By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 
MLB free-agency began at 12:01 a.m., meaning that the Philadelphia Phillies are now free to sign any eligible free-agents. While Ian Desmond has been connected to the Phillies, the best bet is that the team will have a rather quiet offseason, choosing to make smaller upgrades to the lineup and adding veterans to both the stating rotation and the bullpen.
So if you’re here looking for the Phillies to make Cliff Lee-type splashes in free-agency, you’re probably two years too early. If you are looking at four less sexy names that the team could realistically sign, here’s a few names to keep in mind.
Jon Jay: Jay has been an inconsistent (sometimes very good) fielder throughout his career, but offensively he fits with the team. A career .287/.352/.384 hitter, Jay would give the Phillies a steady veteran who has deep (58 games worth) playoff experience.
The 31-year-old player is the type of piece that would likely open the season as a starter, but if the Phillies ended up with three better outfielders, Jay could still be an effective bench piece or even someone that general manager Matt Klentak could turn around and trade.
Even if signing Jay would require a multi-year commitment, it wouldn’t be one that would prevent the Phillies from signing a bigger free-agent when the right situation presents itself (see: November 2018).
Derek Holland: I wrote last week about the Phillies potentially trading for Holland, who ultimately wasn’t traded and became a free-agent.
Holland posted a 10-9 ERA with a 3.42 ERA and a 4.3 WAR (per FanGraphs) in 2013, while pitching 213 innings. Though his career has been plagued by injuries, when he’s been healthy he’s normally been at least a reliable innings eater. He’s thrown over 175 innings three times in his career, making him potentially valuable to a Phillies team that will need innings eaters late in the 2017 season.
With Aaron Nola on a potential innings limit, Vince Velasquez’s injury history and uncertainty about the future’s of both Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton with the team, Holland could be a good veteran option coming off of a down year.
Alex Avila: The guess here is that the Phillies will attempt to retain A.J. Ellis, which would allow them to open the season with Cameron Rupp, Jorge Alfaro and Ellis. However, if the Phillies trade Rupp, Ellis alone wouldn’t be a good enough backup for Alfaro, who has played in three games at the major league level.
Avila, who is a former All-Star, would provide the Phillies with a few things. First, he’s a veteran, which is reportedly something that the Phillies want to have around their young catchers. Second, he’s a left-handed bat and presumably could play some games over at first base if someone like Cody Asche were to be under-performing badly.
Jason Hammel: If the Phillies aren’t able to retain Jeremy Hellickson, they are going to need a veteran arm to replace him and eat innings. (They probably need two veteran arms, but financially, the Phillies probably wouldn’t pay Hellickson the $17.2 million qualifying offer salary and sign Hammel for over $10 million per season.)
Hammel likely wouldn’t give the Phillies as good of production as they got from Hellickson in 2016, but the team could afford to give him a three-year deal, and he has pitched at least 166 innings six different times in his career.
The nuggets
- The Phillies declined Charlie Morton’s $9.5 million option for 2017, but I think the team would be wise to bring him back for $6 or $7 million per season. The 32-year-old had very good advanced numbers, albeit in just three plus starts, prior to tearing his hamstring in April.
- Had the Miami Marlins not re-signed Martin Prado, he would have been a perfect fit for the Phillies.
- Andres Blanco will probably quietly exit Philadelphia this off-season, but I expect him to draw his fair share of interest and ultimately land with a contender.
- Jeremy Hellickson had a 3.71 ERA in 2016, while he has a 3.90 career ERA. He had a 3.98 FIP in 2016, but has a career FIP of 4.30. He had a 3.99 xFIP in 2016, but has a 4.27 career xFIP. Wherever Hellickson pitches in 2017, he will eat innings and be fairly productive in doing so. But don’t expect him to be as good as he was at times during 2016.
