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| Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
The answer to that title- not quite. However, things are pretty close to set.
The Phillies, in cutting Kevin Frandsen yesterday, have 37 players on the 40 man roster now. They have nine non-roster invitees still in camp yet as well. Given that you have to be on the 40 man roster to be on the 25 man roster, let's set them aside for a second. Here is what we know about the 37 players on the 40 man roster, and their relationship to the eventual 25 man roster:
- Seven players on this roster are already optioned to the minors- Joseph, Collier, Altherr, Gillies, Dugan, Garcia, and Horst. That leaves us with 30 players left to consider.
- Hamels, Galvis, Ruf, and Adams are all definitely heading for the opening day DL, while Miguel Gonzalez and Ethan Martin seem destined to be on the DL as well. That leaves us with 24 players left to be considered.
- Jon Pettibone is definitely behind schedule, so he probably won't be on the opening day roster as the fifth starter, even if they carry one. Cameron Rupp probably can't make the team unless they cut Nieves off of the roster, since they won't carry three catchers north. In other words, we're at 22 players to be considered.
- Of those 22, the eight position players- Howard, Utley, Asche, Rollins, Ruiz, Byrd, Revere, and Brown- are all locks, and on the team.
- Of the remaining 14, four starting pitchers are coming north with this team for sure- Lee, Burnett, Kendrick, and Hernandez.
- Of the remaining 10, seven are relievers, and Papelbon, Bastardo, and Diekman are locks. Lincoln, De Fratus, Rosenberg, and Aumont are all under consideration for the final four slots.
- The remaining three players on the roster are Nieves, Mayberry, and Cesar Hernandez.
What that appears to show us is that the Phillies, with three vacancies on their 40 man roster, have needs to fill their 25 man roster out at fifth starting pitcher, a back-up for shortstop and in the infield generally, and a need for another outfielder, particularly a left-handed one. That is assuming that the 22 players under consideration are all on. I do not assume that. I assume that at least one relief spot is still open, and that most of the bench is still open.
There are at least seven non-roster invitees still in the mix for spots on this team. Bobby Abreu, Tony Gwynn Jr., Reid Brignac, and Ronnie Cedeno are all in the mix for bench spots. Shawn Camp is in the mix for a bullpen slot, while Jeff Manship and David Buchanan are in the mix for the fifth starter slot. I believe all of this leaves the following final week of camp battles to be settled:
- Fifth Starter- This is essentially a Manship vs. Buchanan battle, though the progress of Pettibone could weigh heavily here. If Pettibone is doing well in his return, and will be ready in a week or two, the Phillies might decide to take neither north, and just rough their way through it early. Same could be said if Camp is beating out Aumont or another reliever, and they can't clear another spot to give him. Also, since both of these guys are off the 40 man now, they're kind of competing against all other non-roster guys for a spot. With that said, it's Manship-Buchanan.
- Back-Up Outfielders- There are two spots available for three guys, Mayberry, Abreu, and Gwynn Jr. Before you give Mayberry a big edge for having a 40 man slot, remember that if he loses out on this spot to Gwynn Jr. and Abreu, he just gets cut and loses his 40 man spot too, so it's a one-for-one deal. I think Abreu is probably safely on at this point, as a lefty who can grind out good at-bats, DH in week one, and a guy who gets his decision by Wednesday. That leaves Gwynn Jr. vs. Mayberry for a spot, if you follow my line of thinking, which Lord only knows if it matches Ruben's. Mayberry probably has a slim, slim edge because he can back-up first too.
- Back-Up Infielders- With Frandsen cut and Galvis on the DL, Hernandez would appear to be on the team, not "contending" for a spot. With that said, that could leave Brignac and Cedeno battling for a spot. Cedeno may be the better known name, but Brignac seems to be more versatile to me. It's not totally out of the box to think both could make it, and Hernandez could be listed as an outfielder, though I doubt it.
- The Bullpen- I think three slots are filled, but four aren't. Of the four guys with roster spots, I think Aumont is in the weakest shape. Rosenberg's ability to go multiple innings will help him. De Fratus, in my view, deserves a real shot in the big leagues, and this is a good time for it. Lincoln was just picked up, so I think he makes it too. So, does Aumont and all the headaches he causes, beat out Camp, and perhaps even Manship and Buchanan?
So with all of that, here is my roster prediction right now:
- Starting eight- Revere, Rollins, Utley, Howard, Byrd, Brown, Ruiz, Asche.
- Starting Rotation- Lee, Burnett, Kendrick, Hernandez, Manship.
- Bench- Nieves, Hernandez, Brignac, Abreu, Mayberry.
- Bullpen- Papelbon, Bastardo, Diekman, De Fratus, Rosenberg, Lincoln, Aumont.
- Last three off- Gwynn Jr., Camp, Cedeno.
- DL- Hamels, Adams, Ruf, Galvis, Martin, Gonzalez, Pettibone
- 40 Man, Minors- Joseph, Gillies, Altherr, Collier, Dugan, Garcia, Horst, Rupp
I think there's a chance the last three off accept assignments to AAA, though it's slim that all of them do. I'd like to see them go down though, since this team might need to try something different soon. I also hold out the possibility that they carry one last pitcher, and bring Gwynn north to see what happens.
