One of my favorite Simpsons quotes is a classic regarding Krusty's profligacy.
"You took all your money…and bet against the Harlem Globetrotters?!"
"I thought the Generals were due!"
Certainly many Philadelphia Flyers fans thought coach Dave Hakstol was being just as foolish by keeping R.J. Umberger in the lineup.
Coming off a season in which he only scored 15 points, Umberger's lack of offense grew into a goal-less streak of epic proportions. Thankfully, there's a little more good humor after Umberger broke his 50-game goal drought last Thursday night against the Buffalo Sabres.
But how did we get to this point? How could Umberger go so long without scoring, and moreover how he could keep his spot in the lineup while being so unproductive?
Hakstol and Ron Hextall have parked plenty of money in the minors or on the bench, so Umberger wasn't holding on to his lineup spot purely because he's on a big contract. Something else was driving the lineup decision. That something was the "intangibles."
"He does so many other little things well," Hakstol said of Umberger.
This is often the point of divergence between old school guys who like to see things with their own eyes, and new school stat guys. The old school says they're are things the stats don't capture. The stat guys say if there truly is any effect taking place on the ice, it must eventually show up in the stats. If it doesn't, you're using the wrong stats, or the perceived effect isn't real.
The most obvious statistic to look at for forwards is goals and points. On that count, any casual observer could tell you that Umberger's goal drought is evidence of terrible performance. That is probably a case of using the wrong stats. Goal scoring is important of course, but it's not the only thing, particularly in depth roles.
A more meaningful evaluation could be derived from possession statistics. On the Corsi count, Umberger is at 45.6 percent, placing him in the bottom third of Flyers forwards. This isn't great, but must be considered in the context of playing almost exclusively on the fourth line. Against other similar Flyers, it is even with Scott Laughton, and above Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Chris VandeVelde.
Another interesting way to judge Umberger is to evaluate what effect he has on his linemates. Laughton is by far his most common linemate, and Laughton's numbers improve when he is on the ice with Umberger. With Umberger, Laughton is at 46.7 percent Corsi, and even on goals. Without Umberger, Laughton dips to 44.5 percent Corsi, and his goal differential drops from 50 percent to 40 percent.
Recently, it seemed like Umberger was just dragging down Laughton by failing to convert on nice setups by Laughton, but perhaps such an eye test is missing the exact little things Hakstol is talking about.
Things took an even stranger turn in the Flyers' last game against the New Jersey Devils. Umberger was promoted to play with Jakub Voracek, which seems almost preposterous in putting a guy who can't score next to the team leader in assists. The results were surprisingly good. Umberger had one of the best possession percentages on the team, and had two quality primary assists. It's just one game, but that's a good way to start.
Taking a step back, Umberger could even be said to be having a decent season. Despite playing on the fourth line as mentioned above, Umberger's individual shots on goal rate is the highest it's been in five years. His 5v5 assists rate is the highest of his career. His 5v5 shooting percentage is still a paltry 2.44 percent, but it's never been below 7 percent any other season in his career and is likely to begin to regress towards his career mean of about 8 percent.
An ideal fourth liner might play on the penalty kill, where Umberger doesn't often appear. An ideal fourth liner would certainly be getting paid less than Umberger. The 33-year old is not going to morph into a perfect bottom-6 player, but just maybe he is one of the better options down there that this Flyers team possesses.
Either way, he certainly has more of Hakstol's trust than players like Sam Gagner or Jordan Weal, so perhaps we should all look at the bright side and hope for the best.
Marc Naples is a contributor to Flyerdelphia and Sports Talk Philly. Follow him on Twitter@SuperScrub47.
