IMAGE COURTESY OF AMY IRVIN
Philadelphia Flyers (41-30-9) @ Pittsburgh Penguins (51-24-5), 3:00pm, NBC
Although it has been determined that the Philadelphia Flyers will be on the road to start the postseason, it hasn't been decided who they will play in the first round of the playoffs. The Orange and Black can play the New York Rangers, the Boston Bruins, or the Pittsburgh Penguins, who they will visit today. Out of the three possible combatants, are the Pens the opponent that give the Flyers the best chance of advancing to the second round?
As it stands right now, the Flyers are tied with the Columbus Blue Jackets and Detroit Red Wings with 91 points. After the Blue Jackets lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning last night by the count of 3-2 and the Wings dropped a 2-1 decision to the Carolina Hurricanes, the Flyers have the advantage going into the season's final weekend, as Philly still has two games left compared to Columbus and Detroit, who each have one. After today's game against Pittsburgh, the Flyers return home to take on the Hurricanes.
Another advantage in the remaining schedule for the Flyers is the fact that the Blue Jackets' final game is tonight against the Florida Panthers, meaning the Orange and Black know whether or not they need two points, one point, or no points from their game on Sunday to remain third in the division. If the Flyers win in regulation or overtime or the Blue Jackets lose in regulation today, the Flyers will finish third in the division. If the Flyers beat the Penguins in a shootout and the Blue Jackets win in regulation or overtime, then the Flyers need to win or lose past regulation against Carolina on Sunday to finish third in the division. The Flyers will also need a point on Sunday if they lose in regulation to the Pens today and the Blue Jackets lose past regulation today against Florida. If the Orange and Black lose in regulation to the Penguins and the Blue Jackets beat the Panthers in regulation or overtime, the Flyers will need to beat the Hurricanes in regulation or overtime to finish third in the division. If that situation were to happen and the Flyers beat the Hurricanes in a shootout on Sunday, the Flyers would finish in the first or second wild card due to the ROW (regulation/overtime wins) tie-breaker, which Columbus would have over the Flyers.
Along with watching the result of Columbus' game, the Flyers will be watching the outcome of Detroit's game on Sunday against the St. Louis Blues. If the Blue Jackets edge out the Flyers for the third spot in the Metropolitan Division, the Flyers will finish with the top wild card spot if they have as many points as the Red Wings at season's end. The only way the Flyers end up with the second wild card spot after this weekend is if they grab one point or less in their last two games and both the Blue Jackets and Red Wings finish with more points.
Of the three possible opponents the Flyers have in the opening round, most people believe the Flyers have the best chance of beating the Penguins, rather than the Rangers or the Bruins. Considering the Rangers would have home-ice advantage in the series, and the Flyers have lost eight straight at Madison Square Garden, and the Bruins are serious Stanley Cup contenders and have beaten the Flyers in 12 of the teams' last 16 meetings, it makes sense that the Flyers may want to face the Penguins in the first round. Philly is 3-1-0 against Pittsburgh this season and is most likely still in the heads of the Penguins from their unforgettable 2012 Eastern Conference quarterfinals series. With that being said, the Pens will have the services of Chris Kunitz, James Neal, Kris Letang, and Paul Martin, a group of important pieces that weren't in the Pens' lineup when the Flyers swept a back-to-back against Pittsburgh on March 15th and March 16th. The possibility of the Flyers playing the Penguins in the opening round is 13 percent, according to Sports Club Stats, while the likelihood of playing the Rangers is 81 percent and the chances of playing the Bruins is six percent.
Aside from the playoff scenarios, a combination of the Flyers' outcome on Tuesday against the Panthers and their puck possession on Thursday against the Lightning is the ideal game for the Orange and Black today. Although they clinched a playoff spot on Tuesday against Florida in a 5-2 decision, the Flyers' didn't play the prettiest game, as they were heavily outplayed at five-on-five. On Thursday, against a much better puck possession team in the Lightning, the Flyers carried play at even strength for most of the game and didn't exactly have the bounces go their way. More times than not, an effort like the Flyers had on Thursday produces the outcome they received on Tuesday.
In a weird sort of way, the Flyers and Penguins play a similar type of game. Both teams aren't exactly powerhouses at five-on-five, but both clubs excel with the man advantage and on the penalty kill. This is another reason why a series against the Pens would benefit the Flyers, as the Rangers and Bruins are much better five-on-five puck possession teams, which tend to succeed much more often in the postseason.
