Chip’s first offseason as sole captain of the Eagles personnel department is (barring minor moves) in the books. He has navigated free agent waters and waded through the depths of he NFL draft. The seas were often torrid: the direction, frequently erratic. Despite this, the Philadelphia fan base rode the wild ebb & flow throughout: frequently guessing & always reacting to Chip’s maneuvering. So where is the team now? Before we get there, lets take a look back at how we got where we are.
For all of Chip Kelly’s vision, he seems to be a guy that works with a narrow focus. He doesn’t seem the type of football guy that is able to step back and work with a broader perspective. He has long held that establishing a winning culture in the locker room is a main tenet of his organizational philosophy. Evidence, you ask? I present the following:
The #20 overall pick on Thursday night. This is a pick that—per some reports—was just too low for the Titans to stomach in a trade scenario that would have landed Chip his First Mate in Marcus Mariota. This is a pick that was the result of a Week 18 win at the New York Giants: a meaningless victory that—had it been a loss—cost the Eagles a higher pick (it would have been 15 overall) and, thus, a higher likelihood of drafting his QB. Don’t get me wrong, I am not advocating for throwing games. What I will suggest is that you can start some backups and see what happens. At worst, you still win and show your locker room that the guys deeper on the depth chart have the skills necessary to compete & win in the NFL. At best, you compete hard & lose anyway: working farther up the draft board & in a better position to grab an impact player.
The Bradford trade. Chip’s fixation on a single tree cost him part of the forest. He sent far too many resources westward in exchange for the oft-injured QB. Bradford, at this point in his career is simply not worth the following sum of resources: Nick Foles, a 2015 fourth-round pick, and a 2016 second-round pick. I’m fine with swapping Foles for Bradford: but the second rounder is FAR too valuable for a QB under contract for just one year & at such a hefty price (~$13M). In reality, that second rounder could have been used in a trade over the last couple days or on a legitimate prospect in 2016. In return, the Birds got Bradford, a 2015 fifth-rounder, and a conditional 2016 pick that could be as high as a third rounder or as low as nothing. For what they gave up, and the salary they took on, they ought to have gotten more back.
The DeSean Jackson fiasco of 2014. Do we really need to rehash this? Kelly was fixated on fixing locker room culture to the point that he jettisoned one of the 5 most talented guys on his roster for absolutely nothing in return. Again, the NFL is about resource valuation & maximizing on returns. He has yet to appropriately manage the resources in this organization in this regard.
All that being said, there is a lot to like about how Kelly has shaped this roster. There is a ton of talent on a defense that, two years ago, was devoid of playmakers. The additions of Byron Maxwell, Walter Thurmond, & Kiko Alonso—along with the retention of Graham & will make this an interesting group to watch. At worst, they should be better than last year. At best, while they won’t be the 2000 Ravens, they could be a top 10 defense. On the offensive side of the ball, DeMarco Murray & Ryan Mathews will take a lot of pressure off a QB never had playmakers like that in St. Louis. So how does the 2015 Eagles Draft Class fit in? Let’s take a look player-by-player:
Nelson Agholor (WR, USC – 1st round, #20 overall
Player evaluation: completed by our own Kevin Durso. The evaluators for NFL.com has Agholor as a second round pick & compared him to Ryan Broyles. Mockdraftable compared him a little more favorably: that, along with his Spider Chart below:
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Who benefits from the pick?
How about last year’s drafted WRs. Agholor’s versatility will allow Matthews & Huff to continue their development in the slot & on the outside, respectively. This is going to be Kelly’s nucleus moving forward.
Bradford: Add the WRs above to Ertz, Sproles, and the two RBs mentioned above and you’ve got as talented & balanced a skill group as there is in the NFL. It is going to take time for the offense to gel as a whole but once they should, they should be a dynamic unit to watch operate Kelly’s scheme. Certainly, Bradford never had this much talent around in St. Louis.
Miles Austin: While he isn’t going to benefit on the field of play, he is going to have the opportunity to get a head start on his post-retirement gameplan. Being a mentor to Matthews, Huff, & Agholor could prove to be the first step in Austin’s career as an NFL coach: should he choose to go that route.
Special teams: look for some combination of Josh Huff & Nelson Agholor to be big play threats in the return game. Don’t be surprised if each of these guys returns a punt/kick to the house next season.
Who’s in trouble?
