After a 2012 season marked by injuries and disappointing pitching, this free agency period is the most important for Ruben Amaro Jr. since he took over as general manager in 2009. With the window of opportunity to win another World Series closing rapidly, Amaro must certainly be ready to spend on some top notch players.
Back in July, David Murphy of the Daily News attempted to project the 2013 Phillies payroll, in which he had about $146.12 million going to 19 players.
The roster would look like this:
- Empty (3B/CF/LF)
- Chase Utley 2B – $15.0 million ($12.1 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Empty (3B/CF/LF)
- Ryan Howard 1B – $20.0 million ($25.0 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Empty (3B/CF/LF)
- Carlos Ruiz C – $5.0 million ($3.375 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Jimmy Rollins SS – $11.0 million ($9.5 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Domonic Brown RF – $0.480 million
- Nate Schierholtz LF/RF/LHB – $2.75 million
- Laynce Nix LF/1B/LHB – $1.35 million ($1.25 million against luxury tax threshold)
- John Mayberry Jr. LF/CF/RHB – $0.515 million
- Utility man – $0.600 million
- Backup Catcher – $0.800 million
- Cole Hamels LHP – $24.0 million
- Cliff Lee LHP – $25.0 million ($24.0 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Roy Halladay RHP – $20.0 million
- Vance Worley RHP – $0.515 million
- Kyle Kendrick RHP – $4.5 million ($3.75 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Jonathan Papelbon – $13.0 million ($12.5 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Antonio Bastardo – $1.5 million
- Josh Lindblom – $0.515 million
- Jake Diekman – $0.495 million
- Empty
- Empty
- Empty
(Note: Schierholtz and Bastardo are arbitration eligible players, and those numbers are estimates of the contract they would receive.)
This leaves eight roster spots to be filled, and with the luxury tax threshold at $178 million, the Phillies have around $31.88 million to spend. This free agent group is not short on talent, and their agents certainly aren't short on absurd contract numbers. Pitcher Anibal Sanchez, who posted a 9-13 record and a modest 3.86 ERA, is seeking a six year deal worth ninety million. Philadelphia is not in need of starting pitching help, but the front office will have to spend judiciously in a market where players are being grossly overvalued.
Backup Catcher:
Erik Kratz has the backup job on lock, and he certainly deserves it. Filling in for an injured Carlos Ruiz, Kratz hit 9 HR and 26 RBIs, and quickly established himself as a fan favorite.
Utility Man
It was assumed that Freddy Galvis was going to take over the utility job, but it looks like that will belong to Kevin Frandsen. Frandsen, who filled in for the injured Placido Polanco, signed a deal with a base salary of $850,000, with incentives bringing it as high a $1.2 million. In 55 games he hit .338, and has vast experience at second base, and 22 starts at shortstop. Expect him to be in the lineup frequently in 2013. The Phillies are better off keeping Galvis in the minors this season, and then bringing him back for September call-ups, or in case of an injury.
Third Baseman
Third base seems to be one of the few positions very slim in talent. Kevin Youkilis seems to be the prize of the group, and Jon Heyman took to Twitter yesterday to say he believes the 34 year old can land with the Phillies. Slow your roll there, Jon. Youk's batting average has dropped every year since 2010, and I struggle to see an overpriced 34 year old with chronic back issues and deterriorating offensive skills play every day. The solution? Sign Eric Chavez to a one year deal, just north of $2 million, and have him share time with Frandsen. Before you stop reading, there is a method to my madness. Granted, 2012 was Chavez' first healthy season since 2006, but would still be a better option than Youkilis. Not only was his OBP a notch higher than that of his counterpart, but Chavez also hit .281 last year. Chavez is a career .274 hitter against RHP, while just .244 against LHP. Allowing Chavez to start against righties will not only play to his strengths, but allow him to rest while Frandsen plays against lefties (.267 career average vs. LHP). Platooning Frandsen and Chavez at first will not only bring about more offensive stability than Youkilis, but would be much cheaper as well.
Center Field
B.J. Upton seems to be the hot name here, and for good reason. The 28 year old outfielder hit a career high 28 HR to go with 78 RBIs, and his incredible speed helped him snag 31 SB. Yet, there are some serious concerns with his offensive game. Upton has not hit above .250 since 2008, and his OBP was a dismal .298. He also struck out 169 times last year, and on a team that features Ryan Howard in the heart of the order, the Phillies may not be able to afford another player who consistently strikes out. Upton was certainly hung out to dry in a pretty poor Tampa Bay Rays offense, as pitchers really attacked him. However, the Phillies offense desperately needs a power surge, and the reward outweighs the risk. A 3 year, $33 million deal should be able to get the job done, but if not, there are several other suitable options. Despite being suspended 50 games for Perfomance Enhancing Drugs, Melky Cabrera is a career .284 hitter who rarely strikes out. His worth may have taken a dive after the steroids debacle, and that could certainly be the steal of the offseason. Angel Pagan is another servicable options that could be had cheap, and frequently gets on base.
