This truly is the best time of the year. America’s game is
starting back up, and the next seven months will be full of many highs and
lows. 2013 brings with it a groundbreaking season of baseball, with both the
American and National League playing host to 15 teams. Whether you love or
loathe the new system, you have to be excited to see how this historic season
plays out.
When I began writing for Philliedelphia a few months ago,
this was one of the posts I most looked forward to writing. Now, I can share with
other fans my thought process when it comes to predicting the upcoming season.
So, let the predictions begin.
American League
AL East Champion – Tampa Bay Rays (90-72)
AL Central Champion – Detroit Tigers (96-66)
AL West Champion – Los Angeles Angels (91-71)
AL Wild Cards – Texas Rangers (90-72) & Toronto Blue Jays (89-73)
AL MVP – Mike Trout (Angels)
AL Cy Young – Yu Darvish (Rangers)
AL Rookie of the Year – Jackie Bradley Jr. (Red Sox)
AL Manager of the Year – Ned Yost (Royals)
On the same coast but in a different league, the Tampa Bay
Ray’s pitching will propel them back to a division title. David Price, who is
already a given to perform well, and young slingers like Matt Moore will couple
well with dominant closer Fernando Rodney to shut down the rest of the AL East.
The only thing keeping this team from reaching the 95 win plateau is a
struggling offense. One run games will be the norm this season for Joe Maddon’s
squad.
Last year, the Tigers took quite some time to warm up. This
year will be a much different story. There won’t be much competition coming
from within the division. While the Indians and Royals will be much improved
over last year, neither will have the talent to compete with the Tigers’
powerhouse combination of Verlander and Cabrera. Jim Leyland will help guide
the Detroit team to over 95 wins.
The West was the most difficult division for me to predict.
It always seems that the winners of the offseason sweepstakes are never the
team that succeeds in the season itself. This team is different. Pujols has had
time to settle into a new uniform. Trout will replicate last year’s numbers.
Hamilton will have no trouble flipping teams within the division. Other than
the Tigers, there is no lineup that, on paper, seems so intimidating.
In the Wild Card scene, it is the tale of two teams. The
Toronto Blue Jays have not fared too well in recent season. However, some young
talent coupled with a head-spinning trade with Miami will give the team the
push it has been looking for. Look for two past NL East Aces to lead the team
(Dickey and Johnson). As for the Texas Rangers, last season ended in extreme
disappointment. They seemed destined to make yet another World Series run until
they were swept by the surprising Athletics in the last series of the season
and knocked out of the playoffs by the Orioles.
Mike Trout will be Mike Trout. Yu Darvish, now with a year
of service in the U.S. under his belt, will figure out how to use his 16
different pitches to stun hitters. Jackie Bradley has hit over .400 in Spring
Training for the Red Sox and just made their Opening Day roster. His only
competition will come from the Ranger’s Jurickson Profar. In Kansas City, the
young guns will come together and take second place in the AL Central with
about 88 wins.
National League
NL East Champion – Washington Nationals (101-61)
NL Central Champion – Cincinnati Reds (94-68)
NL West Champion – San Francisco Giants (90-72)
NL Wild Cards – Atlanta Braves (92-70) & Milwaukee Brewers (91-71)
NL MVP – Joey Votto (Reds)
NL Cy Young – Matt Cain (Giants) *Hamels in a very close second*
NL Rookie of the Year – Julio Teheran (Braves)
NL Manager of the Year – Ron Roenicke (Brewers)
I know. I must be crazy or on some sort of narcotics. But
let me explain myself, and I’ll tell you why I don’t have the Phillies in the
playoffs yet.
First off, the Nationals will run away with the Eastern
division from Day 1. I’m not going to sit here and list the names of the guys
on that roster. You know who they are, and you know you will hate them all season.
But you cannot deny the raw talent this team has. 100 wins is very reasonable.
