The Phillies are 74-74. They are 3.5 games out of the playoffs. They are the height of mediocrity. They could still win the World Series.
What a weird season. The Phillies will play in New York tonight against the Mets, and they will start the game one game behind the Brewers and Pirates, two and a half games back of the Dodgers, and three and a half back of the Cardinals. The remainder of the schedule is:
- 2 games in New York against the Mets, who are out of the race.
- 3 games against the Atlanta Braves in Philly. The Braves are 7.5 games clear in the division. They will play hard to beat the Phillies and eliminate them though. I think the Phillies need to go 4-1 in these next five.
- 3 games against the Nationals in Philly. The Phillies have won 5 of 6 against the Nats, who are in the playoffs, up five in the division, and shut down their number one starter.
- 3 games in Miami against the Marlins. The Phillies need to be streaking by here, and run over these guys.
- 3 games in Washington. By the time these games are played, the Nats will either have clinched, or be in free-fall mode.
So what's reasonable? They can't get in with less than 10 wins, no way, no how. That only gets them to 84 though. What do the others have left?
- Pirates- home vs. Brewers for 3, in Houston for 3, in New York for 4, home vs. Reds for 3, and home vs. Braves for 3. The Reds and Braves should be in by then. This is a light schedule, after this series. The Pirates could go on a run here, if they can beat the Brewers. If not, it's toast. They are 74-72 now. They're not playing that great though. I have them coming in around 10-6 the rest of the way. That's 84 wins.
- Brewers- in Pittsburgh for 3, at Nationals for 4, at Reds for 3, home vs. Astros for 3, and home vs. Padres for 3. The Brewers are an awful, awful road team. I have them finishing 9-7, for 83 wins, even though they've been on fire. I see that ending on the road.
- Dodgers- At Nationals for 3, at Reds for 3, at Padres for 3, vs. Rockies for 3, vs. Giants for 3. I have them finishing 6-9, giving them just 82 wins.
- Cardinals- vs. Astros for 3, at Cubs for 3, at Astros for 3, vs. Nationals for 3, vs. Reds for 3. They have 77 wins now. I'd say 9-6, maybe 8-7, leaving them with 85 or 86 wins. This is assuming they keep playing like they are now.
The Phillies must finish 10-4 or better. 11-3 would be nice. They can do that. The problem is, if the Cardinals take care of business the way the Phillies didn't this past weekend, they'd cruise in. Tyler Cloyd has to keep them winning tonight. Matt Harvey, the Mets prospect, is the opponent, and he beat us once. Tonight's a challenge, but it's one the Phillies now have to clear.
