(Photo credit: @DerekBodnerNBA)
Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsJD
No team in the NBA has been subject to more criticism than the Sam Hinkie led Philadelphia 76ers.
The old guard sees what Hinkie has done as blasphemous. They hate how blatant the Sixers have tanked, drafting injured players (Noel, Embiid) or players stuck overseas (Saric) that cannot contribute immediately, and filling their roster with D-League talent so they can increase their odds at high lottery picks.
They decry the term "asset" as though it carries some sort of nefarious connotation.
They laugh when the Sixers and their fans talk about #TheProcess, acting as though it is a foregone conclusion that the plan will fail.
They look at Hinkie as a nerd with a pocket protector and a computer that has no clue how to build a team, similar to the way old baseball scouts used to look at Billie Beane and the analytics movement in baseball.
After last night, it will be fun to hear what new criticisms they come up with next.
Because make no mistake, the current scorecard reads: Sam Hinkie 1, Old Basketball Heads: 0.
To be clear, the Sixers are not guaranteed to win multiple titles over the long haul because they got the number 3 pick last night. But it is safe to say that the bold strategy the Sixers have employed — the same strategy that has been resoundingly criticized by the old guard — is working.
Consider the following: at the end of the 2012 NBA season, the Sixers were 34-48. Their swing and miss on the Andrew Bynum trade was worse than Ryan Howard flailing at a breaking ball low and away.
Their roster consisted of Jrue Holiday, Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner, Spencer Hawes, Lavoy Allen, Arnett Moultrie, Nick Young, and Jason Richardson's broken ankles.
They gave up a future first round pick and promising center Nik Vucevic in that Bynum trade.
They traded a future first round pick to acquire Moultrie, who is so good he is playing in China after just two seasons in the NBA.
And their salary cap was loaded with bad contracts and had almost no room for flexibility.
In other words, they had one meaningful asset in Jrue Holiday, a 24 year old point guard fresh off his first All-Star appearance. Holiday had little long term value as he shot a woeful 33% from the field and had a pedestrian 1.7/1.0 assist to turnover ratio. But he provided immediate sell-high value for any team enticed by his inflated statistics that resulted from playing on a bad team.
That is the team Sam Hinkie inherited. It was a mess. And everyone in the NBA knew it.
Hinkie realized two things fairly quickly on. One, that team — at its best day — was going to be a 6-8 seed in the East destined for basketball purgatory: not good enough to ever having a legitimate chance to win in the playoffs, but not bad enough to obtain a high draft pick to grab a franchise caliber player.
The second thing he realized was that that marque free agents wouldn't sign there. Why would they?To play with Holiday and Evan Freaking Turner?
So instead, he tore it down. Yes, it was painful to watch, if you even bothered to watch at all (and given how bad they were, I wouldn't blame you if you tuned out). But in just two short seasons, he has parlayed that mess of a franchise into the following:
- Nerlens Noel, an elite rim protector and defensive big that has plus athleticism and comparable production to what Hall of Famer David Robinson put up in his rookie year;
- Joel Embiid, who, if healthy, has the chance to be a transformative two-way player and has drawn comparisons to Hakeem Olajuwon;
- Dario Saric, the 6'10 point forward that has won the European Young Player of the Year award two years in a row and has drawn comparisons to Toni Kukoc and Lamaar Odom;
- The #3 pick in this NBA Draft;
- Four, I repeat, four first round picks in the 2016 NBA draft, including the Lakers pick which has a chance to be in the top 5;
- At least $30 million in projected cap space (The Sixers have only $29.8 million in salary committed for the 2015-16 season, while the projected salary cap is $61.7 million). BasketballInsiders.com projects that the number can reach as high as $42.3 million.
That doesn't include the countless second round picks that Hinkie has hoarded over the years (and if you think they are worthless, consider that the Sixers got both K.J. McDaniels and Jeremi Grant in the second round last year).
While you have a better chance at accurately predicting the weather next week than you do at predicting what Hinkie will do this offseason, he has provided the Sixers a great foundation upon which he can build.
They can use that excess cap space this year to go after quality free agents. While it is unrealistic to expect Jimmy Butler or Kawhi Leonard to sign here, they could easily get some mid-level quality guys to build a semi-competitive team.
Or, they can sit back and let the 2015-16 season play out, gather more high lottery picks (their own and possibly the Lakers), and make a strong push for free agents or trades the following summer.
Add to the mix Dario Saric and up to four first round talents, and the possibilities for this team are endless.
To put this in perspective, look at their projected starting lineups for the following two season:
|
2015-16 |
2016-17 |
PG |
D’Angelo Russell |
D’Angelo Russell |
SG |
Tony Wroten |
First Round Player |
SF |
Robert Covington |
Dario Saric |
PF |
Nerlens Noel |
Nerlens Noel |
C |
Joel Embiid |
Joel Embiid |
Bench |
Jerami Grant |
First Round Player |
Bench |
Hollis Thompson |
First Round Player |
Bench |
Ish Smith |
First Round Player |
Bench |
Free Agent |
Jerami Grant |
Bench |
Free Agent |
Tony Wroten |
Bench |
Free Agent |
Robert Covington |
In two years, Wroten, Covington and Grant (assuming they are still here), can be moved to roles more situated for their respective talents. Wroten can be an instant offensive spark plug off the bench. Covington can be a stretch 3/4 that provides floor spacing. And Grant can be a quality rotational player that brings good defense and steal rates along with plus athleticism. That is a deep squad, and it does not even account for any potential free agents they sign in the process.
As Chris Sheridan pointed out last night:
"You want long-term winners? I’ll take the Sixers over the Wolves 10 times out of 10… In the long run, this will go down as just one of the years when Hinkie’s tanking strategy was accumulating dividends. They are going to be a beast for years and years to come, and the NBA will eventually change the lottery system to prevent another Hinkie from jobbing the system. But mark my words, the Sixers were the biggest long-term winners Tuesday night. And they didn’t even have to move up or down to come out on top."
If that doesn't get you excited you either do not have a pulse or you simply refuse to give Hinkie his due.
You may not like him. You may disagree with his methods. But at the end of the day, it looks like his methods are working. And that, Sixers fans, is a reason to get excited.