The weather forecast for Tuesday, March 10th in Philadelphia, PA calls for a 60% chance of rain. Incidentally, at 4:00 pm that day the NFL free agent market opens. The perfect weather, on the perfect day, to blow a disgusting amount of money on—hopefully—obscenely talented young men that fit Chip’s system, well, perfectly.
Over the last week, the Eagles front office has worked tirelessly to free up money in every imaginable way possible: unceremonious exits in Cole/Herremans, predictable cuts like Cary Williams, & an unfathomable swap in McCoy-for-Alonso. All of these moves orchestrated with—presumably—a plan in place: an idea that there are soon-to-be-available players out there who can take your franchise farther than the guys currently on the roster. It’s no secret that there are glaring holes on this Eagles roster. We all know where the Eagles are thin: edge rusher, cornerback, safety, OL, wide receiver, and—all of a sudden—running back. But don’t worry…that’s all. (If you ignore the subpar 2014 quarterback play: which is another blog entry to soon be written.)
Fortunately, the organization now has the funds to address at least some of those areas. Over the last 7 weeks, notable impending free agents from 28 NFL franchises have been addressed here. Now, with just 48 hours until the start of free agency, time to discuss the last division remaining: the AFC West.
Denver Broncos
Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin, Julius Thomas, Terrance Knighton
Moore is a talented 5 years NFL vet out of UCLA with a couple ties to Philly. First, he is a former teammate of Mychal Kendricks: having both played for the Bruins from 2008-2010. Second, Scott Undlin—who coached Moore in Denver for three years—was just hired by Kelly to coach DBs in Philly. Moore isn’t the same caliber free agent safety as, for example, Devin McCourty. He does, however, have a nose for the football: which is more than can be said for Nate Allen. Last year Moore did tally four interceptions & five passes defensed while also forcing two fumbles. Despite this, ProFootball Focus ranked Moore 18 spots behind Nate Allen last year & the 46th overall safety in the NFL. Rumors—confirmed by Jeff McClane on Twitter—have the Eagles hot after Orlando Franklin. This would certainly make sense given the Herremans’ departure and both Evan Mathis’ age & contract desires. Last year, Franklin started all 16 games at left guard in Manning’s high powered offense. ProFootball Focus rated Franklin as the 13th best guard in the game with an overall +12.0 rating. In 2013, Franklin started at right tackle and graded out as the 17th best tackle in the game. This is exactly the kind of versatility & athletic ability that Chip Kelly covets. He was drafted in 2011 out of the University of Miami and is due for the kind of pay day the Eagles can provide with their excessive cap space. Julius Thomas—if you follow Jason Cole on Twitter—is likely heading to Jacksonville to cash in on many millions of dollars. Even still, he’s fun to consider. Thomas burst onto the scene in 2013 in the NFL opener against the Baltimore Ravens. That season he caught 65 balls for 788 yards & 12 touchdowns. Last year, he followed it up with another 12 scores but only caught 43 balls for 489 yards. Imagine Thomas & Ertz on the field together…just imagine. Terrance Knighton, in 2013, was the ninth best DT in the NFL—according to PFF—despite playing the second fewest snaps of any tackle rated in the top 10. He graded out +9.4 as a pass rusher providing four sacks, five QB hits, and 25 QB hurries to Denver’s defensive unit. In 2014, he was just average as a pass rusher but graded out at +11.7 against the run. Including Denver’s playoff runs, Knighton has played just 1285 total snaps the last two seasons: averaging 35 snaps per game. This sounds like a lot but is low for top-15 players rated this highly by PFF. Though someone to consider, the Eagles are probably content with their current defensive line rotation & have needs elsewhere to prioritize.
