Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsJD
I vividly remember the first time I saw Justise Winslow play basketball. I was excited to see Duke play because of their star-studded freshman class, and I especially wanted to see Jahlil Okafor because I figured he could be a player the Sixers targeted this year.
So I turned on one of Duke's first games of the year. Immediately, Justise Winslow stood out.
While he is not a large guy, he stands out at only 6'6 in shoes, 6/4.5 without, he was physically imposing in his own right. His chiseled frame is reminiscent of Dwight Howard: muscle on top of muscle with an impressive 5.3% body fat.
And while I was initially impressed with his physique, I became even more impressed with his play. Even as a diehard UNC fan, I kept finding myself turning on Duke games just to watch Winslow play. And while Okafor and Tyus Jones were the more heralded prospects coming in, Winslow was the main reason Duke was able to win the National Championship game.
But how does his game project to the pros? Let's break it down further.
Strengths
Winslow projects as a versatile, athletic wing that can get to the rim at will and become a lock down defender against multiple positions. And if we learned anything from the NBA finals, a player that can defend multiple positions is incredibly valuable in a league that prefers versatility and spacing more than a strict adherence to positions.
Lock-down defender
Winslow's chase down blocks were reminiscent of LeBron James; a rare combination of power, precision and agility that became staples on SportsCenter.
Consider this play against Utah in the South regional semifinals in the NCAA Tournament:
Or, like this play against Michigan State:
But don't be mistaken: Winslow's defensive prowess isn't limited to chase down blocks. His strength enables him to body up against bigger power forwards, while his quick-twitch athleticism allows him to stay in front of guards.
It's why I think the comparisons to Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler are apt. To put more structure to that comparison, I think Winslow's floor is Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, while his ceiling is Leonard.
Shooting ability
However, I really don't think that there is a chance Winslow ends up as MKG. The main reason? His shooting. MKG is a versatile defensive stud but will never become a primary scoring option for a team; his shot is a mess, and he hit only 26% of his threes in college.
While he deserves credit for working hard at improving his shot this offseason, he shot only 46.5% from the field, and did not attempt a single three pointer all year.
Meanwhile, Winslow surprised many with his range, shooting 41% from three in his lone season at Duke. This is marked improvement from high school, where he made only 30% of the threes he attempted.
And while Winslow will likely be a spot shooter initially, he has flashed the ability to hit threes off the dribble as well:
While Kawhi Leonard is taller and has a longer reach, his shot is not as good as Winslow's. Leonard shot only 25% from three in college, 16% lower than Winslow. Leonard has improved to 35% from deep in the NBA, so it gives you hope that Winslow, who is a gym rat of the highest order, should be able to become an effective threat from deep.
Winslow's strength also lies in his efficiency and ability to avoid mistakes. He had an impressive true shooting percentage of 58%, and while he is not the best ball handler, he rarely turned the ball over. He also has an incredible basketball IQ, with adequate vision and passing ability to keep defenses honest.
Getting to the rim
But his real strength on the offensive side of the ball is his ability to get to the rim. He is an absolute menace in transition, where he is able to use his explosive first step and strength to bulldoze his way through the paint without hesitation or equivocation.
Anyone else getting flashbacks to the NBA finals this year? A versatile wing that can defend multiple positions, rebound, and lead the fast break is becoming an invaluable skill set to possess in today's NBA.
But he's not just a bull in the China cabinet. While Winslow does not have the best handle, he has shown that he has the ability to slice through defenses with some crafty playmaking as well:
Analytic darling
Finally, the analytics community loves Winslow. The fine folks over at FiveThirtyEight.com ranked him as the second best prospect in this draft. And are you ready for this one? Their model, which projects the odds a player will become a franchise player, starter, role player or bust, actually ranked him higher than Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker. How's that for company?
Weaknesses
Winslow's biggest question marks are two-fold: he lacks the size of a prototypical wing and it is unclear whether he will ever develop into a dynamic go-to scorer in the NBA.
Lack of prototypical size
As I've stated before, Winslow is only 6'4.5 without shoes on, 6'6 with shoes, and his wingspan is only 6'10. For comparisons sake, Kawhi Leonard is 6'6 without shoes, 6'7 with shoes, and has a ridiculous 7'4 wingspan. While it is hard to quibble with only a one inch difference in shoes, the wingspan gives Leonard a considerable advantage when guarding taller players. Winslow will not have that.
Which brings into focus the question of what position Winslow will play. He excelled at power forward in college, but it is unlikely that he can play that position given his size. Which means he will likely need to play either the two or the three. Some scouts question whether he is athletic enough, or a good enough shooter, to play shooting guard.
But I am not as concerned by his lack of a true position. We just saw the Golden State Warriors win a championship with a lineup consisting of Steph Curry and four versatile, athletic wing players in the Justise Winslow mold: Andre Iguodala, Klay Thompson, Draymond Green and Harrison Barnes. 10 years ago Winslow's lack of a true position would have hurt him. But in today's NBA? A team will find a way to get him on the floor.
Can he score consistently?
Finally, Winslow sometimes struggled to shoot the ball with consistency, especially against longer and athletic defenders. Some scouts have serious reservations about whether Winslow can be a second or third option on offense for a championship caliber team. But they said the same thing about Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard.
Just because Butler and Leonard have developed into bonafide NBA stars does not mean that Winslow will as well, of course. But he possesses a lot of similar attributes to those players, and his work ethic suggests that he should follow in their footsteps.
Would the Sixers draft him?
You might be surprised by my answer, but, yes. The Sixers heavily rely on analytics when evaluating players and also want two-way players. Winslow is one of the top rated players from the analytic perspective, and if he can develop into a consistent scoring threat, he projects as a dominant two-way wing player.
While I still think the Sixers take Russell if he is available at three, I would not be the least bit surprised if they try to trade back into the top five to land Winslow. Reports emerged this weekend that the Knicks #4 pick could be for sale. Could the Sixers use some of their future draft picks that they have stock piled to make the deal happen? It's certainly possible. Can you imagine coming out of this draft with Russell AND Winslow? I can. And I am just giddy at the possibility.
