The Phillies had a really tough time with starting pitching in 2015. Listen to the following names, and think about what emotions come to mind: Aaron Harang. Jerome Williams. Sean O'Sullivan. Kevin Correia. Severino Gonzalez. Dustin McGowan. Chad Billingsley. Alec Asher. David Buchanan. Even Phillippe Aumont. All of those names made starts for the Phillies in 2015. That meant a total 106 games were started by that group of players.
That makes 106 out of 162, or 65 percent of starts were mostly complete clunkers. Yes, we had a few strong David Buchanan starts, and even Aaron Harang pitched well in April, but the results were devastating to even a team that planned to lose. The damage came in terms of the bullpen, which was very much overworked. That is why the Phillies need Jeremy Hellickson.
I will not try to tell you that Hellickson is going to be an outstanding pitcher. The Phillies hope that he will be serviceable, stay healthy, and keep the games from being complete disasters. The complete disasters are what really made 2015 very difficult at times. When the bullpen has to pitch 4-5 innings a night, there are not enough arms a team can come up with to make that work.
Besides overworking the arms there to the point that they lose velocity and effectiveness, (remember Justin De Fratus?) the Phillies could not shuffle bullpen arms back and forth between AAA fast enough to cover the games.
The Phillies now have a rotation that includes:
- Aaron Nola
- Jerad Eickhoff
- Jeremy Hellickson
- Adam Morgan
- ?
Beyond Nola, Eickhoff, and Hellickson, a lot is yet to be determined. The Phillies do have some arms in the pipeline, but they would prefer NOT to put pitchers into a situation where they are clearly not ready. For a while, they were content with giving Sean O'Sullivan starts, because he was not a prospect who could be damaged by not being ready. But Alec Asher had seven difficult starts – something the team would like to avoid going forward.
Buchanan will still be around. Maybe Asher can help down the line, but only when he is ready. The Phillies will probably try to give Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez one more chance to start (though he should probably a bullpen arm). The Phillies could turn to a free agent starter.
The best name that comes to mind is former Phillies starter J.A. Happ. While Happ would be a solid arm to not kill a bullpen and pitch every five days, Happ will have some opportunities to start for contending clubs. If the Phillies were to overpay dollars-wise for Happ, the could still land him, I suppose.
The other free agent starters that the Phillies could land are much worse than Hellickson. They include names like Harang and Williams (do you want more of them?). Edwin Jackson. Roberto Hernandez. Mat Latos. Justin Masterson. Brandon Morrow. Kyle Kendrick. Chris Capuano. Sean O'Sullivan. Shaun Marcum. Trevor Cahill. Brandon Beachy. Dillon Gee. Any of these names really exciting you?
The Phillies could indeed pony up for some of the free agent starters that are more worthwhile, such as Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Kennedy, or Doug Fister, but they are probably not ready for even them, let alone the Zack Greinke and David Price free agent class. All out of the Phillies' reach when contending clubs have money to spend.
The Phillies gave up a prospect in pitcher Sam McWilliams, an eight-round pick in 2014. While I saw some, like Matt Winkleman of Phillies Minor Thoughts rate him the number 32 prospect in the system, that was a small price to pay. Remember: only 25 players are on a roster and the Phillies have some of their pieces in place already. Plus, the Phillies could recoup a better project.
If all goes well, the Phillies will see Hellickson succeed up until the July 31 trade deadline and he becomes a useful piece. At just 29 years old, the former American League Rookie of the Year very well could have some upside left. In that case, they could get something back just as an Alec Asher-type pitcher is ready to take a rotation spot.
Or, Hellickson is mediocre and helps the Phillies by giving them innings in 2016. Hellickson will be a free agent after the season, anyway. But after what we saw in 2015, Hellickson's innings are a very good thing to have on the 2016 Phillies.
