Evaluating The Process

Patrick Causey, on Twitter @InsdeTheHuddle

"What we look at is, how do we add to what we're doing in a way that gets us closer to our goal? We don't think that it will necessarily be linear — that every year you will add five wins and after 10 years you will get to 50. That's not the way we think about the world. We think that it comes at fits and starts, and you have to be prepared to put yourself in a position that you might be able to make big leaps."

"We're focused on how to put the building blocks in place that have a chance to compete in May…We are still — as much as I've talked about how we make decisions and as much as I've talked about our organizational goals and our player development — it is a players-driven league, still. When we have a set of players that can carry us deep, that's the only way, that's the only way to get where we're going."

 – Sam Hinkie

There is so much confusion, angst and anger towards the Philadelphia 76ers rebuilding efforts, or "The Process" as it's been dubbed by the internet. 

There isn't a week that goes by where I don't see at least one article or tweet questioning why The Process is taking so long, whether the Sixers are running a ponzi scheme, and what the end game is for the Sixers organization. There seems to be utter confusion by some as to what exactly is going on here.

To an extent, I understand it. This is something new and different and we are genetically predisposed to hating new and different things. That is until they work, at least.

But if we take a step back and analyze this from 30,000 feet, The Process is actually quite simple.

 

The Sixers have recognized, as the Hinkie quote above illustrates, that they cannot win without a franchise caliber superstar, a viable all-star/top 25 sidekick, and a third wheel that is a borderline All-Star. Look over the past NBA champions, and you will see rosters filled with this same breakdown: from Jordan, Pippen and Rodman (and Grant before that), to Duncan, Parker and Ginoboli, to Magic, Kareem and Worthy, to Bird, McHale, and Parrish.

It is the foundational blueprint that has withstood the test of time, but that is also one of the most difficult things to obtain in all of sports (up their with a franchise caliber quarterback, as all Eagles fans can appreciate).

There are two ways in which an NBA franchise can acquire this trio of NBA gold: by luck or design.

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the perfect example of a team lucking their way into a potential dynasty in the making. They flipped Kevin Love, who was going to walk in free agency, for Andrew Wiggins. They then sucked at the most opportune time, winning the lottery when another top flight talent, Karl Anthony Towns, just happened to be in the draft. 

It was easy, it was quick, and it was the old school way of doing things. 

But not every franchise is in the fortunate position of having an All-Star caliber trading chip. Nor is every franchise fortunate enough to be near the top of the draft when a potential superstar enters the draft (look no further than the Sixers unfortunate experience having to draft Evan Turner second overall).

And when Sam Hinkie took over the Sixers in 2013, he sure as heck wasn't taking over a franchise presented with either of those situations. Their roster was bereft of superstar quality talent like Kevin Love (and no, simply because Jrue Holiday made an All-Star team does not make him anywhere remotely close to a superstar).

And the 2013 Draft was at the time, and still is, considered by many to be one of the weakest drafts in recent NBA history (and no, Nerlens Noel is not a superstar either, but he could be a good third or fourth option on a championship caliber team).

So they did what a smart business would do, they traded an over inflated asset (Holiday) for a potential 2014 first round pick (in a draft class that everyone knew was loaded), and they took a high upside player in Noel, despite the fact that he would miss his entire rookie season recovering from a knee surgery.

And they stunk. Boy did they stink. But they did so on purpose in an effort to gain another shot at landing a top flight player.

In a draft class as loaded as the 2014 Draft, there stood a high probability that the Sixers could land that superstar talent. Indeed, if Joel Embiid did not break his navicular bone weeks before the Draft, he likely would have been taken first overall by the Cleveland Cavaliers, and we likely would be talking about a foursome that is Andrew Wiggins, Nerlens Noel, Michael Carter-Williams (more on him in a moment) and whatever player the Sixers drafted with New Orleans pick in the Holiday trade. If that were the case, I would not at all be surprised if the Sixers would have been more aggressive in adding more pieces to the puzzle, content to building around Wiggins as their franchise centerpiece.

But the Sixers did not have lady luck on their side in 2014, either. Instead of Andrew Wiggins, the Sixers ended up with Embiid, who has yet to play a single minute for the team. And after the dumpster fire organization that is the Sacramento Kings (more on them as well, in a moment) surprised everyone by taking Nik Stauskas, the Sixers were left with taking a gamble on Dario Saric, despite fully understanding that he would not play for them for at least two, and possibly three, years.

So they were bad again in 2014. But this time, lady luck was on their side during the 2015 draft. They landed the third pick in the draft and were (at least to me, surprisingly) able to draft big man Jahlil Okafor, who has shades of Tim Duncan to his offensive game, even if he will never become close to replicating Duncan's defensive talents. 

But here's the thing: the Sixers are going to be bad again.

Why?

The answer is quite simple. Because they still haven't found that transcendent two-way foundational player upon which the rest of the franchise can be built. Joel Embiid was supposed to be that guy, but a broken foot has robbed him of the opportunity to reach that potential, possibly for good.

And as high as I am on Okafor, he will never be a two-way star, not unless he improves dramatically on the defensive side of the ball. Instead, Okafor projects more as a high end side-kick than the lead role on a Broadway play. 

The Sixers know Noel will never be the guy, just like they likely know Okafor has a ceiling thanks to his defensive shortcomings. But they also knew the team would naturally improve with the combination of Noel and Okafor, which would reduce the chances that they could land the number one pick in the draft. 

So they set about protecting themselves against that potential improvement by increasing their odds of landing one or more high lottery draft picks next year. 

They fleeced the Kings in a trade, obtaining Nik Stauskas, a future 1st, and the rights to swap first round picks in 2017 and 18 for a box of chocolates and two Europeans we never heard of. (Okay to be fair, the chocolates weren't included). 

They traded MCW — a middle of the pack point guard in a league filled with quality point guards — for a potential high round lottery pick from the Lakers (who, having not won a single game yet this year, looks to be just as bad as everyone thought).

And they obtained future first round picks from the Thunder and the Heat.

Each one of those picks, in addition to their own, represents another opportunity to land a transcendent level talent (Ben Simmons anyone?). And if the Sixers swing and miss again this offseason? Well, don't be surprised if we are back here again next year looking ahead to the 2017 NBA draft before the season even starts.

Because as promised, this approach — this "Process" — has not, and will not, been linear. It has not been clean. And it has not happened as quickly as the old school media heads and players, who raise their hands in the air shouting about the integrity of the game, would prefer. 

But it is the simple truth that Sam Hinkie and company have made abundantly clear from day one: we will be bad, historically bad, until we land that top flight player. They are committed to that plan until it works, and have maximized their opportunities for it to happen. 

Now we just have to wait, and hope, that it all pans out. 

Go to top button