Report: Sixers 'leaning toward' drafting Kristaps Porzingis http://t.co/RG9t18XG78 pic.twitter.com/StBJZEUvrA
— CBS Sports NBA (@CBSSportsNBA) June 20, 2015
Patrick Causey, on Twitter @PhillySportsJD
I am going to sound like a broken record here, but the two weeks leading up to a draft are a breeding ground for misinformation. Agents and team executives feed information to reporters in an attempt to gain whatever competitive advantage they can get.
It's why you heard before the NFL Draft that the Eagles, desperate to land Marcus Mariota, offered Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, Sam Bradford, and three first round picks to Tennessee for the number two overall pick. After the draft, you find out the Eagles never offered any players in the deal.
It's also why you heard last year that the Sixers were going to do everything they could to trade up to draft Andrew Wiggins. Turns out, the Sixers never made a move for Wiggins and instead were giddy about the prospects of landing Joel Embiid with the number three overall pick.
It's hard to separate fact from fiction during this smokescreen period. My rule of thumb is to believe reports that have persisted for a while and disregard those reports that emerge out of nowhere in the weeks before the draft. It's not guaranteed to be right; but more often than not, if a report seemingly comes out of the blue, a team is trying to leak the information in an effort to manufacture whatever type of advantage it can.
Are the Sixers Interested?
So have the Sixers been interested in Porzingis for a while? That's where things get dicey.
The guys at LibertyBallers.com seem convinced of the report, and provided the following timeline:
March: DraftExpress reports the Sixers were one of two teams that attempted to convince Porzingis not to remove his name from the 2014 NBA Draft.
May: Derek Bodner mentions Philadelphia's interest in the center, noting that Sam Hinkie has traveled to Spain numerous times to watch him play.
June 10: DraftExpress' recent mock draft has the Sixers selecting Porzingis with the third pick.
June 12: Sam Hinkie attends Porzingis' workout at the ASM Sports Pro Day in Las Vegas.
June 13: ESPN's Marc Stein reports Porzingis is in play for Philadelphia at pick three, and Chad Ford writes he could see Sam Hinkie "pulling the trigger" on Porzingis as well.
I think this list is a mixed bag, with some of it requiring a grain of salt. Almost every team was at Porzingis' workout in Las Vegas; Hinkie had to be there.
And Chad Ford's latest mock draft was based on what other executives thought Hinkie would do in this draft, not solid intel from within the Sixers organization. So I am not sure that either of these validate the Sixers interest.
On the other hand, Derek Bodner's story is interesting. Hinkie is known for consuming an inordinate amount of basketball games; so he could have gone to see Porzingis multiple times just as a matter of course. But that seems like a significant amount of capital to invest in seeing a guy when you can just as easily watch his games on tape. So unless Hinkie is attempting to throw up the greatest smokescreen of all time, I think it is safe to assume he made the trek overseas for a reason. Hinkie liked what he saw, and is seriously considering drafting Porzingis.
Another fact that I just cannot seem to escape: the statement Hinkie released following the report that Embiid's foot injury had not fully healed. I wrote at the time that it was surprising Hinkie said anything at all, since it was against his M.O. of keeping everything close to the vest. I assumed that it meant the worst for Embiid's prognosis. But I kept wondering if there was something more to this.
Then it hit me: the statement could have been a calculated step by Hinkie to justify the Sixers' eventual selection of Kristaps Porzingis.
Think of it this way: the Sixers have spent their last three first round picks on big men: Joel Embiid, Nerlens Noel and Dario Saric. If the Sixers turned around and drafted another big? Especially a relative unknown from Europe while fan favorite D'Angelo Russell was available?
Sixers fans have been incredibly supportive of the team's rebuilding plans thus far; but even the most ardent Hinkie supporter might have a hard time accepting this.
And while I doubt Hinkie cares much for what fans think, the Sixers are still a business, and they know that fans' patience is a limited, and valuable, resource. Eventually you have to throw them a bone or they will all but tune you out (Just ask the Phillies).
But with Embiid possibly hurt, now it is perfectly reasonable for the Sixers to draft another big. Maybe I am just cynical, but this statement could have been a way for the Sixers to validate the Porzingis selection.
Is Porzingis Worthy of a Top Three Pick?
Smokescreens and calculated statements aside, is Porzingis worthy of a top three pick? This, too, is unclear.
Some scouts and draft experts swear by him. Recently, ESPN.com's Fran Fraschilla compared Porzingis to a combination of Dirk Nowitzki, Andrei Kirilenko, and Pau Gasol. That's obviously some pretty high praise.
But other experts are not convinced Porzingis is worthy of such a high pick. AJ Mitnick at SheridanHoops.com wrote last week that "[w]hile Porzingis is a lottery lock with great potential, after seeing him a great deal these past two years, I can tell you he is being overvalued right now." The biggest red flags? Porzingis' low rebound rate and inability to carry his team to the playoffs in the Spanish league.
Heck, even the analytic community is divided over Porzingis' potential. Kevin Pelton of ESPN.com ranks Porzingis as the third best prospect in this class behind Karl Anthony-Towns and D'Angelo Russell.
But others in the analytics community are less effusive in their praise, saying Porzingis' numbers put him in the Andrea Bargnani and Danilop Gallinari camp. Neither player is a bust like Darko Milicic or Jan Vesley. But neither guy is top three material, either.
I have my reservations. Porzingis stock has shot up draft boards lately because of his impressive Las Vegas workout (despite what Chad Ford reports here).
If it were up to me, I would take Russell or Mudiay over Porzingis, and I might even consider Justise Winslow. Yes, Russell and Mudiay fit a need, and you should never draft just for need. But they also have extremely high ceilings.
I am also concerned about the report that Porzingis does not want to come play for the Sixers. If, as Chad Ford stated on 97.5 The Fanatic this morning, Porzingis won't come over if the Sixers draft him, that could be a huge blow to the Sixers organization. They simply cannot expect the fans to be okay with taking another first round guy who won't play for the team next season.
So even if the reports are true, and the interest is legitimate, I think the Sixers have to pass on Porzingis.