The Reds look good. They really do. Joey Votto will be the
stand out once again, even putting up MVP caliber numbers. Shin Soo Choo was a
pretty pickup for Dusty Baker, whose intelligent baseball mind will utilize
Choo to his full potential. The only issue I have with the team is their
rotation. Cueto and Latos will be great atop said rotation, but the final three
(Arroyo, Bailey, and Leake) are question marks. Quality starts throughout the
season will help them repeat as division champions.
Los Angeles and San Francisco are going to battle it out all
season, and this will severely hurt one of them. Even though the Dodgers broke
the bank in the offseason, the Giants are still the defending World Series
Champions and have improved themselves quietly. And because these two squads
will cost each other games all season long, it will open the door for another
team to take the second Wild Card spot. The Giants will get the last laugh once
again in this rivalry.
The Wild Card. This is the exact place that many Phillies
fans believe the team will fall. They also seem to agree that the Braves will
take the other Wild Card slot. I’m comfortable with half of this. Some
‘experts’ don’t see the Braves outfield performing well together, but that
doesn’t fly with me. The Uptons are going to open some eyes, and Heyward is
going to step back into the spotlight. 92 wins puts them in the playoffs. In
Milwaukee, trouble has been “Brewing” (puns!) with Ryan Braun ever since he won
the NL MVP. However, something about that team intrigues me. There are only a
handful of household names on the team, but that always seems to be the perfect
formula for success. The late addition of Kyle Lohse may have been exactly what
they were looking for.
Joey Votto’s bat will come alive, and his stat line will
read something like .310/38/135. Matt Cain is solid just about every season,
and this is the year he is finally able to outduel names like Kershaw and
Hamels. Julio Teheran has been one of the Braves top prospects for a few years
now, and getting a full season in the majors will expose his true talents. Ron
Roenicke will get the nod for boosting the Brewers into a playoff spot.
2013 Playoffs
Wild Card Games
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Texas Rangers
Winner: Toronto Blue Jays
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Winner: Atlanta Braves
ALDS
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers
Winner: Detroit Tigers
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Winner: Tampa Bay Rays
NLDS
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Winner: Washington Nationals
San Francisco Giants vs. Cincinnati Reds
Winner: Cincinnati Reds
ALCS
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Winner: Detroit Tigers
NLCS
Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Winner: Cincinnati Reds
World Series
Cincinnati Reds vs. Detroit Tigers
2013 World Series Champions: Cincinnati Reds
Phillies Predictions
Total number of Phillies wins: 88
Number of Roy Halladay wins: 8
Who will bat the most games in the leadoff position? Ben
Revere (just about all of them)
Which pitcher will lead the team in wins? Cole Hamels (19)
How many homeruns will Ryan Howard hit? 34
So the Reds will win it all. But (and this is a big but),
this can all change with just one person. There is one person on this Phillies
roster that this entire season falls on. You all know the name:
Harry Leroy Halladay
The Phillies playoff chances rest squarely on the shoulders
of Doc. We know Hamels and Lee will perform. We know having Utley and Howard
all season will be a lot of help. But the Phillies must have Roy Halladay
performing well to make a playoff push. He does not have to be the Halladay of
old, though. If he can return to good form and finish the season with 13-15
wins, the Phillies will take the Brewers Wild Card spot. From there, just about
anything can happen.
This Phillies lineup is much more formidable than last season, and will certainly lead this team to an increased number of wins. However, this Eastern Division has become more competitive than ever, and age will become a factor. Though it does give Charlie Manuel's squad the advantage of experience, aging bodies could mean extra days off for a couple guys, and this bench is less-than-impressive. A 15 win Roy Halladay could make all the difference.
Don’t get me wrong, if the team is able to make a playoff
push without Roy, I will be ecstatic. However, I do believe Halladay is the key
to success for the Phillies. Let us all hope he can return to at least a large
fraction of his former self.
Andrew Gillen is a
writer for Philliedelphia. Follow him on Twitter @AndrewJGillen
