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| Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
Back in Spring Training, when people were bashing Jimmy Rollins for saying he won't allow a trade (before he reaches certain milestone, and the team would be out of it), I defended him. Ten-and-five rights are a collectively bargained right of a baseball player. You have to make it ten years in the league, and five years on one team, to get them. It's hard. He earned them, and besides, players are under-paid, considering how much the owners get to keep despite not being the product. I'll always side with the worker over the owner.
So now, we're hearing the same type of talk from Chase Utley, essentially that he doesn't want to go anywhere. He thinks this team can win, and he wants to keep trying. Chase earned this right. I kind of admire both he and Rollins' fighting spirit. I'll always be a fan of the 2008 guys, even players who I have animosity for now (Jayson Werth comes to mind).
I just wish these guys would be more open-minded to a trade.
This roster stinks. There isn't enough good stuff coming up from the minors to fix the team in 2014 or 2015, making this a bit of a rebuild even if you don't want it to be. A Major League team can't win with Dom Brown hitting .215 out there, or Ben Revere being unable to throw out catchers taking extra-bases on him. A Major League team can't win with a bench that runs out a bunch of sub-.200 hitters that are picked to be back-up fielders instead of pinch-hitters. A Major League team can't run out Phillippe Aumont either. I don't see the 2014 Phillies as capable of being an 88 win plus team, even with semi-decent seasons from Utley, Rollins, and Howard, and a health Hamels and Lee. In short, I don't think this team is good, and it needs an influx of depth, not just good years from eight to ten guys.
Utley and Rollins make the most sense. Lee's injury hurt his value. Papelbon's contract eliminates getting fair value for him right now. Adams injury probably killed a good possibility too. Howard's contract just isn't movable until the money owed gets down further. You can't move Chooch right now because no organizational catcher appears to be capable of replacing him (check out Cameron Rupp's season and Joseph's injuries and get back to me). Marlon Byrd? Sure, move him, but that's not going to move the needle that far. Kendrick and Hernandez? They might get you some parts and some cash back, but again, nothing earth shattering. I doubt Burnett would allow a trade (he could just retire since he came here to be close to home), and his hernia injury might sap value away anyway. You don't get much for trading away your John Mayberry Jr.'s, sorry.
Yes, I left a name off of there with some value. Cole Hamels. Why? I don't want to trade Cole Hamels. Cole is in his prime. Cole will probably be good through most, if not all, of his current contract, since he's 30. If you reasonably wanted to be a playoff team by 2016 or 2017 (which are actually very easily attained for a team willing to spend $190 million), or sooner, Cole would still be an ace in that range. Trading Cole Hamels might net you a lot of prospects and salary savings, but it sets your pace of getting back to being good way back.
The thing is, if Jimmy and Chase won't waive their no-trades, I'm not sure what else besides Cole could really help re-tool the overall weak roster. I hate to even consider trading Cole too, which takes me from being solidly on the "sell" side, to considering not blowing this team up during this season. In some ways, I think that's disastrous, but I think trading Cole is a disaster too.
In short, if we can't move Chase and Jimmy, I'm probably for standing pat. I think it might work out okay, but it's delaying the inevitable. In the event you can't trade them during the season, the best case scenario is that Montgomery comes to his senses and fires Ruben, and you start a rebuild in the off-season with a new GM. That's great and all, but that pretty much writes off anything good coming of 2015. How long do we want to watch an aging core play with a roster with at least ten AAA level players on it with them? If Chase and Jimmy won't go, then it's possible that our only way to respectability in the near future, and maybe the post-season, is free agency spending. We all know that's a dicey road.
I like Chase and Jimmy, and I will defend their right to block a trade. There are even decent arguments about why not to trade them right now (namely the lack of near-ready replacements). With that said, if they're still Phillies in August, i'm not sure I like any of the alternative roads forward either.
