Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsPMC
I covered five players that I think will take a step forward next season here.
Now let's take a look at five players that could regress this year. This isn't a pretty list, and one that many Eagles fans might take issue with. So I will add this caveat: I don't hate any of these players, and by in large, I don't think they "suck." Some of these guys (especially Peters) could still have productive seasons.
But I tried to remove emotion from the situation and look at this from a purely objective position. When doing so, I expect that these guys will not live up to our expectations for how they will perform. Let's get right to it.
1. Sam Bradford
In terms of pure arm talent, Sam Bradford is the best quarterback the Eagles have had since number 7 was running the show. But as we saw with Michael Vick, there is more to playing quarterback than having pure arm talent.
Conceptually, I like the idea of Bradford in Chip Kelly's offense. It plays to his strengths (intelligence, quick decision making, great arm, low interception rate), and will likely give him the best chance in his career to be successful. But in reality, Bradford has been plagued by injuries and inconsistent play, which portends to an uninspiring performance from the former number one overall pick.
When we discuss Bradford's injury history, the focus is usually on his two torn acls. But those aren't the only injuries Bradford has suffered. Stemming back to his college days, Bradford has had a laundry list of injury problems:
- In 2009, Bradford underwent shoulder surgery for his A/C joint that caused him to miss 10 games;
- The following year; he reinjured his shoulder and missed another three games;
- In 2011, Bradford suffered a high ankle sprain that caused him to miss five games;
- In 2013, Bradford tore his acl in week seven of the NFL season, ending his year;
- In 2014, Bradford tore that same acl in week three of the preseason.
For whatever reason, some players just have the injury bug. Maybe it's a vitamin deficiency, perhaps it's weak bones. It is unclear why Bradford continues to miss time, but it is hard to ignore that list when taking into account his expect production for next year.
Even if can stay healthy — and if we are being objective about this, that is a big if — are we sure Bradford is really a good quarterback? I want to trust Chip Kelly on this decision: he studied every throw Bradford made and has first hand insight into the way Bradford operates thanks to Pat Shurmer, who was Bradford's offensive coordinator his rookie year in St. Louis. Kelly believed enough in Bradford to trade Nick Foles plus two other draft picks to acquire him. So my inclination is to defer to Kelly on this and hope for the best.
But as they say, the proof is in the pudding, and Bradford has yet to impress in his NFL career: he is 18-30-1 as a starter, completed less than 60% of his passes (58.6%), has a 79.3 quarterback rating, and has averaged a woeful 6.3 yards per attempt. Yes, some of that had to do with a limited supporting cast in St. Louis. His offensive line was terrible and his playmakers were not making a Pro Bowl anytime soon.
But Aaron Rodgers and Big Ben have played with substandard offensive lines for years. Tom Brady just won a Super Bowl with Julian Edelman and Brandon LaFell as his starting wide receivers. Put another way, great quarterbacks overcome roster shortcomings and make players around them better. Bradford has yet to do that. Is it really reasonable to assume he will do so now, in his fifth season in the league?
I hope I am wrong. And if I am, I will be the first to admit it. But I have serious reservations that Bradford can make it through this season healthy and play effectively for the Birds.
2. DeMarco Murray
I don't doubt Murray's talent or his fit with the Eagles offense. You don't gain 1,845 yards and score 13 touchdowns out of happenstance. And the talk emanating from Dallas that Murray's success is simply a byproduct of the Cowboy's elite offensive line is — allow me to use a technical football term here — pure baloney. Murray is one of the most talented running backs in the league and his one-cut running style fits perfectly with Kelly's zone run blocking scheme.
But here is my concern: Murray touched the ball an absurd 497 times last year, including the playoffs. During the regular season, he carried the ball 392 times.
Anyone that has ever played fantasy football will tell you about the "Curse of 370." Essentially, any running back that has ever carried the ball for more than 370 times in a single season saw a significant decline in production the following year.
BleacherReport.com provides the full analysis here, but here are the most important takeaways:
- 12 of the 28 running backs saw their production drop by half or more the following year;
- 19 missed time the following year;
- 5 missed at least half the year;
- The average drop-off over the 28 follow-up seasons: a ridiculous 39.2%;
- Several players, including Larry Johnson, Terrell Davis, Jamaal Lewis and Jamaal Anderson, were never the same.
Raise that number to 390 carries, which Murray achieved last year, and the numbers were just as concerning: all players averaged a 33 % drop in production, and an 11 % drop in yards per carry.
Murray has already been plagued by nagging injuries during his career, as he has missed 11 games in his first three years in the league (an average of 3.6 per year). Last season was the only year he played an entire season, but he still ended up breaking his hand. Add the Curse of 370 to his penchant for getting dinged up, and it's reasonable to assume that Murray is going to take a step back next year and/or miss some time due to injury.
