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| Picture by Richard Wilkins Jr. |
I was happy to be there for Charlie Manuel's induction to the Phillies Wall-of-Fame on Saturday night. I generally hold Charlie in high regard for his tenure as manager. Obviously 2008 was awesome.
But can we break that team up already??
Call me ungrateful if you like, but it's over. Chase Utley is down over 100 points in his batting average since April, and is below his career averages in OBP, slugging, and OPS. J-Roll has had a decent season, but is still hitting .241, with below career average numbers in OBP, slugging, and OPS. Other than his basically at career average OBP, Chooch is below across the board too. Oh, and Ryan Howard…. yes, Ryan Howard:
- .219/.300/.380/.680, 18 homers, 71 RBI's, in 473 PA's.
All are well off of his career numbers.
Now, any sane person might say that this means the Phillies needed to break this team up a while ago, and yes, you're right. They should have. They won't though. It basically comes down to poorly thought-out economics, that the fan base won't show up. I'd like to say their wrong, but I'm not even sure. I spent a lot of Saturday night's game arguing with the people we sit with that I'd trade anyone on this team- they wanted them to stay.
And they are. The reality is that all of these guys are finishing their contracts here, at this point. Chase Utley will certainly be here for the second year of his two year deal, and probably for at least some of his vesting option years that run through 2018. Jimmy Rollins will be here in 2015. Ryan Howard probably through 2016. Chooch through 2017. Cliff Lee through 2015, at least. I wouldn't even bet on Papelbon or Byrd going anywhere. The Phillies have decided, right or wrong, that rebuilding isn't going to happen at the major league level.
I'll play devil's advocate for a moment and give them some benefit of the doubt. There are plenty of teams who are rebuilding at the major league level- how many of them will succeed in building a contender, let alone winning a title? How many have in the past? More do fail than not. The Phillies would rather keep gambling on trying new pieces around their old team, and hoping for a 1993-esque lightning in a bottle while they wait for roughly 2017 to come around and some of their top prospects to be on the club. In other words, this group is in place for two more shots.
So how will the Phillies look in 2015? 2016? Here's a rough look at the next three years line-ups, as I'd piece them together to look like right now:
- 2015- Revere/Sizemore- CF, Rollins-SS, Utley- 2B, Free Agent-LF, Byrd-RF, Howard/Ruf-1B, Franco-3B, Ruiz-C
- 2016- Quinn-CF, Crawford-SS, Utley-2B, Free Agent year 2- LF, Franco-3B, Howard/Ruf-1B, Ruiz-C, Altherr- RF
- 2017- Quinn-CF, Crawford-SS, Free Agent-1B, Free Agent year 3- LF, Franco- 3B, Utley-2B, Altherr- RF, Free Agent-C
Now, I'm assuming several signings in that time, and I'm injecting several prospects. That may be overly aggressive, but it's what I see as the only likely way to compete in that time period. The Phillies have to succeed with at least four prospects in that time frame.
The rotation is just as dicey. Only Hamels and Lee are under club control for 2015, with the potential for Burnett to hang around and David Buchanan to make the rotation. This means you're looking at Nola and Biddle and pretty much praying they're ready at worst by 2016. Imhof, Guellar, and others in the low minors are going to be needed probably around 2017 or 2018. Hamels continuing to dominate through his contract is really the only way this team can even hope to surprise.
Beyond that, the bullpen is fine to go, and you can build a bench anytime- provided that the Phillies ever learn to focus on offense there.
This is not the approach that I would take. I would turn the page now on the 2008 team, or rather would have at least a year ago. The Phillies aren't going to do that though. At the 2018, ten year anniversary celebration of the World Title, we'll probably have at least one or two guys still around from that team. How the Phillies do in drafts and player development between now and then will dictate just how bad things get.