Riley Cooper. His days as a viable pass catcher in this offense are likely numbered: not that he was all that prolific in this regard before. Cooper may have a role on this roseter in the long run, but it will likely be on special teams.
Grade the pick: B
Why? There were some talented defensive athletes available when Kelly grabbed Agholor at #20 overall. It is possible Kelly overvalued Agholor: as most had him rated as a late first round or second round pick. The truth is that WR is especially deep in this draft. Less deep was the number of quality DBs or edge rushers available. Shane Ray, Bud Dupree, Shaq Thompson, Byron Jones, and Damarious Randall were all available at 20th overall. It can be argued that an impact WR could have been selected in the second round: see Jaelen Strong, Tyler Lippett, Devin Smith, Dorial Green-Beckham, Chris Conley, etc. Again, I think Agholor is a solid (but not sensational) pick in a position that could have been addressed later…should have grabbed an impact defender first.
Eric Rowe (CB, Utah – 2nd Round, #47 overall, via trade w/Miami)
Player/trade evaluation: Here is the initial post-pick evaluation complete with Mockdraftable.com graphs & video.
The fact that the Eagles managed to get this guy for so little is amazing. They managed to keep both their third & fourth round picks in this transaction. The Eagles gave Miami the 52nd overall pick as well as both their fifth round picks (145 & 156, overall). Of note, the Eagles got Miami’s sixth rounder in this deal as well (pick #191 overall).
Who benefits?
The secondary. Versatility & athleticism like Rowe has shown in his career & at the combine benefit not only the CBs but also Malcolm Jenkins. Rowe can (and likely will) line up everywhere for the Eagles moving forward given the situation. To start, however, Rowe will likely start at CB, according to Chip Kelly.
Whoever is blitzing. It is a fact that talent on the outside—especially CBs that excel at press-coverage—provide pass rushers time to get at the QB. Somewhere out there Barwin, Graham, Curry, Cox & Co. are smiling at this pick.
Who’s in trouble?
Brandon Boykin & Walter Thrumond. This really depends on how you look at it. If Boykin is tired of being typecast as a “slot corner,” he may love that Rowe is here and he could be on the way out. Thurmond likely thought he was brought in as a free agent to start on the outside. That may well be the case if the Eagles ultimately plug Rowe in at safety; if not, Thurmond just got bumped down the depth chart by a rookie with size.
Grade the pick: A+
I love this pick. Not only because of the obvious skill set this kid has, but because this is the first time I can remember where Chip Kelly was patient & let a deal come to him. He likely had calls in to jump up and nab Rowe earlier in the second round but managed to restrain himself and trade up just five picks with the Dolphins. The result is that he parted with just two 5th round picks (and got a 6th rounder back). Rest of NFL be warned: Kelly may be learning the NFL trading game.
Jordan Hicks (ILB, Texas – 3rd Round, #84 overall)
Player evaluation: Kevin Durso did a nice job evaluating Hicks here. According to Kelly, “he’s the individual we saw the most this offseason, whether it was exposure at the Senior Bowl, his pro day, individual workouts, [and] top 30 visits.” Kelly & Co. likely view him as the heir apparent to DeMeco Ryans moving forward. The obviously like him enough to take him a full round (or even two) higher than most, including NFL.com, had him projected to go.
Who benefits?
The starting LBs. This guy poses no real threat to Ryans, Alonso, or Kendricks in the immediate future.
DeMeco Ryans, specifically: See Miles Austin above. If Ryans has any desire to coach when his playing days are done, he has a jump start with a young nucleus that he can help develop.
Who’s in trouble?
Mychal Kendricks. He will be in an Eagles uniform after making it through the draft without being traded. Why? The value just isn’t there. No one is going to offer up the kind of compensation—at least a second rounder—for a one-year ILB that will be looking for big money in the 2016 offseason.
One of Emmanuel Acho, Najee Goode, Brad Jones. Someone here is going to be a roster casualty. The Eagles won’t carry seven ILB in their 53 man roster but that’s what they have on staff right now: Ryans, Alonso, Kendricks, Goode, Acho, Jones, & Hicks.
Marcus Smith III. He had some remaining value as he learned both OLB & ILB last season for the Eagles. If Hicks can manage a larger impact at ILB than Smith provides at either spot, Smith could be gone after just one season for the same rationale as above…just not enough room on the roster.
