Matt Swartz from Hardball Times wrote a comprehensive piece that seeks to answer a question: What went wrong with the Phillies? The headline is, "Extending Ryan Howard is Not What Killed the Phillies". But this piece is much, much more.
Swartz notes, even if the deal went well, the Phillies were still doomed:
The Phillies certainly would have gotten more value by spending $25 million in each of the last three years just about any other way, but that typically nets only about 3-4 wins per year when spent on average free agents. Blaming the demise of the Phillies on the Howard contract understates just the magnitude of the decline. Philadelphia has averaged 21 games out of first place and 13 out of the Wild Card. Three MVPs out of Howard would not have let the Phillies sniff a playoff berth.
There is much, much more, as Swartz looks carefully into the Phillies' draft, how young players perform, and just how the Phillies "win now" trades went. Read Swartz's piece here.