Left/Right Field
Like third base, the pickings at left and right field are relatively weak. The left field group is led by All-Star Josh Hamilton, who the Phillies need to stay far away from. The 31 year old has seen his numbers decrease every year since his remarkable 2010 season, but is prepared to cash in a massive free agent contract in a bad field. It was reported that Hamilton was looking for a seven year deal in the ballpark of $175 million, or $25 million a season. A contract like that is a death trap for any team, especially for a team like the Phillies who are going to be tapped for cash. It's feasible that Darin Ruf could take over the Left Field job full time, but having Domonic Brown and Ruf as the two corner Outfielders is a risky move, but one that needs to be done. The Phillies have stashed Brown in Lehigh Valley for as long as they can, but now it's time to see if he can actually play a full season in the MLB. Brown is certainly a talented player, but for a player you wouldn't trade for Roy Halladay, to stick him behind Nick Swisher or Cody Ross would be a waste. In Ruf's case, there's nothing for him to "re-tool" in the minors. He had an outstanding September with the Phillies, hitting 3 HRs and 10 RBIs in just 12 games. These are two situations where Amaro needs to put the checkbook away, and let these two play, for good or for bad. Like Brown, Ruf should be making $480,000 in 2013, and that extra money will go to bringing some much needed bullpen help.
Bullpen
The Phillies bullpen which was 8th in the majors in 2011, fell to 21st last year after posting a 3.94 ERA. They have quite a few holes to fill, and certainly will have enough money to spend to fill them. The Phillies worst inning ERA wise came in the 8th, where they had an average ERA of 4.67. To solve their setup man woes, enter LHP Mike Adams, most recently with the Texas Rangers. Philadelphia has had interest in trading for Adams the past few years, and it's likely they focus their sights in on him. In 52.1 IP last year, Adams had an ERA of 3.21, but a career ERA if 2.28. The 34 year old pitcher would allow for a smooth eighth inning, and make Jonathan Papelbon's job that much easier. After making $4.4 million last season, it would be worth the Phillies while if they gave him a three year deal with a base salary of $6 million. For middle inning help, RHP Koji Uehara is a guy the Phillies should be drooling over. Last season, he posted a 1.75 ERA and an incredible .639 WHIP in 36 innings pitched. Left handed batters hit a whopping .273 off of Phillies right handed pitching last year, and Uehara held batters to hitting just .188. After making $4 million last season, a two year, $10 million deal would be fair for both sides. With one more bullpen spot to be filled, expect the Phillies to take a flyer on a cheap guy like Mike Gonzalez. Well known for his flamboyant windup, Gonzalez was a valued member of the Pirates and Braves bullpen. After a rough two years bouncing around with the Rangers and Orioles, Gonzalez found his groove with the Nationals in 2012. In 35.2 IP, Gonzalez had a 3.03 ERA and left handed batters hit just .179 off of him. After making $900,000 last year Gonzalez is in line for a raise, and $1.2 million would be more than enough to bring him to Philadelphia
After the above moves the Phillies roster now looks like this:
- Eric Chavez 3B/1B- $2.5 million
- Chase Utley 2B – $15.0 million ($12.1 million against luxury tax threshold)
- B.J. Upton CF- $11.0 million
- Ryan Howard 1B – $20.0 million ($25.0 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Darin Ruf LF- $.480 million
- Carlos Ruiz C – $5.0 million ($3.375 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Jimmy Rollins SS – $11.0 million ($9.5 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Domonic Brown RF – $0.480 million
- Nate Schierholtz LF/RF/LHB – $2.75 million
- Laynce Nix LF/1B/LHB – $1.35 million ($1.25 million against luxury tax threshold)
- John Mayberry Jr. LF/CF/RHB – $0.515 million
- Kevin Frandsen – $.850 million
- Erik Kratz – $0.800 million
- Cole Hamels LHP – $24.0 million
- Cliff Lee LHP – $25.0 million ($24.0 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Roy Halladay RHP – $20.0 million
- Vance Worley RHP – $0.515 million
- Kyle Kendrick RHP – $4.5 million ($3.75 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Jonathan Papelbon – $13.0 million ($12.5 million against luxury tax threshold)
- Antonio Bastardo – $1.5 million
- Josh Lindblom – $0.515 million
- Jake Diekman – $0.495 million
- Mike Adams- $6.0 million
- Koji Uehara- $5.0 million
- Mike Gonzalez- $1.2 million
With 25 men on the roster the Phillies payroll would stand at $172.45 million, well below the luxury tax threshold. With a little less than $6 million in cap space, the Phillies still have the ability to take on some salary at the trade deadline if they find themselves to be buyers.
Ruben Amaro Jr. has a long winter ahead of him, so don't expect him to be active right out of the gate. However, he's certainly devoted to improving the club and helping them conquer another World Series title.
Jake Pavorsky is a writer for Philliedelphia. You can follow him on Twitter @JakePavorsky.