David Murphy is out with a piece that tries to make a good argument for keeping Ryan Howard, but instead makes the best argument for Maikel Franco starting the season in AAA. He makes two main points-
- If Franco spends about 40 days in AAA, he won't be a free agent until after 2021, instead of after 2020.
- Ryan Howard is really worth about $4 million a year tops, and no one is going to take significant money on to deal for him.
Alright, so let's dive into this a bit. We'll start on the Franco point-
- I do agree with his basic economic premise on Franco. Do you want all of 2015 with Franco and him as a free agent after 2020, or most of 2015 with him and him as a free agent after 2021? Pretty easy, right? Right now, that is the choice, and you keep him in AAA to start the season. You could always get around this by negotiating a team friendly contract with him now, much like the Astros did with Singleton, and negate this point. I don't really understand why Franco even factors into the first base discussion though. Yes, he can play it, and someday will probably need to. Right now, he's a very good defensive third baseman that should probably be the starter there. Asche's offensive game wasn't terrible in 2014, but he's not a great defensive third baseman, and his future is probably not at third base to be honest. I'd rather turn him into a utility guy for now, with the goal being for him to win an outfield or second base slot for the future. This is Franco's spot for the next several years, not first base.
- On the money side, Murphy is spot on about Howard's value. The Phillies will have to eat between $50-56 million to move Howard off of their roster in a trade. You would both get little savings and no real prospect to move Howard. Now, first off, I'd do that anyway, because $4 million can get you a bullpen arm or a bench piece that is helpful. Second off, even if you have to release Howard, the difference between the best case scenario ($50 million eaten), and worst case scenario ($60 million paid to not play here), is not enough that it should dissuade you from a good baseball move. Ryan Howard does not fit on this team anymore defensively, is taking middle of the order at-bats away from someone else, and is taking up a roster spot the Phillies should be using on a younger player. I'd rather not get into a choice between keeping Darin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, or Odubel Herrera on this team. All are more intriguing to see play at this point.
All of this also sort of supposes that the options at first base are Howard and Franco. I'd like to see Franco at third base. I'd like to see Darin Ruf at first base. Could Ruf really be a complete bust that isn't worth a roster spot? Yes. Do I think we've seen enough to know that? No. Even if you think Ruf is too old to be a part of a good future team, just getting a good half-season out of him would make him easier to trade than Howard right now. If Ruf can put together 25 homers and 80 RBI's, and even just a .750 OPS, he's an upgrade. My guess is he'd put up an .800 OPS over a full season, and be a much better defender. Even if he didn't, who cares, you expect nothing this season from the team. For a half-million dollars, you get a look to see what you have finally, and if he's not good, you know it's another area you need to rebuild. You have to rebuild it now with Howard. For what it's worth, Ruf has less career plate appearances than Howard had last year.
If I was the GM, I'd be calling AL teams that need a DH and offering to eat $55 million to trade Howard for a C list prospect. It's not a matter of whether or not I think he'll have a better year, or is a good guy, or really any of the other things we've discussed this off-season about Howard. It's really a matter of wanting to look at as many younger players as possible. Howard is not improving and he is not young. For those reasons, and completely independent of decisions on a player like Maikel Franco, I'd trade him away.
