Photo by Kate Frese/Flyerdelphia
After multiple decent seasons that never quite lived up to the hype surrounding Brayden Schenn, the young center turned winger put together his best outing in the NHL during the 2015-16 campaign.
With such a great performance, Schenn showed he is turning a corner. However, the time has come for the Philadelphia Flyers to negotiate a new deal with the player.
Rumors are swirling as to what such a deal may encompass. Will it be a long-term deal? How much will Schenn get? Some are estimating that Schenn may get as much as $5.25 million a year when all is said and done.
A look at the Flyers projected salary cap situation next year and the free agents they can afford this summer. pic.twitter.com/ecVrI0f6cY
— Flyers Nerd (@FlyersNerd) May 12, 2016
That seems a lot, right? Doesn’t that seem like almost too much for Schenn? Not so fast. Let’s dive deeper into the numbers.
Schenn’s point-per-game total skyrocketed this past season to 0.71. Before this campaign, the best he had produced was a little over half a point average.
When you compare that type of production with players who had similar stats, the estimation of $5.25 million is probably higher than market value but not by much.
Brayden Schenn vs Nazem Kadri, my $5,250,000 AAV projection for Schenn probably was a little too much pic.twitter.com/AkJuMPL378
— Flyers Nerd (@FlyersNerd) May 13, 2016
The comparison with the Nazem Kadri is a good place to start as Kadri and the Toronto Maple Leafs reached a six-year, $27 million contract. The deal carries a $4.5 million cap hit.
Both have only one 50-point plus season and Kadri has a slight production advantage. Career-wise, Kadri has a better point per game average. This is helped tremendously by his best season a few years ago. In 2012-13, Kadri churned out nearly a point per outing with 44 points in the lockout shortened 48-game season.
However, that was Kadri’s peak and has since fallen off and plateaued to about a half a point per game player. Meanwhile, Schenn’s numbers have been trending up with each passing season with the exception of the 2013-14 campaign when his slightly decreased before resuming their normal ascension.
The numbers show Kadri is trending down, but Schenn’s value is only increasing.
General manager Ron Hextall isn’t above giving a contract based on potential either. Last summer, he handed Sean Couturier a handsome six-year, $26 million extension, a deal just one million shy of what Kadri signed a few weeks ago.
On the other hand, Couturier was given that contract for a completely different reason than Schenn would. Schenn is not going to be filling in for Couturier as a shutdown center anytime soon.
Another fair comparison would be to Artem Anisimov. The former Columbus Blue Jacket and New York Ranger signed a five-year, $22.75 million deal with the Chicago Blackhawks when free agency started last year.
Anisimov’s production is very similar to that of Schenn’s. Both routinely average about a point a game. However, the big Russian has never had a spike in his production like Schenn. Yet, he was given a contract with a $4.5 million cap hit.
There’s that number again. That’s the fair market value for Brayden Schenn. The Saskatoon, Saskatchewan native’s numbers fall right in between Anisimov and Kadri in terms of production and analytics. Both those players make $4.5 million.
So, while the initial estimation of $5 million or so for Schenn was a bit over, it was by no means much of a stretch.
Therefore, when all is said and done, the Flyers and Schenn should come to an agreement to about four years and $18 million. Four or five years keeps him in between the time when Wayne Simmonds’ contract expires and the likes of Claude Giroux and Jake Voracek see their current deals end.
That’s the proper sum and term for Schenn. It gives him security and fits strategically with the team’s future plans.
Dan Heaning is a contributing writer for Flyerdelphia. Follow him on Twitter @Dan_Heaning.
