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| Not bad numbers, eh? Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
If the Phillies want to trade Papelbon, one team that should obviously want him is the Detroit Tigers. With their problems at the back end of games, and their having the best roster in the league right now, he's the perfect fit to put them over the top and win them the World Series they've been chasing since 2006. Yes, he is owed about $32 million more on his deal, but he's worth it, at least to a team that clearly could win the World Series, and can't afford to lose it on the 9th inning.
The question isn't that though. The question is, would I pay the contract of said player, and pay the price in talent? What's the tipping point where a trade is or isn't worth it? In this case, I think it's one player:
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| Meet Nick Castellanos. Photo by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
Nick Castellanos is a natural third baseman who won't be playing third base for the Detroit Tigers anytime soon. The best hitter alive, one Miguel Cabrera, plays third for them. He can't move back to the easier first base because of the excellent Prince Fielder being there. Fielder can't move to DH for him because Victor Martinez is there. In short, if Castellanos wants to be a Tiger, he'll do so as a corner outfielder, which means that for the Tigers' purposes, it's worth wondering whether you dangle him out there to try and win now. In a pure question of whether I'd trade a top 25 prospect for a closer, normally, I'd say no. In the situation of the Tigers, I'd say maybe. If trading Castellanos means getting the Phillies to give you a larger chunk of Papelbon's money, I would think they could certainly consider it. If they don't, the Phillies could look for other trade partners for Papelbon, which isn't the optimal outcome for the Tigers, so you'd have to think they're gaming this out in their head.
I don't know that the Phillies will even sell (they probably should), but if they do, trading Papelbon is highly likely. The Tigers are a good fit, and they do have a player we'd want, and some incentive to trade him to us. Perhaps tonight's visitor to Coca-Cola Park will be in Philadelphia soon- or not.
