The last few days have been big for MLB's offseason with the Giancarlo Stanton contract along with the Braves/Cardinals trade that swapped Jason Heyward and Shelby Miller. Back in Phillies land, Ruben Amaro and company haven't really moved beyond saying the word "rebuilding" and admitting that it is the way to go.
While fans call for the departure of Howard, Utley, Rollins, Brown and others, we have to be realistic here. Though the NBA and MLB are different, the Sixers are in full rebuild mode. They traded away their best players and are starting from scratch. That isn't an option yet for the Phillies with their contractual obligations, aging veterans and such, so it is time to set the table for what is more likely to happen rather than what we want to happen. Reality hurts, so we may be looking at a similar team on the field next season.
The rebuild process is exactly what it sounds like. A process. The Phillies won't be good for a while, possibly not even before 2020. This is just the beginning. Let's take a look at who could go and who could stay:
Cole Hamels: With the Cubs reportedly engaged in talks to acquire Jordan Zimmerman and also inquiring about Jon Lester, a Hamels deal that will be "worth while" just doesn't seem possible at this point. Here's the issue – you cannot just trade Cole to trade him. Hamels is one of the premiere left-handers in the game and in my opinion, you take nothing less than at least two top 10 prospects from the other teams and two more from the top 20 who have a high ceiling. The last thing we want is another Cliff Lee to Seattle debacle. I am under the incliniation that unless the Phillies get the prospects they want, they won't deal Cole. I would hate to see him go as well, but if someone comes to you with the right deal, it is the right way to start this rebuild.
Will he be on the Phillies in 2015? Yes
Ryan Howard: Obviously, money is one issue here, but Howard's decline in offensive contributions and defensive ability is more of a problem for teams when they look at him. Sure, Kansas City may have called Amaro about Howard, but a deal still seems unlikely. An American League suitor seems like the best option, but what does Howard have that would actually help another team? People make the case that he still hits 25-30 homers and knocks in 90-95, but if you put the guy in the four hole everyday, he along with tons of other guys will make. In an ESPN article on Howard, they explain why his RBI numbers could be decieving to the eye, but could still be an option for some AL teams who's DH fared much worse.
No, the RBIs don't tell the story of Howard's value as a hitter. The more important stat is Howard's .223/.310/.380 batting line. That's good for a wOBA of .302 (weighted on-base average, not park-adjusted). Baseball-Reference estimates that Howard created five runs fewer than the average hitter given his plate appearances.
The lure in Howard is that he would be cheap if the Phillies pick up $55 million-plus of that $60 million. He's not good and definitely should not be considered for first base, but the state of DH production in 2014 was so poor that it wouldn't shock me if an AL team took a chance on him. Still, it seems unlikely in an era in which most teams prefer to rotation their other position players through the DH spot. [ESPN.com]
There was no truth to rumors that surfaced earlier in the year about the Phillies possibly releasing Howard, but that could become an option if Amaro cannot find a suitor. They have to make a decision soon on the Big Piece, because his 10/5 rights kick in early next season.
Will he be on the Phillies in 2015? No
Rollins and Utley: The Phillies double play duo for the better part of the last decade will be here in 2015, so get used to that fact. They both have 10/5 rights and Ryan Howard will get those soon if he stays. Both Jimmy and Chase have said they have no intentions of leaving and they have the ability to block trades to any team. Amaro could approach them if a deal comes up, but I don't forsee either of them going anywhere outside of Philadelphia at this point. That along with there aren't a ton of options to replace them with the exception of Freddy Galvis, who can't hit, and Cesar Hernandez, who also can't hit.
Will they be on the Phillies in 2015? Yes
Carlos Ruiz: As mentioned yesterday on Philliedelphia, Russell Martin's deal with the Blue Jays could open up the market for a Carlos Ruiz trade. Right now, Miguel Montero seems like a more attractive option since he is younger, but Chooch is one of the most well respected back stops in the games and obviously has a lot of experience having caught games from Halladay to Lee to Hamels. While a Ruiz deal seems a possibility, he is 35 and has spent time on the disabled list in parts of each of the last six seasons.
Will he be on the Phillies in 2015? Yes
Marlon Byrd: There is no doubting Byrd's value after showing he can still play right field effectively and also produce power in the lineup. The Jason Heyward deal with St. Louis may have affected the market for Byrd, but there are still teams out there who need an right-handed bat that plays corner outfield. The Reds, Tigers and Indians could all be options for the Phillies when exploring trades for Marlon.
Will he be on the Phillies in 2015? No
Domonic Brown: Brown's 2014 season was frustrating to all. Let's be honest here. Besides the month of May in 2013, Brown has been less than effective. Not just offensively either. He has misread balls in the outfield and botched easy catches as well. The best thing for Brown would be a "change of scenery" trade with a team that is looking to deal a guy who has struggled, but has shown spurts of potential in the big leagues. If Brown isn't traded, I don't think he starts. Ruf has a better offensive upside and shown he is serviceable in left.
Will he be on the Phillies in 2015? Yes, but in the minors.
Jonathan Papelbon: A name heard in trade rumors throughout the year hasn't been mentioned once this offseason. He's owed too much money and isn't necessarily viewed as an asset to team chemistry. There may not be plenty of games to save in 2015, but I expect Paps to return.
Will he be on the Phillies in 2014? Yes
Well, there you have it. I think Ben Revere is safe for now and obviously Cody Asche and Maikel Franco are likely to split time at third while Franco will see some games at first as well. If Cliff Lee comes back and shows he still has "it", I assume the Phils will look to deal him before the trade deadline.
Projected 2015 Starting Lineup: Ben Revere (CF), Jimmy Rollins (SS), Chase Utley (2B), Darin Ruf (LF), Maikel Franco (1B), Grady Sizemore (RF), Cody Asche (3B), Carlos Ruiz (C), Cole Hamels (P)
Brandon Apter, Publishing Editor for Philliedelphia.com
