The law of averages catches up to people. Chase Headley is mostly a .260 hitter who hits somewhere between four and 11 home runs each season. Jacoby Ellsbury is a contact hitter with a high on base percentage, and has hit no more than nine home runs except for one season. Ellsbury exploded for 32 in 2011 and Headley 31 in 2012. After each of those seasons were up, the players went right back to their normal selves. In 2014, we are reminded what the "normal" Domonic Brown is. That Domonic Brown is not good enough.
In the case of Domonic Brown, the anomaly occurred just like Ellsbury and Headley, thanks to two good months. In May and June 0f 2013, Brown exploded for 12 and eight home runs, respectively.
Here are Brown's offensive contributions, minus his two solid months of 2013:
- 2013: 279 at bats outside May and June: .258 average, nine home runs, 37 RBI
- 2014: 280 at bats into the season: .221 average, five home runs, 38 RBI
The numbers are similar enough that it is very reasonable to believe that what we are seeing is Domonic Brown.
There is plenty of evidence to suggest that the Phillies were well-aware of this. During the offseason there were trade discussions involving Brown. In fact, the Phillies were "actively shopping" Brown, according to one report. Today, Brown has little trade value, except perhaps an exchange for a similar player that has underperformed in relation to the hype that existed. Besides trade value, Brown has little value to the major league club.
The Phillies likely will undergo at least a partial sale this trade deadline. When they make that leap, the Phillies should not use that as a reason to continue to play Brown. Brown will not figure out how to get it together while instagraming pictures of himself that seem to imply that he's living the good life and while his bench coach Larry Bowa says he should not be coming to the ballpark happy.
Meanwhile, the Phillies signed Grady Sizemore. Sizemore could be called up when the Phillies finally decide to send Brown to AAA and at least man the position better than Brown has. Down the line, Maikel Franco will be ready to take over third base, at which time Cody Asche can head to left field. Maybe a solid outfield prospect will emerge from the trades the Phillies could make.
Defensively, we have all seen Brown's adventures. Brown has a defensive WAR of -1.0 and while his fielding percentage is only ninth-worst, we have seen lackadasical play after lackadasical play. Plays in which Brown does not touch the ball, he cannot be charged an error. Case in point: the June 25 play off the bat of Marcell Ozuna and the Marlins which arguably cost the Phillies the game. The scoring decision was a double, but it was a ball Brown should have had.
All I know is that right now Brown has the fourth-worst OPS in the league, and is tied for a league-worst -1.4 WAR, and has trouble fielding. For a team struggling to remain respectable, Brown cannot stay on this team another day. Brown is playing like the worst player in baseball. The fact that Brown was rated a top prospect in 2009 is irrelevant anymore. I've seen enough.
