By Patrick Del Gaone, Sports Talk Philly staff writer 
The Atlanta Falcons are currently favored by 1.5 points against the Philadelphia Eagles for Sunday’s NFC showdown at Lincoln Financial Field. As of Saturday, a whopping 88 percent of wagers have been made on the Falcons, according to VegasInsider.
Friday’s injury reports included a slew of key players who have either been ruled out, or will be game-time decisions on Sunday morning. Given what we know to this point, let’s take a look into how these NFC contenders stack up.
Falcons Offense vs. Eagles Defense
Atlanta’s high-octane attack is primarily fueled by the connection between precision-based quarterback Matt Ryan and physically-imposing wideout Julio Jones. Ryan's having undoubtedly the most brilliant season of his career, and is a strong MVP contender through nine weeks. The Boston College product is averaging 9.52 yards per attempt, for a total of 2,980 passing yards and 23 touchdowns compared to merely four interceptions. At 6’3”, 220 lbs., Jones is matchup nightmare for NFL defensive backs. The league’s top receiver averages 19 yards per catch for 970 yards and five scores.
At home, Jim Schwartz’s defense has been an immovable force. Regardless of the venue, no team has been able to shutdown Atlanta’s offense this season. The Falcons average 33.9 points per game (1st in NFL), while Philly has only allowed 23 total points in three games at Lincoln Financial Field.
On Sunday, something will have to give.
Offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan runs an offense predicated on spreading the defense out and creating favorable matchups for his skilled-position assets. Shanahan has done a tremendous job with Ryan and the offense this year, so much so that he’ll be in line for a head coaching job at year’s end.
Defending against Shanahan’s offense is so strenuous because it’s imperative to focus primarily on Jones, but Atlanta has an assortment of weapons, such as Mohamed Sanu, Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman, all of whom possess the requisite skill to burn even the sturdiest of defenses. Moreover, Shanahan’s clever scheme allows their second and third options to slip through the cracks, while Ryan has an uncanny ability to fluidly get through his progressions and diagnose coverages.
The former Boston College Eagle is carving up opposing defenses from Shanahan’s three tight end set, completing a proficient 24-31 attempts with 19 first downs and five touchdowns. Fortunately for Philadelphia, starting tight end Jacob Tamme and backup halfback Tevin Coleman have been ruled out of Sunday’s bout. Meanwhile, the Eagles will receive a major boost with the return of mammoth defensive tackle Bennie Logan, allowing Schwartz to rotate four interior lineman.
Philadelphia cornerback Leodis McKelvin is listed as questionable after tweaking his nagging hamstring injury in Thursday’s practice. The former first-round pick isn’t expected to be much of a factor in this game, therefore, the primary burden falls on Jalen Mills and Nolan Carroll to slow Atlanta’s talented receiving corps.
Eagles Offense vs. Falcons Defense
The 6-3 Falcons lead the NFC South largely in spite of their inferior defense. Head coach Dan Quinn has a sterling reputation for his ability to build a great defense, mostly due to his successful stint as defensive coordinator in Seattle. In his second year with Atlanta, his defense has been gutted for 381 yards per game (26th in NFL) and nearly 29 points per game (28th in NFL).
The root of the problem is preventing short and mid-level completions in Quinn’s zone coverage. The unit allows 290 yards per game through the air (31st in NFL). It’s not a matter of generating pressure on the quarterback (22 sacks, 6th in NFL), but instead the inability to recognize route combinations. Additionally, Atlanta has a tendency to scramble defensively while in zone coverage.
The Eagles’ receiving corps will be just what the doctor ordered for Quinn’s defense. Without a single player who needs special attention, the Falcons shouldn’t have trouble holding Philly’s struggling passing attack under 270 yards on Sunday, particularly considering Carson Wentz’s wavering confidence in recent weeks.
Atlanta runs a base ‘Cover 3’ in the secondary with a single high safety and two cornerbacks guarding deep thirds, while the linebackers and nickel cornerback cover the underneath routes. Aside from Bryce Treggs’ 58-yard reception against New York, the Eagles have almost exclusively had success with short passes lately. Look for Philly to flood the underneath coverage with crossing patterns and hitch routes early on, in an attempt to draw the deep defenders closer to the line of scrimmage. If successful, Wentz is likely to find Nelson Agholor or Jordan Matthews on a deep bomb in the latter stages of the match.
Right tackle Halapoulivaati Vaitai will have his hands full with rotating defensive end Vic Beasley. The veteran has blazing speed off the edge, compounded by his freedom to line up as wide as he feels necessary. Against San Diego, Beasley lined up outside of the slot receiver, then built up such upfield speed that a simple shoulder shimmy was enough to slip past the right tackle on his way to a strip-sack. The play happened so quickly that Phillip Rivers was still on his first progression when he realized the former Clemson Tiger was on his doorstep.
According to Doug Pederson’s mid-week presser, he plans to methodically churn out yardage on the ground in hopes of controlling the clock, a strategy which has proven effective for the Eagles at “The Linc”. This plan of attack is risky, given that Quinn’s defense gives up just 91 rushing yards per game (7th in NFL), but the upside of keeping Atlanta’s prolific offense on the sideline could pay great dividends. The Falcons announced on Friday that top cornerback Desmond Trufant will miss Sunday’s contest, which could affect the Eagles’ “ground and pound” game plan.
Matchup to Watch: Eagles DB’s vs. Falcons WR’s
Player of the Game: Matt Ryan
Prediction: Falcons win 31-16
