Inside the Huddle: Bradford Was Bad But Deserves More Time, Part 2

This is part-two of the Inside the Huddle breakdown of Sam Bradford. You can read part one here. 

Bradford's Inaccuracy

Chip Kelly has sold the idea that Bradford was a significant upgrade over Foles in the accuracy department. At times, that has seemed true. Like when he threw this absolute dime to Mathews for the Eagles first offensive touchdown of the game:

Bradford has excelled throwing the wheel route this year. It is clearly one of his preferred routes, and Kelly deserves credit for going back to the well on this play after the Eagles missed an opportunity earlier in the game on this same route.

But other times, Bradford is simply missing throws, like this throw to Agholor:

Bradford has all of the time in the world here. He steps up into a nice clean pocket and has Agholor wide open on a deep in pattern. His mechanics look fine, and he is not under pressure, so it is unclear why Bradford's throw hits Agholor at his feet. But it is a throw that Bradford has to make if this offense is going to be among the NFL's elite.

Now might be a good time to look at Bradford's historical accuracy numbers.  Consider the following chart, which compares Bradford's completion percentage based on the distance of each throw (the best percentage is highlighted in bold)

As we can see, Bradford is completing only 35.3% of his throws that travel between 11-20 yards from the line of scrimmage, like this throw he skipped to Agholor. This is well below his career numbers which traditionally hover in the mid-40s to low 50 percentile range.  With some time and confidence, Bradford's accuracy on the intermediate routes should improve.

But the interesting thing to me about these numbers is that Bradford is performing at a career best rate on throws behind the line of scrimmage (completing 84.6%) and between 1-10 yards from the line of scrimmage (completing 72.1%).

These numbers surprised me because it seems like Bradford has been missing a lot of easy throws, like this quick slant to Miles Austin:

The ball is about two yards behind Austin, giving Cromartie the opportunity to knock the ball away (he also got away with a clear holding call, but I digress).

Had Bradford hit Austin in stride, Cromartie likely would not have been able to deflect the pass. Look at all this open space for Austin to run:

It bears repeating that Bradford has never been more accurate from within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage in his career.

So while I am tempted to write off some of these easy misses as something that will improve as Bradford gains more confidence in his knee and Chip Kelly's system. But  as Hall of Fame coach Bill Parcels used to say, "you are what your record says you are." So perhaps this is all that we can expect from Bradford moving forward.

There are about five other throws that I wanted to cover but I do not want to beat a dead horse.  Instead, check out this vine created by Kyle Scott at CrossingBroad.com, which does all the work for me in a depressing collection of Bradford's worst throws:

Samuel pic.twitter.com/W7Ah3pqitY

— Kyle Scott (@CrossingBroad) September 28, 2015

Suffice it to say, Bradford had a bad day at the office: he was inaccurate, gave up on plays too quickly, and often made the wrong read. But can he improve? 

What is a Reasonable Expectation for Bradford Moving Forward?

I think we are at the point where we can discount any of the preseason hype that had people believing that Bradford was going to magically turn into Peyton Manning or Drew Brees under Chip Kelly's tutelage. 

One of the chief culprits of these false expectations was how good Bradford looked in training camp and preseason. Some of it is understandable. Bradford has a quick release and throws a very accurate football when he has time to throw. 

It's why we saw reporters drooling over his potential during training camp when the pass rush was non-existent. And it was why Bradford looked utterly dominant against the Packers in preseason and in the second half of the Falcons game. In both instances, the defenses were in soft zone coverage and rarely brought pressure. Give Bradford time and a clean pocket, and he normally looks like a world beater.

But for whatever reason, Bradford's production drops when the bullets start flying. It is hard to write this off as the net effect of Bradford coming off two consecutive reconstructive knee surgeries since he had similar issues while playing for the Rams. Bradford just does not seem to have grace under fire.

Fortunately for the Eagles, Kelly's offense should be able to limit these issues moving forward. The offense is tailor made for the quarterback to get rid of the ball quickly, and the passing game should improve if the team ever sorts out the running game problem. The two feed off each other, and Bradford should get more easy opportunities to attack the defenses down field once defenses have to sell out to stop the run.

Two other factors that deserve our attention: First, Bradford is clearly lacking confidence in his knee. You can see it in his eyes, in how quickly he gets rid of the ball to avoid getting hit, and how sporadic his accuracy has become. That is understandable given that he has missed almost two years of football due to injury, so it is not out of the question to expect to see some improvement from Bradford as the season progresses. 

We also have to consider that Bradford is still learning a new system. Consider this: Bradford has yet to run the same offense one time in consecutive seasons. Not once. 

Do you know how many offenses Aaron Rodgers has run since coming to the league? One.

And have you seen how much better Peyton Manning looks now that they got away from new head coach Gary Kubiak's run heavy scheme and back to the shotgun passing attack that Manning has run his entire career?

Changing offenses impacts even the savviest of veterans. It took Eli Manning half a season to get acclimated to his new offense last year.

NFL offenses are incredibly complex: the route concepts the names of the plays are typically so different that learning a new offense has been compared to learning a new language. 

Now imagine having to communicate with a new language every. single. year over a five year period. Almost impossible right?

Well, that is the situation which Bradford has faced. Yes, Chip Kelly's offense is friendlier than most, especially with it's one word play calling and lack of audibles at the line.

But it is still new, and it will still take time for Bradford to adjust. This problem was made worse by Bradford's knee injury, which prevented him from being a full participant in team drills until the start of training camp in August. So we should expect Bradford's play to improve as we get further into the season.

So what is a reasonable expectation for Bradford moving forward? One comparison I have made consistently is Alex Smith, who is a top 10-15 guy that won't kill you but is good enough to make a run deep into the playoffs if he gets hot.

Both are former number one picks, both had painfully slow starts to their careers that led them to change teams, and both are known for not taking shots down the field.

Right now, Smith is clearly the better quarterback. He has adjusted to Andy Reid's system well and, despite the Chiefs record right now (1-2), has the team primed to be a legitimate playoff contender.

Over time, I think Bradford has a chance to be a less athletic, but better passing version of Smith. That might not get Eagles fans excited, but in Chip Kelly's offense, that might be all we need.

At least that's what I hope.