Free agency looms for Eagles

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Despite the apparent turmoil penetrating the front office at the moment, the Eagles are approaching a fulcrum in the development of the on-field product. This was the opening sentence for this post as written on Friday, January 2^nd at 2:00 pm. Things change fast in the NFL. Which, as it turns out, is both a true statement and an even better opening for the content below.

There are many influential players on the roster approaching free agency on March 10^th. If you count the players who will enter the final year of their contract in 2015, you are talking about 29 players[1] the embattled front office Chip Kelly & his personnel department could extend, let walk, or play chicken with in the next 15 months. What is concerning is the high percentage of the 29 potentially former-Eagles that are current projected starters or major contributors in 2015. Listed by importance to the future of the squad, here are the cases for extension or exile for each of the 29:

Free Agents in 2015

Jeremy Maclin: He’s got to be brought back and it’s a safe bet it won’t be on another one-year deal. Maclin’s going to get big money this offseason and he is absolutely worth it. From a WR talent perspective, the Eagles can’t afford to continue without him. From a financial one, they can afford to pay. He’ll be back.
Mark Sanchez: Matt Barkley can’t get under center in a meaningless Week 17 start. The Eagles will need someone to take meaningful snaps given Foles’ immobility & injury history. Whether or not the Eagles want Sanchez back is largely irrelevant if he gets the chance to start or compete for a starting gig in another city. Which he will: he’s gone.
Brandon Graham: With the once written off Graham, the Eagles are in a position similar to Mark Sanchez: except Graham is a hotter commodity around the NFL. He has shown he can be disruptive in both a 3-4 & 4-3 scheme. He is still relatively young at 26 years old. Considering Trent Cole is likely close to retirement & Marcus Smith is looking—at best—like a developmental prospect, the Eagles will try to bring Graham back. The guess here is Graham gets an offer elsewhere that the Eagles won’t want to match: choosing instead to focus defensive funds in their Swiss cheese of a secondary.
Chris Polk: He is a valuable change of pace back and the only short yardage option in the Eagles backfield. This guy will help extend Eagles drives and, possibly, help end red zone woes that date back to 2004. He’s a restricted free agent but the Eagles staff (as presently constructed, anyway) loves his talent & style. I’d use whatever money you save when Shady reconstructs his deal to extend Polk.
Cedric Thornton: Was a starter for a defensive front seven that allowed 3.7 yards/carry: good for 4^th in the league. Why not consider yards/game? Because this defense faced the equivalent of 19 games worth of snaps. They gave up more yards because that were on the field for longer: yet, still held their own in individual carries. He both needs to and will be back: you can take it to the bank…the teller is Howie Roseman.
Nate Allen: He’ll be gone. Likely replacement isn’t on the roster, though the team remains hopeful that Ed Reynolds & Jaylen Watkins can develop.
Bradley Fletcher: Second verse, same as the first. Again, replacement is likely coming from outside the current personnel pool. Two guys set to test Free Agency in 2016 would love to nab this starting spot outside: Boykin & Carroll.
Jeff Maehl: He contributes on special teams. But, in his offensive career he has 9 receptions for 113 yards & 1 TD. The guess here is that the combination of Josh Huff, Trey Burton, and other new additions to come will force Jeff Maehl off the roster.
Brad Smith: Here is another special teams contributor valued by Chip & his meticulous three-phase focus. He will likely be signed to a one year deal before becoming a casualty to preseason roster cuts. It all depends on how many WR’s the Eagles keep in 2015. Assuming Maclin & Cooper return (neither is guaranteed) to accompany Matthews & Huff, there are probably two more spots for which Smith, Maehl, and whichever WR’s Kelly drafts/acquires will compete.
Casey Matthews: He played well enough when DeMeco Ryans went down to be tendered a contract worthy of a backup MLB. He likely knows playing for Kelly is his best shot to contribute meaningful snaps to an NFL contender.

