For reasons I don't necessarily need to outline here, I wasn't too excited about the Embiid injury. There was solid consensus on how the draft would go (and that consensus included us getting Wiggins), but now that's all been shot to hell. In the ensuing confusion though, there is one silver lining; since no one has the faintest idea how the draft will proceed at this point, it's the Wild West of NBA talking head predictions. Anything goes! The Cavs want Embiid still! The Cavs don't want Embiid! The Cavs are trading the pick! Embiid is going 10th! The Sixers are choosing between Smart and Exum!
Ready pic.twitter.com/7cXc4BD6yo
— Joel-Hans Embiid (@JoelEmbiid) June 20, 2014
The bottom line is no one knows anything, and most leaked information at this point is misinformation aimed at gaining leverage in the draft. So come up with your own draft scenario, because you know as much as anyone does! In keeping with that, here's one man's opinion on a possible way forward on draft night for the Sixers. Please note – I have no insider information, no team contacts, and no idea how navicular stress fractures heal. I do however have a computer, a brain, and a tab open with the draft order, so here goes.
Sixer will get another lottery pick. The Embiid injury has thrown the first round into a bit of disarray, and combined with the overall even level of talent in picks 4-12, the draft landscape is fluid and ever-changing. And that's when you dust of your #InHinkieWeTrust hashtag, because where there is confusion and doubt, there is Sam Hinkie making it do what it do. One only need to go back to last years draft and remind yourself how Hinkie took supreme advantage of the Nerlens injury (and it's not an overstatement to say that the Jrue trade all happened because of the reaction to Nerlen's injury). The difference between this year and last year is we had Jrue as a trade chip. I don't think Hinkie will trade MCW for a draft pick (but might for another legit player), and I don't think Hinkie will give up having 2 lottery picks (since that was basically the whole point of the Jrue trade.) So, we need another asset, and my guess is Hinkie makes a run at another lottery pick.
The Celtics, Kings, and Lakers all have expressed interest in moving their picks, and the Lakers strike me as the best dance partner. They have no interest in youth or picks (Celts are in full rebuild, and Kings are in moderate rebuild. Lakers are in win-now mode). Don't listen to that talk about MCW and Thad for the 7th pick – Hinkie never makes that trade, it isn't worth entertaining. The truth in that rumor though is that we'd like the 7th pick, and Thad makes perfect sense for the Lakers (can get 18-10 without a play being called for him). What else can we offer the Lakers (or the Kings for that matter?) Cap space. If the Lakers unload Steve Nash's 10 million dollar contract, they have enough cap space to go after a max player (Melo?) AND someone in the 8-9 million/year range (Kyle Lowry much?). Remember, Hinkie himself has said that we can use our space to absorb bad contracts, and this is a situation where that might work, maybe even with the Kings too given Rudy Gay opting back in.
No surprise Rudy opts in. Sacto needs to keep Isaiah Thomas, even if it may now require salary dump to duck the tax.
— Zach Lowe (@ZachLowe_NBA) June 22, 2014
The Sixers are uniquely positioned (both in terms of salary and short term team goals) to take back some horroible contracts, and do not undervalue that willingness. I challenge you to name one other team in the NBA who would be so readily willing to take back Steve Nash. So pay no attention to the stupid Klay Thompson for the 7th pick rumors (the Warriors are also shopping Klay Thompson to the Timberwolves for Kevin Love – one of those two valuations is way off). Thaddeus Young and the 39th and 47th picks for the 7th pick and Steve Nash. Maybe the Lakers stand pat, but I doubt the 7th pick moves for a better offer than that.
Sixers WILL make a run at Andrew Wiggins. Let's assume the majority of mock drafts are true and the Cavs will take Wiggins first overall. In my scenario the Sixers now have the 3rd, 7th, and 10th picks. They definitely offer the 3rd and 10th to the Cavs in this instance. Given the Embiid injury, now the Cavs are scared of taking him, but that doesn't mean they don't like Jojo anymore. If they can pick up the 3rd and an extra lottery pick, now they can take Embiid at 3 without the pressure of taking him at 1, and get a redo of Anthony Bennett at 7 where they maybe grab Aaron Gordon or Julius Randle, two guys who can help immediately (an apparent focus of Cleveland management). In fact, speaking of Anthony Bennett, if we offer the 3rd and 10th, Cleveland obviously comes back with a counter of the 3rd and the 7th. What if we counter then with the 3rd, 7th, and 32nd pick for the 1st and Anthony Bennett? Maybe Bennett sucks, but we can afford to find out and we have a strong focus on player development. Now we have 2 first round draft picks (Bennet and Wiggins), possible-first-pick-pre-injury Nerlens Noel, MCW, and the 10th pick yet to make. Regardless of the details, if we have three lottery picks, I happily move two of them for the right to draft Wiggins.
Sixers would roll the dice with Embiid. If there is one thing we know abut the Cavs, it's that they do crazy stuff. So maybe they balk at all these moves, or insist we include Nerlens and every 2nd round pick. Well then Hinkie won't make the trade. He puts too much value on assets to be taken to the shed on a trade, so I have zero concern in us giving up too much (more worried about us being too unwilling to overpay). If the Cavs won't play ball, then we make picks at 3, 7, and 10. And in that scenario my guess is we take Embiid (and Bob Cooney recently confirmed this).
Source says Sixers are very much interested in grabbing Embiid at No. 3 should he fall to them.
— Bob Cooney (@BobCooney76) June 22, 2014
If we can get two more starters at 7 and 10 (say Randle and Nik Stauskas), then why not take Embiid and see what happens. Maybe it works out, maybe not, but we're in no hurry to win next year so we have the luxury of waiting. We also have the redundancy of Nerlens and Embiid, which gives us more flexibility (or maybe an indomitable Twin Towers scenario). Personally I don't really like the idea of taking Embiid, but my guess is the Sixers will be ok with it in this scenario.
The Sixers will take Exum if all else fails. If we can't grab another lottery pick, then this whole prediction falls apart. In the event that we're stuck with the 3rd and 10th picks, then look for Exum to be the choice. With 3 picks in the lottery, the Sixers will be willing to gamble with Embiid. With only 2 picks however, we take the next "safest" bet with possible-superstar potential, and that's Exum. Don't dare discount the Aussie connection either with Brown and Exum – practically the biggest knock on Exum is no one has seen him play, and meanwhile Brett Brown coached him once! Taking Exum again indirectly creates another asset in MCW, and while most people are loathe to think about trading MCW, I can think of plenty of hypothetical trade scenarios where I would move him. Maybe we move up from 10 to 7, and then we are watching Exum, MCW, Aaron Gordon, Thad, and Nerlens. I'm already doing my Big Daddy dance.
Thursday is going to be exciting and nerve-wracking for Sixers fans. The safest Sixers prediction for Thursday is that there will be movement. Hinkie has been collecting assets in large part for this night, and don't think for a second he won't use SOME of them. Hinkie took advantage of a shifting draft board last year, and I anticipate he will find some value in another shifting draft landscape this year as well.