Grade the pick: C-
This was an over-valuation on Kelly’s part. What’s worse is that Hicks is not going to be a regular contributor until 2016 at the earliest. Some combination of Ryans, Kendricks & Alonso is going to be playing the majority of snaps next year. We know how Kelly feels about rookies earning playing time so it is likely Hicks will need to jump Jones, Goode, & Acho to gain meaningful reps. Now, Hicks could end up succeeding Ryans but that remains to be seen & presume Hicks’ ongoing health: not guaranteed given his history. The following guys, had they been drafted at #84, would have made more sense (in my opinion): Sammie Coates, Danielle Hunter, Sean Mannion/Bryce Petty, Ty Montgomery, Daryl Williams, James Sample, TJ Clemmings, Tre Jackson, Arie Kouandjio, Jamil Douglas…you get the point.
4th Round, #113 overall : Pick traded to Detroit for 2016 3rd Round Pick
This was a frustrating development for several reasons. First, you have to think that the Eagles opted for a future third rounder because they lost their own 2016 second round pick in the Bradford deal. We don’t need to get into this again. Second, the Eagles sat for 107 selections between making one of their own. A TON of talent—in positions of need—got drafted in that time. Finally, if they were going to trade this pick, why not use it to trade up this year and grab a guy that could begin developing now? This was nauseatingly reminiscent of the 2014 draft when the Eagles traded back in the first round—after all of their “targeted guys” went about the 20th pick—to ultimately take Marcus Smith III. This time, three offensive linemen (Clemmings, Jackson, & Kouandjio) went immediately before the Eagles were on the clock, so they ditched out of this year’s draft completely. The Eagles moved up with exquisite skill for Rowe in the second. I would have liked for them to have done the same in this round for an offensive lineman. Chip called it a “short term loss for a long term gain.” I call it a postponed opportunity to improve a unit of need (the OL) for the second straight year
Grade: F
There are some that will say you can’t grade this trade until you see what this pick becomes next year…I disagree. It had value this year just the same as next. Value wasted.
JaCorey Shepherd (CB, Kansas – #191 overall)
Player evaluation: Kevin Durso is back with the scouting report.
Who benefits?
The secondary. The more guys drafted for the secondary the better. The secondary last year was what kept this team out of the playoffs. With the free agent & drafted additions, Billy Davis will surely be able to line up
Who’s in trouble?
Eric Rowe. Someone from this draft class is going to end up moving from CB to safety. My guess is Rowe as he has the experience and size to make an easier transition. Rowe, himself, said he’d prefer to start at cornerback so that’s why he falls in this category…that said, everyones a winner.
Grade the pick: B+
This pick could go down as a unearthed gem. Many pundits have claimed that Shepherd was a steal at this spot & are calling him a “shut-down corner.” That’s the idea.
Randall Evans (CB, Kansas State – #196 overall)
Player evaluation: Durso again with the evaluation. Evans reportedly ran a 4.44 at his pro day and has experience playing three DB positions (corner, nickel, and safety) in college. Versatility, as we know, is the name of the game for Kelly & Davis.
Who benefits?
See rationale for Shepherd above.
Who’s in trouble?
The offensive line…we all know why.
Grade the pick: C+
I am all for drafting depth. I am all for overhauling the secondary. This comes back to the OL thing…I’m admittedly bitter about that.
Brian Mihalik (DE, Boston College – #237 overall)
Player evaluation: That Durso guy was all over it with scouting reports for Eagledelphia yesterday…what a gamer.
Who benefits?
Evan Mathis, Matt Tobin, Andrew Gardner, Allen Barbre. For the second straight year, the Eagles failed to draft an OL. This is going to become a massive problem for this franchise very soon. Aging players & sub-average backups is not a good combination for a team that relies on the run.
Who’s in trouble?
Likely no one. Beau Allen is a rare contributor out of the seventh round. You can’t expect guys drafted this late to do but so much: provide on special teams or fill out the practice roster, for example. This is why you’ll see “project players go this late.” Mihalik fits that mold.
Grade the pick: C.
Why? What else can you reasonably say about a 7th round projection…that’s why. He is a huge body and apparently is incredibly explosive. Kelly’s staff has had up-close looks at Mihalik as Ryan Day (Eagles new QB coach) was employed by Boston College before joining the staff in Philly. He is a huge body that could provide rare length as a 3-4 DE. With a developmental experiment like this, I’d have preferred a big bodied WR but, again, what can you expect from a 7th rounder? With any luck, he will contribute as much as Beau Allen did last year.