Free Agents in 2016

Nick Foles: His career to this point reads like a well-known Dickens novel. This past season, it was the worst of times. An injured (or suspended) offensive line, an inconsistent rushing attack, and the loss of DeSean Jackson all contributed to his subpar season. Foles had a chance to overcome these limitations and establish himself as an NFL franchise quarterback. Instead, his decision making, deep-pass inaccuracy, and injury leave the organization (and fan base) in a position to question the QB position moving forward. This is the hardest—and most important—position to figure out moving forward. Foles can choose to play in 2015 as a lame-duck QB or hold out during preseason for an extension. The Eagles will preempt this by drafting a QB in April & the organization will hold nearly all the bargaining chips. Jason Kelce will likely be snapping the ball to Foles to start the season; but Foles will need to perform to convince Kelly/Roseman that he is the franchise QB moving forward. The guess here is that Kelce starts building a partnership with someone else in 2016.
Fletcher Cox: This is gonna be short & sweet. He needs to be locked up to a contract extension yesterday. This kid is a star in the making who doesn’t mind the grunt work and won’t be found maliciously cleating opposing players. He is one of the cornerstones of what could be a stifling 3-4 defense moving forward.
Mychal Kendricks: Athletic, long, smart. Ditto the short & sweet part above. He is part of the future & needs to be paid accordingly. Imagine how much of a force Cox & Kendricks will be when the back end of the defense improves. One more point: these two guys were that good while playing >80 snaps/game. What if the offense becomes better equipped to sustain long drives & the defense stays fresh?
DeMeco Ryans: He’s an invaluable leader in the locker room and on the field. He will be back on a renegotiated contract. He’ll probably even be a starter next season despite a season-ending Achilles injury in 2014. Casey Matthews played well in Ryans’ absence but doesn’t command the defense nearly as well. Assuming he is physically able, Ryans will be back but the Eagles need to work on finding his successor.
Cary Williams: This is a hard one to figure. He is due a base salary of $6.5M in 2015 with a cap hit of $8.17M. The best scenario is the Eagles current CB tandem is phased out by the superior play of talent found via free agency and the development of one of the following: Watkins, Boykin, Carroll, or a drafted rookie. The most likely situation is Cary Williams finishes this contract and begins scouring the sconce supply of another NFL city in 2016.
Nolan Carroll: What could have been? By all accounts, Carroll was on his way to stealing a starting CB role during the preseason: only to suffer nagging hamstring injuries & fall behind Williams & Fletcher on the depth chart. Unlike Boykin, Carroll was brought into the fold at Chip Kelly’s request—or, rather, to his specifications—and seems to be viewed by the head coach as a viable option as an outside cover corner. He will play out this contract, if for no other reason than to provide veteran CB depth on the roster. Whether or not he earns a starting gig & contract extension remains to be seen.
Brandon Boykin: He played well on the field even if a precipitous decline in game-changing plays was entered into the stat sheet. Despite the rhetoric coming from Kelly & Davis, Boykin has been almost exclusively a slot corner to start his NFL career. If there were ever to be a year where he could win a job it would be 2015. Fletcher will be gone. Williams may be gone. Free agency & the draft is an unknown. The next 12 months will decide Boykin’s career in Philly. If he isn’t given a chance to compete for a starting job on the outside, he will gladly cash Lurie’s checks until he reaches free agency and finds a team where he will both start & be compensated for it. I will say this. A lot of Boykin’s future is out of his control if he isn’t given a shot solely because of measurements. I will also say this. Can’t hurt to give him a shot after seeing the starting CB play last season.
Vinny Curry: According to a NJ.com report, Vinny Curry wants more playing time moving forward. You can’t blame his attitude here. Last season he tallied 19 tackles, 9 sacks, 4 forced fumbles while recovering one. All of this despite playing just 32.1% of the 1,159 defensive snaps tallied by Philly this year. He is a productive player, no doubt; but he is likely better suited to a 4-3 defense as an edge rusher. He could garner trade value this offseason or continue to thrive playing limited snaps for Billy Davis in 2015. Either way, it is likely he is not an Eagle in 2016 as he will be traded or be heavily courted as a 2016 free agent.
Bryan Braman: By all accounts, this guy is a complete maniac. He is likely a lifetime special teamer but Kelly places high value on guys like him & Margaros. It is no coincidence the Eagles special teams unit was one of the best in the NFL in 2014. Remember, the NFL placed an emphasis on player safety during change of possession plays. Assuming he avoids injury, Braman could be this generations Ike Reese: making a career as a special teams leader/lunatic.
David Molk: Molk was the next man up when Kelce went down in Week 4. He played reasonably well considering there were two other backups accompanying him on the line. He provides valuable depth and is young. He’ll likely be back.
Julian Vandervelde: The Eagles will start developing the OL of the future this offseason. Jason Peters, Evan Mathis, & Todd Herremans are both old & expensive. Two-thirds of those players missed time due to injury last season. Vandervelde provides always needed OL depth &, if he competes, there is a spot for him as the older guys retire or move on.
Dennis Kelly: This is going to get repetitive. He is young and has raw talent. He’ll be back if for no other reason than to provide depth.
Matt Tobin: Ditto above.
Andrew Gardner: NOT ditto above. Gardner played the 4^th highest number of snaps on the OL this year. This is not among backups. It includes everyone: only Peters, Lane Johnson & Kelce logged more snaps. Gardner didn’t play well enough to warrant consideration as a long term option and will be 30 when the 2016 NFL draft rolls around. He’ll be replaced by someone younger and, probably, more talented.
Najee Goode: He lost last season after tearing a pectoral in preseason. He was to be Ryans & Kendricks’ primary backup. Assuming he returns to normal health and builds on the strong preseason he had in 2014, he’ll be back as organizational depth & a defensive contributor.
Emmanuel Acho: When Ryans went down, Casey Matthews got the larger share of reps: by a margin of 15%. They are both legitimate NFL backups but it seems like Matthews is the coach’s preferred second-stringer. I doubt Acho is back after this contract is up because I’m optimistic a legitimate starter will be found before then.
Chris Prosinski: He just got here and has already seemingly made an impact on the coaching staff. He won’t be cut because he isn’t expensive. It wouldn’t be surprising if he pushes for a backup safety spot next August.
Brandon Bair: This is one of the few guys on this list who is being drastically underpaid and will be brought back. He is great on special teams. He is constantly around the ball in his defensive snaps. He is cheap right now at ~$600K per year. He is an Oregon alum. Check. Check. Check. Check. He will be back assuming he doesn’t break down next year.
James Casey: He is an aging TE who will continue to lose playing time as guys like Ertz & Trey Burton develop. He is valuable to have around for his veteran wisdom but not at the $4M he is due next year. Salary cut or cut outright? Probably salary cut as culture beats cash flow.