Hakstol’s ‘Odd’ Moves are Paying Off for Flyers

(Kate Frese/Sports Talk Philly)

By Dan Heaning, Sports Talk Philly staff writer 

In his sophomore season as head coach of the Philadelphia Flyers, Dave Hakstol has certainly received a good deal of criticism for his lineup changes.

However, now it seems things have gone from "what are you doing, Dave Hakstol?" to "stay the course, coach."

Whether it was sticking with Pierre-Edouard Bellemare as the third line center, consistently reinserting Andrew MacDonald and Chris VandeVelde into the lineup or benching players many would consider unscratchable, all these at-the-time questionable moves have paid dividends for the Flyers.

When Michael Raffl was scratched, he was coming off a terrible game against Detroit where he had a 43 percent Corsi and had scored only one goal in six games. Following the scratch, Raffl produced a 68 percent Corsi against Minnesota and has seven points in 16 games.

He’s also played his way onto the first line with Claude Giroux and Jake Voracek and that line has become dominant ever since their reunion. His confidence with the puck has never looked better as he’s made some outstanding plays on the rush recently.

Point, Hakstol.

Flyers fans erupted into mass fear and loathing when the head coach decided to sit sophomore blueliner Shayne Gostisbehere. Gostisbehere is an advanced stats darling so his numbers prior to sitting against Winnipeg were actually very good.

However, coaches want more than just strong Corsi and Fenwick, and if Gostisbehere is to be one of the team’s top defensemen, his defensive coverage must improve.

Prior to his benching, Ghost had a 48 percent Corsi in five-on-five situations against the Ottawa Senators. After the scratch, Gostisbehere inflated his shots toward the net percentage to slightly over 76 percent in five-on-five hockey against Tampa Bay. His Corsi has fluctuated since that game, but it has settled somewhat over the course of the last few contests, especially after gaining a new defensive partner.

Scratching Raffl and Gostisbehere seems to have caught the attention of Hakstol’s players. By putting those two in the press box, Hakstol has set a tone that no one is safe from retribution if play is not up to snuff.

Gostisbehere’s old defensive partner, Andrew MacDonald, is no fan favorite. Nothing speaks more to this than the notion that both fans and media implying that he’s only being played to reach 40 games so the Flyers can expose him and protect Brandon Manning in the expansion draft.

No head coach or general manager runs a hockey team like that, and over the course of the last few games, MacDonald has picked up his game. While some might point at his pairing with Ivan Provorov as the key factor to this, he’s actually had over 50 percent Corsi in five-on-five situations in five of the last six games. This includes a 68 percent outing against Ottawa and a 62 percent effort against Calgary when he was paired with Gostisbehere.

Considering MacDonald’s advanced stats are almost always horrible and he’s being used mostly in a shutdown role, this mini-turnaround is something to behold. If MacDonald plays like he has over this stretch, all the conspiracy theories can be put to bed. He’ll be in the lineup because he should be.

Another point for Hakstol, well, if MacDonald can keep this up that is.

An analytical approach won’t really help on the last point. Pierre-Edouard Bellemare continues to center the third line and his advanced stats continue to suggest he probably shouldn’t. Despite playing with quality even strength wingers like Matt Read and Dale Weise, Bellemare’s Corsi has jumped above 50 percent during this stretch once and that was due to his line getting 100 percent offensive zone starts at five-on-five and 60 percent at even strength.

With Read injured for four weeks, one would think Bellemare’s line would be weakened and his numbers will likely drop off more.

However, despite not producing much offense, the Read-Bellemare-Weise unit was playing well together and which led to Michael Del Zotto’s game-tying goal against Ottawa. Without Read, continuing this in the future, though, remains to be seen.

Yet, last week Bellemare was charged with shadowing Aleksander Barkov of the Florida Panthers and Connor McDavid of the Edmonton Oilers. Bellemare rose to the occasion as he helped limit Barkov to one goal. Then he aided in stopping McDavid from producing in even strength situations. While McDavid scored a goal and registered an assist, he produced both points while the Oilers were up or down a man.

"He’s an outstanding 200-foot player," Hakstol said of Bellemare. "Whatever the role is on any given night, he goes out and he gives us 100-percent effort and 100-percent focus. So he’s a real important guy for us from day one whether it’s five-on-five or on the PK, he’s a guy who’s a real leader for us."

Lastly, somehow Chris VandeVelde has become a fan punching bag. Like Bellemare, his advanced stats aren’t too hot. However, VandeVelde has produced seven points in the last 11 games. Furthermore, VandeVelde has five goals and 10 points this season despite being a defense-first, penalty killing specialist.

So while it’s incredibly easy to second guess what have been largely odd decisions by Hakstol, those choice have largely paid off for him and the Philadelphia Flyers. However, will it stay that way?

That doesn’t seem likely, but then that will force the team’s bench boss to make even more decisions. So don’t be surprised when "what are you doing, Dave Hakstol?" is asked again.