Because everything revolves around our beloved Eagles, here is a quick take on last night’s national championship game through Eagles colored glasses.
Marcus Mariota uninspiring
Based on my twitter feed, I suspect that this was the first glimpse most Eagles fans got of Mariota. I further suspect they came away at least somewhat disappointed. To be sure, Mariota did not have his best game. But to be fair, his receivers did not help him much; the two key drops on third downs early in the game enabled Ohio State to grab ahold of the lead and never look back.
A number of you were openly clamoring for Mariota to play poorly in the hopes that it will somehow cause him to fall to the Eagles in the draft. Last week, I wrote about how unlikely it is for the Eagles to get him in the upcoming draft and I don’t think last night’s performance changes things.
Here’s why: we have now entered the beauty pageant stage of the NFL talent evaluation process. Teams will dig into the tape and study every game Mariota has played, learning all about his strengths and his weaknesses. They will conduct extensive due diligence, speaking with coaches, teammates, family members and friends, looking for any signs of red flags. And they will put him through workouts – albeit in shorts and a tee shirt, to confirm what the tape shows.
By all accounts, Mariota should pass these tests with flying colors. He is known as a team first guy, great leader, with high intelligence, and zero character concerns. Chip Kelly compared Mariota's football intelligence to Peyton Manning last night. Given his athleticism and arm talent, he should excel in the team workouts too.
Add this all up, and I don’t see how he drops too far in the draft. His draft stock might take a minor hit after this game, especially if it lines up with red flags teams are seeing when studying the tape. But there would have to be some serious issues to cause him to drop far enough for the Birds to get him.
Alarming similarities between the Eagles and Oregon teams
If you watched the game last night, it likely brought back feelings of déjà vu watching the Eagles this year. That is because a lot of the issues that plagued the Eagles all season – redzone struggles, losing the time of possession battle, and giving up a ton of yards – were areas in which Oregon struggled as well. Since both programs were created by Chip Kelly, it is fair to ask whether these similarities are the result of happenstance or are design flaws in Kelly's otherwise well oiled machine. Let' take a look.
Redzone struggles
Last night, Oregon went into the redzone four times, but came away with only one touchdown, two field goals, and a turnover on downs. Mariota went only 2 for 5 for 10 yards and a touchdown pass. And this came against a team that had allowed opponents to score touchdowns 73% of the time this year, third worse in the BCS (ahead of only Texas Tech and North Texas).
And those redzone struggles were consistent problem all season for Mariota and the Ducks. Mariota completed only about 41% of his passes in the red zone heading into Monday’s game. And while the Ducks offense was prolific this season, it was ranked only 32nd in red zone touchdown percentage. (In 2013, Oregon ranked 36th).
Sounds oddly familiar, no? The Eagles had a good offense this season, at least in terms of yards per game. However, they ranked 23rd in the league in red zone conversion rate, turning just 49.15 percent of their trips into touchdowns.
The success of Chip Kelly’s spread offense attack is predicated on their ability to stretch defenses both "horizontally and vertically" – as Chip Kelly likes to say. But in the redzone, the field is condensed, making it harder to find open space. While one season is too small of a sample size to draw any concrete solutions, it will be interesting to see if this problem persists for the Eagles next year.
Bend but don’t break defense and the ability to create turnovers
Some Eagles fans on twitter were surprised by Oregon’s inability to stop the run and get off the field. But this is largely par for the course. This season, Oregon ranked 102nd out of 128 total teams in yards allowed. They were never a shutdown defense. They gave up big yards, but were very opportunistic by leading the country in turnover margin.
And that is how Oregon played last night as well, giving up an alarming 538 total yards of offense, but also forcing four turnovers. (Side note: and had they converted those turnovers into more than 10 points, they likely could have won the game).
Sound familiar? It should. The Eagles were ranked 20th this year in total yards allowed, but lead the league in interceptions and recovered fumbles.
The Eagles were equally opportunistic last season. So it might be unrealistic to expect the Eagles to have a shutdown defense under Chip Kelly. Expect a bend but don’t break defense that forces a lot of turnovers. Which is still a pretty good thing to have in today's NFL.
Pace and Time of Possession
Oregon averaged less than three punts per game this year, but were forced into six punts last night. Their inability to sustain drives lead to a huge disparity in time of possession, with Ohio State having a 37:29 to 22:31 advantage. This was never more apparent than in the third quarter, where Oregon barely had the ball. By the time the fourth quarter came around, Oregon’s defenders were gassed and Ohio Stated was able to put the game away by relying on its run game.
The same could be said for the Eagles all year and it is fair to wonder if this is the Achilles heel to Chip Kelly’s brilliant offensive scheme. There are no doubts that his offense creates huge issues for opposing defenses; the record yards and points validate that. However, against really good teams, especially those that can dominate along the offensive and defensive lines, Chip Kelly’s offense struggles. It’s a problem that feeds off each other. His offense needs to string together consecutive first downs for the pace to impact the defense. However, if the offense fails to get first downs, the defense would tire out. We consistently saw this issue with the Eagles against better defenses this year (think San Francisco, Seattle, etc.).
Prior to Chip Kelly's arrival, Andy Reid refused to do adjust his philosophy when it came to drafting undersized defensive players and abandoning the run game. It ultimately was his undoing. It will be interesting to see if Chip Kelly suffers the same fate as his predecessor, or will show a willingness to adjust based on game situation and opponent.
Chip Kelly (and Oregon's) lack of a championship
A common criticism last night on Twitter was that Chip Kelly has never won a championship at any level; not with New Hampshire, Oregon or Philadelphia. Some even went so far as to use Oregon's loss last night as some sort of indictment on Chip Kelly's offense or abilities as a head coach. But that is just silly. Chip Kelly is a heckuva coach, and just because he has not won a championship yet, does not mean he will always come up short.
