With the clock down to roughly 24 hours until the Flyers and forward Brayden Schenn go to an arbitration hearing, the tipping point is here.
Sure, there's still time for the Flyers to resolve things and finalize a deal with Schenn, but when the clock gets to the final day, it really is the 11th hour of making a deal.
One of the few answers we have at this point is that Schenn will remain with the Flyers. But what remains are a ton of questions about term, value, comparisons and the reasoning behind negotiations reaching this point to begin with.
The term is a bigger question than it should be at this point. The Flyers reportedly offered two years. Schenn will ask for one through arbitration. What the Flyers should be looking to do is lock Schenn up for the reasonable long-term. Four years is the benchmark here, but players like security, and five would be a nod from the Flyers saying they value Schenn.
A short-term deal or one or two years, the max length through arbitration, would only put the Flyers back into this position again in just a couple of years, at the same time other decisions in term and value are being made on budding young stars.
Then there is the value of the new deal. The median of the two sides asking prices seems to be a good place to start. The Flyers offered $4.25 million in the first year, $4.37 million in the second. Schenn is asking for $5.5 million in a one-year deal.
A few weeks ago, as the negotiation period leading to the hearing opened, I wrote that a five-year, $26 million deal made sense for Schenn. That was an average annual value of $5.2 million.
Based on some comparative contracts from this season, the value is also fair.
Within hours of each other, Vincent Trocheck and Reilly Smith signed long-term deals with the Panthers. Trocheck got six years, $28.5 million ($4.75 million AAV), Smith got five years, $25 million ($5 million AAV).
Kyle Palmieri re-signed with the Devils for five years, $23.25 millions ($4.65 million AAV). Victor Rask re-signed with the Hurricanes for six years, $24 million ($4 million AAV). Jaden Schwartz re-signed with the Blues for five years, $26.75 million ($5.35 million). Alex Killorn re-signed with the Lightning for seven years, $31.15 million ($4.45 million AAV). And finally, Marcus Johansson agreed to terms with the Capitals just hours before his arbitration hearing for three years, $13.75 million ($4.58 million AAV).
Between those seven players, the average annual value was $4.68 million. Schenn fits right smack in the middle.
So why has it taken the Flyers this long? Realistically, it is just part of the process.
The notion that Ron Hextall doesn't publically like or respect the progress that Schenn has made is total bunk in my opinion. Teams don't turn their back on the second-highest goal-scorer that easily.
Schenn was given a challenge to break out last season. In the beginning, he faced some struggles, to the point where he missed a game as a healthy scratch last November. He finished the season with career-high numbers.
More than anything, the Flyers are being mindful of their cap situation and Schenn's one-year breakout. The Flyers are looking at this in the sense that they don't want to get burned by one year of solid production and then be stuck with a contract. The Flyers already had to go the buyout route with Danny Briere, Ilya Bryzgalov and R.J. Umberger, and would have done the same with Vincent Lecavalier if they weren't able to complete the trade with Los Angeles earlier last season.
From Schenn's side, it's the answer to said challenge. He did everything he was asked and more, turned in the best season of his career and emerged as a top forward in a lineup that struggles to score. He wants his due understandably.
Even if the Flyers could only finish off a two-year deal now, they would be looking for another possible extension as soon as next season, should Schenn prove that the 2015-16 season wasn't an anomaly. But if the Flyers are facing a one-year deal, they run the risk of Schenn requesting a trade or simply walking for nothing at the end of the season to go elsewhere, thus leaving the Flyers without one of the key members of their Top 6 and first power-play unit.
Despite all of those factors, even the $1.2 million difference between the two sides, the Flyers and Schenn have room to make a deal happen that will make both sides happen and solidify a long-term future, even if time is running low before arbitration.
Kevin Durso is an editor for Sports Talk Philly. Follow him on Twitter @Kevin_Durso.
