Wednesday, the Phillies avoided a sweep against the Houston Astros behind a stellar performance by Aaron Nola. The 24-year old was spectacular—limiting the high-powered Astros to four hits while striking out ten over six shutout innings. The offense backed up Nola’s brilliant performance with nine runs to help the righthander earn his eighth win of the season. As the Phillies and Nola prepare themselves for the last few months of the season, it might be time to start talking about Nola being one of the better pitchers in the game.
When the Phillies selected Aaron Nola with seventh pick in 2014, they did so knowing that he was the most Major-League ready arm in the draft. Nola wasn’t no time getting to the show and immediately showed glimpses of being a future front-end starter—posting a 3.59 ERA in 77.2 innings in 2015. With the early success, Nola generated great buzz—especially from the local fan base. That buzz came with high expectations that he fell short of when talking basic numbers. In an injury-shortened season, Nola posted a 4.78 ERA in 111 innings. While the ERA was much higher than most had hoped, Nola was elite in advanced metrics, posting a 3.08 FIP and xFIP. Of all starting pitchers to throw at least 100 innings, Nola ranked eighth in FIP and fourth in xFIP.
Nola didn’t luck into those numbers, either. He was also very good at limiting hard contact. Per FanGraphs, Nola ranked 24th in baseball at preventing hard contact last season. If you’re striking batters out while limiting walks, home runs and hard contact—you’re going to be just fine. In fact, Nola ranked 6th in soft contact last year—another sign that his 4.78 ERA was a fluke.
Fast forward to this season and Aaron Nola is back to being praised as one of the best young starters in the game. This shouldn’t have come as a shock as the numbers above would lead us to believe he was okay even in a “down” year.
Including last night’s start, Nola now ranks 14th among qualified pitchers in Wins Above Replacement. Along with that, Nola ranks 11th in ERA, 9th in FIP and 12th in xFIP. Basically, he has been elite. Much of the attention comes from his last seven starts. In those starts, Nola has allowed no more than two runs while getting through seven innings in five of them. That is exactly what top of the rotation arms do.
Not only does Nola limit walks and home runs while generating strikeouts, but when batters are making contact, it is generally on the ground. This season, Nola has the 19th highest groundball rate among qualified pitchers.
Nola may be getting better, too. This season, Nola has found extra life on his fastball. At no point in his career has Nola thrown as hard as he’s currently throwing. Here is a small chart with the average speed on each of Nola’s four pitches, per BrooksBaseball.
|
Year |
Fourseam |
Sinker |
Change |
Curve |
|
2015 |
91.14 |
90.58 |
82.5 |
76.93 |
|
2016 |
91.26 |
90.65 |
82.26 |
76.98 |
|
2017 |
92.8 |
92 |
84.31 |
77.68 |
As we can clearly see, Nola has added to each pitch since he came into the league in 2015. That extra velocity may be causing some weaker contact and more missed bats, too. It may not be a coincidence that FanGraphs pitch values currently ranks 2017 as Nola’s best season with his fastball while he’s throwing his hardest. Sticking with that, Nola ranks in a tie with Zack Greinke and Jeremy Hellickson for the 16th best fastball by run value this season. That isn’t the only pitch where Nola shines, though. He currently ranks 6th in run value on his curveball.
To recap to this point; Aaron Nola has now had elite advanced metrics for three consecutive seasons. He is throwing harder than at any point in his major-league career. He is on an absolute heater in his last seven starts.
But we aren’t done just yet! Nola is back to throwing more first-pitch strikes—up to 63-percent from 60.7-percent a season ago. Along with that, Nola is also generating more swinging strikes than at any point in his career. His 10.4-percent swinging strike-rate has him tied for the 26th best among starters. The career-high in swinging-strikes also aligns with Nola allowing less contact on pitches outside the zone. Per FanGraphs, Nola is allowing contact on 59.8-percent of pitches outside of the zone—which is down from 61.5-percent in 2016 and 66.1-percent in 2015. In this case, the lower the number, the better as this metric captures contact on swings.
At the same time, Nola is also allowing less contact on pitches in the zone. This season, Nola is allowing contact on 83.8-percent of pitches offered at in the zone. This rate is down from 85.9-percent in 2016 and 87.3-percent in 2015.
There is still a long way to go for Nola and the Phillies this season—but it’s time to recognize Aaron Nola as a true front-line starter in the Major Leagues. Since he has come into the league, Nola has been very good to elite in the all advanced metrics. It does appear that the 24-year old righthander is also getting better—which is a scary thought for the rest of baseball.
