber heats up in June, and Harper adds his potent bat to the offensive attack. Moreover, Castellanos is a strong candidate to bounce back.
Phillies Projected Lineups with and without Harper:
| # | POS. | REGULARS with | # | POS. | REGULARS without |
| 1 | SS | Trea Turner | 1 | SS | Trea Turner |
| 2 | 1B | Rhys Hoskins | 2 | 1B | Rhys Hoskins |
| 3 | DH | *Bryce Harper | 3 | C | J.T. Realmuto |
| 4 | C | J.T. Realmuto | 4 | DH | *Darick Hall |
| 5 | RF | Nick Costellanos | 5 | RF | Nick Costellanos |
| 6 | LF | *Kyle Schwarber | 6 | LF | *Kyle Schwarber |
| 7 | 3B | Alec Bohm | 7 | 3B | Alec Bohm |
| 8 | CF | *Brandon Marsh | 8 | CF | *Brandon Marsh |
| 9 | 2B | *Bryson Stott | 9 | 2B | * Bryson Stott |
* left-handed hitter.
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Phillies 1 through 9:
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Although Schwarber only averaged .185 until June, he could leadoff with a short leash. But Turner could replace him atop the batting order and be a run-scoring machine with his bat and legs. He, certainly, has the talent and track record. Moreover, his presence will ease doubts about Harper’s absence.
In the two hole, Hoskins –who hits for 30-homer power– will continue in that role because the two spot, like batting cleanup, is numerically an RBI slot. And most franchises employ this approach because it has produced the desired results. But if some club discovers a better method for success, it will change.
For 2-3 months, Realmuto will hit third until Harper’s return. Stat-wise, he had increased production when he had rest, like some days off during the Toronto series and the All-Star break. But the catcher is one of those guys who wants to play 162 games. Last season, he appeared in 139 contests.
Combined Phillies Projected Lineups:
Harper & Segura:
- 2022: 197 Gms., 733 PA, 204 H, .278, 28 HR, 110 RBI, a 122 wRC+ (22% over overall average), 24 SB and 10 CS.
Turner & Hall:
- 2022: 202 Gms., 850 PA, 228 H, .268, 30 HR, 116 RBI, a 124 wRC+ (24% over overall average), 27 SB and 3 CS.
Hall hit fourth during his call-up to fill in for Harper while he rehabbed his hand injury. However, he likely won’t hit third like number three, but he could also be a left-handed bat off the bench when a southpaw is the opposition’s starter. And even though he’ll have a first-half opportunity, it won’t guarantee a full 162 on the active roster. He must earn it.
What would a rebound for Castellanos be in ’23? Well, he could go from .263 to .290, 13 to 30 bombs and 62 to 90 RBIs. Despite negative assumptions by doubting Thomases, though, a bounce-back isn’t a far-fetched expectation. More likely than not, the right fielder spent the offseason determined to overcome a career-bad year.
Hitting sixth through May’s end, Schwarber could return to the one hole in June with Harper batting cleanup shortly thereafter. For the Washington Nationals, though, Turner was mostly in two spot behind Schwarber, and that was a powerful one-two punch. But whether the lineup is clicking or struggling, a change in June will be up for consideration.
Realistically, Bohm –despite a .280 average– will likely hit in the seven hole. And even though he could slot higher, the Phillies will probably want to separate Schwarber from Marsh and Stott. But keep in mind, Marsh and Stott could be batting before leadoff-hitting Schwarber: a different dynamic.
Combined Phillies Projected Lineups:
Bryce Harper, 30:
- 2022: 99 Gms., 426 PA, 106 H, .286, 18 HR, 65 RBI, an .877 OPS, a 2.4 fWAR, a 138 wRC+ (38% over overall average offensive production), 11 SB and 4 CS.
Jean Segura, almost 33:
- 2022: 98 Gms., 387 PA, 98 H, .277, 10 HR, 45 RBI, a .723 OPS, a 1.7 fWAR, a 105 wRC+ (5% over overall average), 13 SB and 6 CS.
Trea Turner, 29.5:
- 2022: 106 Gms., 708 PA, 106 H, .298, 21 HR, 100 RBI, an .809 OPS, a 6.3 fWAR, a 128 wRC+ (28% over overall average), 27 SB and 3 CS.
Darick Hall, 27.5:
- 2022: 42 Gms., 142 PA, 34 H, .250, 9 HR, 16 RBI, an .804 OPS, a 0.4 fWAR, a 120 wRC+ (20% over overall average).
Harper & Segura:
- 2022: 197 Gms., 733 PA, 204 H, .278, 28 HR, 110 RBI, a 122 wRC+ (22% over overall average), 24 SB and 10 CS.
Turner & Hall:
- 2022: 202 Gms., 850 PA, 228 H, .268, 30 HR, 116 RBI, a 124 wRC+ (24% over overall average), 27 SB and 3 CS.
Hitting coach Kevin Long made an immediate change in Marsh’s plate approach by eliminating some moving parts. Therefore, he hit .226 for the Los Angeles Angels in 92 contests and .288 for the Phils in 41 games. The red pinstripes, though, picked him up for his defense and the decent possibility of an improved bat.
From Aug. 1 through campaign’s end, Stott had a .290 average and a .276 mark for the second half. So, the growing pains for Marsh and Stott fall within the three-summers projection for most regulars to make an impact then or after their second year. And earlier timelines indicate a player with superstar potential.
Although Harper’s projected return is after the All-Star break, he is probably an exception to come back a month sooner. And Thomson will rearrange his everyday nine accordingly. And if the Phillies stay within striking distance during his absence, the Fightins could make the National League East a three-team race.
With Harper taking the field in the second half, left field will still have defense based on making the regular plays. But keep in mind, naysayers won’t think of Greg Luzinski from 1980 and Pat Burrell from 2008, and they’ll conclude that the left fielder’s defense could affect 2023. But what did 2022 have more of? Obstacles!
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NEXT: Developing Magic
