Patrick Causey, on Twitter @InsdeTheHuddle
We are one quarter of the way through the 2015 season, so now is a good time to reevaluate arguably the biggest decision Chip Kelly made this offseason: trading Nick Foles, a second round pick, and a fourth round pick to the St. Louis Rams for Sam Bradford and a 5th round pick.
At the time, the move was met with skepticism: why trade a younger, cheaper and more productive quarterback, plus additional draft picks, for a guy that has largely been considered a bust?
Over time, however, Philadelphia Eagles fans and the media began focusing on Bradford's skill set: his great arm, quick release and supposed accuracy, and became convinced that the Eagles obtained a franchise caliber quarterback.
Four weeks into the season, the returns have not been pretty. Bradford has been inaccurate, has failed to see open receivers, and to challenge defenses down the field. He also has turned the ball over at an alarming rate, with four interceptions in the first four weeks of the season. In eight halves of football, he has looked competent in two: the second halves against the Atlanta Falcons and Washington Redskins. Otherwise, he has been downright bad.
But Bradford has flashed potential that keeps many waiting with baited breath for him to flip the switch and validate the faith Kelly has placed in him. His ceiling is arguably much higher than Foles; and if Bradford ever reaches that ceiling on a more consistent level, then no one will care about what we gave up to obtain him.
And to be fair to Bradford, he is coming off his second knee surgery in as many years, and that lack of confidence in his knee has impacted his effectiveness throwing the ball. That knee injury also largely kept him off the field until the start of training camp, which robbed Bradford of valuable time to learn the Eagles offense and build chemistry with his receivers.
And of course, his offensive line — which has pass blocked well so far — has not helped matters because it has been an abject disaster in run blocking, which indirectly, but very strongly, impacts the passing game. Finally, the receivers have not helped Bradford much, with estimates ranging between 10 and 14 dropped passes, depending on the site you rely on.
Extenuating circumstances aside, it is fair to question whether the Eagles would redo the Bradford deal if given a second chance. Kelly would never admit it — doing so would be to undermine his own decision making ability and his quarterback. But we can take a look to decide for ourselves.
By The Numbers
First, let's start with the raw numbers. Here is a statistical comparison for the 2015 season so far:
|
QB |
Cmp/Att |
Cmp % |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
YPA |
Drops |
Under Pressure |
QB Rat |
|
N. Foles |
70/111 |
63.1% |
815 |
5 |
1 |
7.34 |
11 |
39.7% |
96.5 |
|
S. Bradford |
88/145 |
60.7% |
948 |
6 |
4 |
6.5 |
12* |
30.5% |
82.2 |
* Websites vary on the number of drops by Eagles receivers, ranging from 10-14. So I averaged the two together.
Pretty much across the board, Foles has better numbers than Bradford. He has a better completion percentage, touchdown to interception ratio, yards per attempt, and quarterback rating, despite being under pressure much more frequently than Bradford. To put the under pressure category into better perspective: Foles has been pressured 8th most in the league, while Bradford ranks 22nd in that category. Foles has done this with a subpar supporting cast on offense: his wide receivers include first round bust Tavon Austin, Kenny Britt and Brian Quick.
Meanwhile, Bradford's 32.3 QBR is 30th among 33 qualified quarterbacks, behind quarterbacks like Ryan Mallett, Jameis Winston, Jay Cutler and Kirk Cousins.
Now here are the career numbers:
|
QB |
Cmp/Att |
Cmp % |
Yards |
TD |
INT |
YPA |
INT% |
W-L Record |
QB Rat |
|
N. Foles |
620/1004 |
61.8% |
7,568 |
51 |
18 |
7.5 |
1.8 |
17-11 |
94.4 |
|
S. Bradford |
1120/1905 |
58.8% |
948 |
65 |
42 |
6.3 |
2.2 |
19-33-1 |
79.5
|
Bradford's interception percentage has jumped up to 2.8% this year, up from his career 2.2% average. Otherwise, his season numbers largely match his career numbers. At some point, we might have to consider that this is what Bradford is despite his impressive arm.