Kansas City Chiefs
Ron Parker
News broke last night that Jeremy Maclin is likely heading to rejoin Andy Reid in Kansas City. It’s only fair we try and find one of his guys to steal away from Arrowhead. Unfortunately, there isn’t much available in Kansas City as far as free agents go. The obvious name—Justin Houston—was franchise tagged last week. It’ll take two first-round draft picks & a ton of money to lure him away. If the Eagles weren’t allegedly attempting to acquire Marcus Mariota in this year’s draft, then this could be a viable option. As it stands now, it isn’t. The only meat left on the BBQ is Ron Parker: a soon-to-be 28 year old safety out of Newberry College. Last season, Parker started 15 games and logged 94 combined tackles. He forced a fumble & picked of one ball while defending 12 passes. He can definitely play but would be a consolation prize in the McCourty Derby.
Oakland Raiders
Tyvon Branch, Pat Sims, CJ Wilson, Denarius Moore, Vincent Brown
Branch has played a combined five games in the last two seasons. In 2013, his season was cut short with a broken leg. This past season, he never made it out of September: fracturing his foot in the third game of the season. Couple those facts with this one: he will be entering his 8th NFL season in 2015. There is talk that he is currently a highly sought after safety in a class headlined by Devin McCourty & lacking in definitive playmakers thereafter. Branch, because of his injury history, will not receive a top-flight offer but will likely get overpaid because of the lack of other options on the market. The Eagles are going to do their fair share of spending but likely not on situations like that. Two seasons ago, Pat Sims was the 18th best DT in the NFL: with an overall +8.1 grade according to PFF. Last season, he graded out at -3.4. He is a 30 year old OLB & is going in the wrong direction. The Eagles have younger, more capable interior defensive lineman. They don’t need Sims. What the Eagles do need—all of a sudden—is a wide receiver. Anyone who plays fantasy football has probably put a hole through a wall because of Moore & Brown. They were both mid round picks in the 2011 NFL draft. Neither of them has broken 750 receiving yards in a season. Neither has the size that Kelly wants out of his WRs. Neither is a viable option.
San Diego Chargers
Eddie Royal, Ryan Mathews, Marcus Gilchrist
So it turns out the Eagles are in need of some viable offensive weapons. LeSean McCoy has been exiled to the arctic abyss that is Buffalo. Jeremy Maclin is returning home to Missouri to play for Andy Reid’s Chiefs. The Eagles are, purportedly, set to sign Frank Gore but have not yet been linked to any WRs on the free agent market. They could go into the draft thinking they will grab the next McCoy or Maclin but if they are trying to acquire Mariota they won’t have the picks to do so. Royal—diminutive at best, measuring 5’10” & 185 lbs—could come in and produce in an offense that works by creating space. Last season he caught 62 balls for 778 yards and seven touchdowns. He could be—for Kelly—what Welker was & Amendola is for Belichik. He graded out, per PFF, just above another former Eagle in DeSean Jackson. He is 28 years old & won’t cost much. If Jordan Matthews can make the transition to the outside, Royal could take in place in the slot. With the Frank Gore news, Ryan Mathews likely isn’t headed to the Delaware Valley. Probably for the best as he typically misses games with injury and is entering his sixth NFL season: not a great combination. Marcus Gilchrist, if you rely on PFF, has no place on this list as a viable free agent safety acquisition for the Eagles. Last season he graded out as the 72 best safety in the NFL: behind Quinten Demps, believe it or not. This is a precipitous drop from his 20th overall grade in 2013. Why the drop? Not sure because his numbers are similar from year to year. In 2013, Gilchrist started 16 games & had 77 combined tackles, 5 passes defensed, 2 interceptions and one forced fumble. In 2014, 16 games for 76 tackles, 5 passes defensed, one pick & two forced fumbles. These numbers aren’t so dissimilar to explain the advanced metric drop-off. The simple truth is that the Eagles need to get better at safety than Nate Allen. At worst, Gilchrist ought to be able to accomplish that.
Buckle up…Tuesday (or at least Twitter beforehand) will provide much anticipated clarity as to the direction of this franchise going forward.