3. Byron Maxwell
The Eagles signed Maxwell to a big money contract this offseason: six years, $63 million with $25 million guaranteed. While the guaranteed dollars give the Eagles some protection (Richard Sherman received $40 million guaranteed), the Eagles made Maxwell the fifth highest paid cornerback in the NFL. So they clearly expect him to come in and produce at an elite level. But is he an elite cornerback?
It's not easy to fully analyze that question for two reasons. First, Maxwell played alongside three of the best secondary players in the NFL: Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor. It is difficult to parse out how much of Maxwell's play was the result of his own talent and how much was a byproduct of playing next to those guys. (For an example that hits closer to home, remember how bad Patrick Chung played for us? Well, he was the 12th rated safety per PFF.com last year when he played along side Darrell Revis, Devin McCourty and Brandon Browner, and even earned a contract extension from the Patriots).
The second reason it is so tough to analyze Maxwell is because he has been inconsistent in his year in a half as a starter. When Maxwell broke into Seattle's starting lineup in Week 13 of the 2013 season, he was the top rated cornerback in all of football for the remainder of the year, per Profootballfocus.com. And it wasn't like quarterbacks were just avoiding Maxwell, either. He was tested early and often since teams did everything they could to avoid throwing at Richard Sherman.
But in 2014, Maxwell was the 45th ranked cornerback per PFF.com, with receivers catching 63.4% of the passes and quarterbacks having an 81.1 quarterback rating when throwing in Maxwell's direction. Former Philadelphia Eagles, Cary Williams? Ranked 49th.
So while it is safe to assume that Maxwell is a clear upgrade over Bradley Fletcher, I have reservations about whether he will become the lock down corner the Eagles are paying him to be.
4. Jason Peters
Jason Peters is a Hall of Fame worthy offensive tackle, he's been one of the best tackles in football ever since he put on midnight green, and he is one of my personal favorite Eagles players since he joined the team (which is wholly irrelevant to this analysis, so I digress). But he is also 33 years old. How rational is it to expect Peters to continue to dominate?
While it might be reasonable to expect him to perform well next year, he will likely take a noticeable step back from his dominant self. That is the conclusion that Brent Cohen, of EaglesRewind.com and BleedingGreenNation.com reached.
Cohen studied the offensive tackles that played after the age of 32. Of the 15 players he studied, they saw an average decline in their production the following year by 27%. Check out the article, it's worth a read (and his stuff generally; Brent is a fantastic writer). But the main conclusion should be concerning for all Eagles fans: "The takeaway is that even if Jason Peters follows the above progression exactly, he can still be a decent contributor for another year or two. Expecting much beyond that, however, seems irrational."
Peters showed signs of slipping towards the end of last year. And while he was still arguably the best player for the Eagles over the last few seasons, father time waits for no man. So it seems reasonable to expect Peters to regress next year given his age.
5. DeMeco Ryans
This is probably the easiest of them all. Ryans is 30 years old and coming off his second achilles tear. While he was unquestionably the Eagles leader on defense last year and was solid in run support, he was a liability in coverage. So much so that the Eagles rarely kept him on the field in obvious passing situations.
I love everything Ryans brings to this team. He is a great locker room guy that will undoubtedly have a positive impact on our young defensive players. But he was losing a step last year. Add another torn achilles, and I have very low expectations for Ryans heading into next season.
This wouldn't be a problem if the Kelly was fully committed to Mychal Kendricks and Kiko Alonso at inside linebacker. But for whatever reason, Kelly has an issue with Kendricks, and there are whispers that he will remain on the sidelines in favor of Ryans. That could hurt the Eagles on defense given Ryans decline in production and injury history. And if Kendricks is somehow traded between now and the start of the season? We could really have an issue.
Runners-Up: here are three players that just missed the cut:
- Walter Thurmond: He's played in only 36 out of 80 possible games in his career because of injury or suspension. Expecting him to finish the season healthy seems like a pipe dream. The Eagles better hope Eric Rowe will be ready sooner rather than later.
- Brent Celek: Celek is one of my favorite Eagles. A lunch pale, no-nonsense guy that always does the little things to help the team win. But given the beating he's taken over the year, I think he is an old 30. And given the anticipated ascension of Zach Ertz, I think we might finally see Celek take a step back this year.
- Darren Sproles: this has more to do with the crowded back field situation than it does Sproles' talent. For whatever reason, Chip Kelly was unable to fully utilize Sproles' unique skill set down the stretch last year. Given the amount of money the Eagles invested in Murray and Mathews this offseason, Sproles' touches might be even more limited.
