Eagles Free Agent Evaluation: Brandon Graham

By Paul Bowman, Sports Talk Philly Editor

Leading up to the start of free agency, Sports Talk Philly and Eagledelphia will be taking a look at the players on the Eagles roster who are scheduled to become free agents this offseason and how the team should look to handle each.

In this edition, we will be covering defensive end Brandon Graham.

The first-round pick of the Eagles in the 2010 draft, BG has played all nine seasons of his career for Philadelphia. While many would have said he was a bust just a few seasons ago, Graham played the 2016 and 2017 seasons to a high caliber and had a strip sack in Super Bowl LII that ended up putting the Eagles up by eight points with just over a minute left in the game.

That said, Graham spent his first six seasons in the league being an average to above average player. He began as a defensive end, switched to outside linebacker under Chip Kelly, and then switched back to defensive end with the return to a 4-3 defense. Perhaps the switches negatively impacted him, but it is important to keep in mind the lack of major production for six seasons.

In 2016, Graham finally made the leap to the level of play that made the Eagles select him in the first round. He was selected to the Pro Football Focus All-Pro team and was a second team AP All-Pro. Graham proved that the 2016 season wasn’t just a one off by leading the Super Bowl Champions, and arguably the best defensive line in the game, with 9.5 sacks.

This season, Graham took a bit of a step back. His production was just not on par with the prior two seasons. In fact, most of his stats were among the worst he has posted since 2014. Graham started off the season with a high-ankle injury, and it seemed that he really wasn’t an impact player until the second half of the season. Michael Bennett and Derek Barnett were a far better duo at the beginning of the season as Graham didn’t seem to break out until week 10. That’s not to say he hasn’t been productive at all this season, but he hasn’t played up to the level that made him a big name over the past two seasons. While the injury is likely a major reason for that lack of production, Graham is 30 years old and that makes injuries and successfully returning from them a larger concern.

In 2019, the Eagles will have Derek Barnett and Michael Bennett to start on the edge. Josh Sweat, Joe Ostman and Daeshon Hall are the three who will fight for roster spots and ensure some backup for the team. Additionally, the draft is exceptionally deep at defensive line this year and it would be extremely surprising if the Eagles did not pick at least one such player with one of their three picks in the first two rounds (though they could be a DT instead of a DE).

The Eagles have the depth and starters they need, but they could, depending on the draft, still be missing that clear-cut number three guy who is as talented as the starters for rotational and injury purposes.

A bit of a wild card here is Chris Long, who is under contract in 2019, but could choose to retire. If he returns, the Eagles have a clear top three options at DE and they can afford to go with one additional free agent or draft pick while continuing to develop young guys like Sweat.

Also of concern is an Eagles cap space issue. The Eagles are more than $12 million over the projected cap. Of even more concern is that, unless the Eagles decide to move on or sign a new deal with Tim Jernigan, the Eagles have an astounding near $85 million due to defensive lineman in 2019. That’s nearly 44% of the projected cap space. With Sportrac projecting Graham will sign a 5 year, $79,259,620 deal, the Eagles will not be able to afford to add an average yearly salary near $16 million on top of those commitments.

Additionally, that deal would keep Graham under contract until he is 35. A recent study by the NFLPA found that the longest player careers tend to be among those who have made at least one Pro Bowl appearance, something Graham has not done. They found that the average length of the careers of Pro Bowlers is 11.7 years. The final year of that contract would be Graham’s 14th year in the league. We saw how being loyal to a previously great player can negatively impact a team this season. The Eagles re-signed Darren Sproles for his 14th season and Jason Peters for his 15th in 2018 and both missed significant time.

While Graham has only had one major injury in his career so far, age is still a concern. Plus, at a $15.8 million annual salary, Graham should easily net the Eagles a third-round compensatory pick (should it not be cancelled out by a free-agent signing).

Graham’s contract could be limited by the deepest defensive line draft in years and players like DeMarcus Lawrence, Jadeveon Clowney, Ezekiel Ansah, Trey Flowers, Dee Ford and Frank Clark set to also hit free agency. A team looking to invest heavily in pass rushers would likely look toward the draft for cheaper options or to players like Ford, Clark and Lawrence for younger talent that could produce better toward the tail end of a contract. This could lead Graham to sign a one-year deal in the hopes of getting a large pay day next offseason when there is not expected to be so many top talents available at the position.

This is not a decision that can be made with the heart. While Graham may be a tough player to move on from, the Eagles simply cannot take that sort of cap hit at this point and, from prior reports, Graham does not seem interested in taking an extremely discounted deal. That is understandable for someone in his situation. While there is a chance Graham decides to come back on a one-year deal to maximize his big contract, that scenario seems a bit unlikely at the moment. Assuming that a short-term deal is not met and considering the fact that he could net the Eagles one of best compensatory picks available, the decision on Graham is a pretty clear-cut one.