Sometimes it is easy to forget just how impressive Foles' overall body of work is. His 51 to 18 touchdown to interception ratio is historically good. And while that is being propped up by his 27 and 2 season, his interception rate this year (0.9%) is on par with this interception rate in 2013 (0.6%). At some point, you are what your numbers say you are. And while Foles will never be a top five quarterback, it's fair to say that he has consistently put up good numbers despite his perceived limitations.
The Game Tape
Foles' detractors are quick to point to some of his perceived weaknesses: he isn't fleet footed, he is prone to backpedaling away from nonexistent pressure, and there isn't one particular thing about his game that you can call an elite skill set.
For the Rams, we have seen some of these issues pop up, like this sack he took against the Pittsburgh Steelers which could have been avoided had he simply thrown the ball away:
And while he only has one interception on the year, that one interception was a bad throw with three minutes left in the game when the Rams down 9-6 to the Steelers:
Foles floats this deep pass which ends up getting intercepted. While the Rams got the ball back with a little over a minute left, this effectively ended the game.
But Foles has also made some fantastic throws this year, which also have to be taken into consideration when evaluating his overall game. On this touchdown throw against the Arizona Cardinals, Foles is under pressure but has the wherewithal to manipulate coverage with a pump fake and delivers a strike in the perfect location for the touchdown.
Or this throw against the Seattle Seahawks on the game winning drive in overtime:
Foles drops this ball perfectly between All World cornerback Richard Sherman and safety Earl Thomas. He put the ball only where his receiver can catch it despite Sherman blanketing the receiver in coverage. Here is another angle:
Here is another perfectly thrown deep ball for a touchdown to Tavon Austin:
A lot has been made of Foles backpedaling in the face of pressure. That was a warranted criticism in 2014, when the injuries to his offensive line was clearly affecting his play — much like it has for Bradford this year.
But with the Rams, Foles has shown some improvement in this regard. Against the Cardinals, we see Foles avoid pressure in the pocket with good footwork, keeping his eyes down field, delivering a strike to Austin for 40-yards.
Now might be the time to reiterate what I am and what I am not saying.
I am NOT saying that Foles is a top five, or even top 10 NFL quarterback. Nor am I saying that Bradford has not had good moments this year. Bradford's game last week against the Redskins was arguably his best of the season, and he finally started taking shots down the field: he threw eight passes of 20 yards or more (completing 4-8 for 176 yards and two touchdowns) compared to just five such throws in the other three games.
But given an adequate offensive line, Foles has shown that he can be a top 10-15 guy with top 7 upside throughout his career. Which makes the decision to trade him away all the more puzzling, 2014 struggles notwithstanding.
The Trade
But even if you prefer Bradford because of his perceived higher ceiling, we have to consider the full equation of what the Eagles gave up to acquire him.
Because the Eagles did not do a straight swap of Bradford for Foles. The Eagles traded a second round and fourth round pick in the 2016 NFL Draft in exchange for a fifth round pick. The Eagles also took on Bradford's contract, which accounts for $12.95 million this season, compared to the $750,000 that Bradford was owed. That is a difference of $12.2 million that could have been spent on improving the roster.
This is the best way that I can illustrate the opportunity cost of acquiring Bradford. Which would you rather have?
Nick Foles, 2nd round pick, 4th round pick, Jeremy Maclin ($11 million)*, and $750,000 in salary
OR
Sam Bradford and a 5th round pick.
*I am assuming the Eagles would have spent that extra salary cap by resigning Jeremy Maclin at the contract value for which he signed with the Kansas City Chiefs.
At least to this point, I think the answer is pretty obvious: the Eagles would be better situated with Foles, Maclin and the two higher draft picks.
But it's still early. Bradford could turn into the franchise caliber quarterback many believe he has the potential to be, especially as he becomes more confident in his knee and the Eagles offense. He showed signs last week, and if he continues to take shots down the field, he could turn this thing around just yet.
But after four weeks, it seems that the Eagles got the short end of the Bradford for Foles swap.
