Tonight, Chase Utley will play in the All-Star Game for the sixth time in his career with the Phillies. The 15th pick in the 2000 draft is second to only Mike Schmidt in All-Star game appearances for Phillies position players. It's been three years off for Utley at the mid-summer classic, but in just ten years service time, he's been an All-Star the majority of the time. This is just the first time since his knees started to flare up.
Utley is 35 though, and on a short term deal. The number of future appearances could be low for him. If he stays healthy, Utley could be signed through his 39th birthday (if his options vest), which would almost certainly mark the end for the second baseman. If his career ended today, I'm pretty sure he wouldn't make the Hall-of-Fame, at least not immediately. How much better could his stats look if he played out this season and the next four?
- Utley has 1,514 hits right now. From 2005 to 2009, he was good for 158 to 203 hits a year. Since then he's averaged about 108. He's on pace to break last year's 135 hit pace, and possibly get back into that 160 range. Can he continue that for four more years? Not likely. Another 60 hits this year would put him in the 1,575 range. At 150 hits a year, he'd put up another 600 and end up close to 2,200. I'd say right now it's more likely he's closer to 2,000 in the end.
- Utley has 903 runs in his career, and had 73 last year. This year he's at 51. Assuming another 25 for this year, he'd be at 928. If he keeps scoring 75 runs a year during these years, he's getting another 300 runs, putting him over 1,200. My guess is he falls just shy of 1,200.
- Chase Utley has 225 homers in his career, but just 8 this year, a good year. My sense is that he's done hitting 25-30 a year. It's probably more reasonable to say he hits 4-5 more this year, and averages around 12 a year moving forward. He'll probably finish in the 275 homer area.
- He has not been over his career .866 OPS since 2009. His OBP in recent years is more in the .350 range. He hasn't slugged .500 since the glory days. In short, this number will fall a bit yet.