One key to victory today will be Sean Couturier's ability to shut down Sidney Crosby again this season. After Couturier was successful when the clubs met on consecutive days in March, a nice excuse for the Penguins was the fact that both Kunitz and Neal weren't in the lineup, which led Dan Bylsma to put Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the same line at one point. Despite both Kunitz and Neal returning to the lineup, now Malkin is sidelined, meaning the second line won't be as big a threat as it usually is for the Penguins. With most of the pressure on the Pens' first line to produce again, a nice defensive game from Couturier, as well as Matt Read and Steve Downie, could go a long way in this contest.
Another key to success in the two meetings last month was the Flyers ability to not only kill penalties, but provide shorthanded goals. It's not expected that a team needs shorthanded goals to win, but if the Flyers' penalty kill can shut down the Penguins' power play again, the Orange and Black may be able to grab a pair of extremely crucial points in the standings.
After today's game against the Penguins, the Flyers will host the Carolina Hurricanes in a game that could determine who they play in the first round of the postseason or could be completely meaningless.
RECORDS
Philadelphia Flyers
Overall: 41-30-9
Away: 17-16-7
Against the Eastern Conference: 26-20-6
Against the Metropolitan Division: 14-11-3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Overall: 51-24-5
Home: 28-9-2
Against the Eastern Conference: 34-14-4
Against the Metropolitan Division: 20-8-1
PROJECTED LINEUPS
Philadelphia Flyers
Scott Hartnell – Claude Giroux – Jakub Voracek
Brayden Schenn – Michael Raffl – Wayne Simmonds
Matt Read – Sean Couturier – Steve Downie
Tye McGinn – Vincent Lecavalier – Adam Hall
Braydon Coburn – Kimmo Timonen
Mark Streit – Andrew MacDonald
Erik Gustafsson – Luke Schenn
Steve Mason
Ray Emery
Pittsburgh Penguins
Chris Kunitz – Sidney Crosby – Lee Stempniak
Brian Gibbons – Jussi Jokinen – James Neal
Tanner Glass – Brandon Sutter – Jayson Megna
Taylor Pyatt – Craig Adams – Harry Zolnierczyk
Brooks Orpik – Paul Martin
Matt Niskanen – Olli Maatta
Kris Letang – Rob Scuderi
Marc-Andre Fleury
Jeff Zatkoff
TEAM LEADERS
Philadelphia Flyers
Goals: Claude Giroux and Wayne Simmonds, 27
Assists: Claude Giroux, 55
Points: Claude Giroux, 82
Power-Play Points: Claude Giroux, 35
Plus/Minus: Scott Hartnell, plus-11
PIMs: Zac Rinaldo, 153
Average TOI: Braydon Coburn, 22:24
GAA: Steve Mason, 2.51
Save Percentage: Steve Mason, .917
Pittsburgh Penguins
Goals: Sidney Crosby, 36
Assists: Sidney Crosby, 67
Points: Sidney Crosby, 103
Power-Play Points: Sidney Crosby, 38
Plus/Minus: Matt Niskanen, plus-31
PIMs: Tanner Glass, 83
Average TOI: Paul Martin, 24:30
GAA: Marc-Andre Fleury, 2.35
Save Percentage: Marc-Andre Fleury, .917
INJURIES
Philadelphia Flyers
Zac Rinaldo – Suspension (third game in four-game ban)
Nicklas Grossmann – Right ankle injury (day-to-day)
Pittsburgh Penguins
Evgeni Malkin – Foot injury (out for remainder of regular season)
Marcel Goc – Foot injury (out for remainder of regular season)
Pascal Dupuis – Knee surgery (out for season)
Joe Vitale – Mid-body injury (day-to-day)
Chris Conner – Hand surgery (out)
FORMER PLAYERS
Former Penguins in Philadelphia's organization
With Philadelphia: Adam Hall, Hal Gill, Kjell Samuelsson (development coach), Joe Mullen (assistant coach), Simon Nolet (amateur scout)
With the Adirondack Phantoms (AHL): NONE
With the Greenville Road Warriors (ECHL): Gentry Zollars (Wheeling Nailers)
Former Flyers in Pittsburgh's organization
With Pittsburgh: Bill Guerin (professional try-out, development coach), Harry Zolnierczyk
With the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins (AHL): Pierre-Luc Letourneau-Leblond (Trenton Titans)
With the Wheeling Nailers (ECHL): Mike Ratchuk (Adirondack/Philadelphia Phantoms), Paul Cianfrini (Trenton Titans), Tyler Fernandez (Greenville Road Warriors)
