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My friend Frank Klose makes a quite intelligent musing about David Montgomery and ticket sales:
The reason that I am writing is that I was a full season ticket holder from 2008-2013. 2014 is the first year I did not renew my full-season plan. The reason is not one that you might expect: I am declining to purchase tickets because the Phillies refuse to rebuild.Yes, your comments in an interview with Kevin Cooney of the Bucks County Courier Times are the reason I do not buy tickets:“In 1998, what were we drawing? Where were we ranked of the franchises in the city? We were last,” Montgomery said. “When I took over, we thought it was a moral victory to go 44-46 in the second half and still lose 97 games, drawing a million and a half and we couldn’t get into a new ballpark.“Some people say that the Phillies worry too much about attendance. Yes, we do. When you are low in attendance, the risk is only on the upside. When you are (drawing well), the risk is dropping any further. And that’s what we’re trying to avoid.”What is the result of the refusal to rebuild? Mediocrity. I work hard for my money, and I really do not wish to pay for mediocrity.The problem with trying not to let things go is that as players decline, you will get diminished performance. Phillies fans still do love Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz, and Ryan Howard. Some games we get to see performances from them that remind us of their former glory. But the reality is that they are not 100% of their old selves. That means you will need to find players to supplement them that will be more than adequate at the other four positions. With so much money committed to those three, you cannot.
Amen. I'd argue they're not mediocre though- they're bad. The Phillies went 73-89 last year. They're set to lose over 90 this year with the team they have. They're a bad squad. It's not that Howard, Utley, Rollins, and Chooch aren't better than most of this 25 man roster. It's that they're not as good as they used to be, and we don't have the money to put an improved supporting cast around them. It is, by definition, time to blow this team up.
David Montgomery is stuck in a time-warp though. His time-warp is to the 1980s. That's the last time the Phillies had a championship team in decline. The result? After 1983, the Phillies were bad for a decade, choosing to let all of their old heroes play until they wanted to go. Mike Schmidt played until his retirement, Steve Carlton close to it, and the supporting cast continued to decline (and we traded this big prospect named Ryne Sandberg). Then we got lucky in 1993 and almost won, and that group spent the next four or five years declining before our eyes. Do I not hold Daulton, Dykstra, and Kruk up as childhood idols? Of course I do. Allowing them to decline in Philadelphia, much like the 1980 team did in the previous decade, was not good for my team of choice though. It was what the Phillies did though.
The reason they did it was ticket sales. The Phillies, much like some other franchises in town, think people want to come watch their previous heroes, win or lose, more than watch a new group that might win in the future. Look at what Montgomery cites there. He cites 1998. That's the year after the Phillies sent Daulton and Eisenreich to Florida, basically marking the bitter end of the 1993 group. Montgomery thinks the decline in ticket sales in 1998 is the ill lesson to learn, not that the Phillies let their team decay into that mess.
This idea of keeping guys as "Phillies for life" is why we have Ruben Amaro Jr. as GM, and not Arbuckle. It's why the Phillies haven't been a real contender for the post-season in three years, and yet the core of the team remains unchanged. It's why Chase Utley and Carlos Ruiz recently got contract extensions, as did Jimmy Rollins three years ago, and that extends to why Tony Gwynn Jr. and John Mayberry Jr. are around. The Phillies won't rebuild because they are afraid of not selling tickets, because that's what they think the fans want. They think the fans would rather see Chase Utley retire a Phillie than be good in 2015 or 2016. Hence, we get to watch Dom Brown and Ben Revere.
And what of Brown and Revere? I'm with Frank here too, Brown has to go. He's a busted prospect that never made it. He had a good month that's it. He is what he is, as is Revere. Revere does a good job of hitting for a decent (and I stress decent) average, but doesn't get on base nearly enough, has no arm, and has no power. He'd have to get on a lot more and run down a lot more fly balls to overcome his problems. No one looks at these outfielders and sees Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino out there. This is not a championship combo.
Which gets to my basic point- not only do the Phillies need to blow this roster up, they need to get as much roster turnover as possible moving forward. Cody Asche, Darin Ruf, and Cesar Hernandez are the only three position players i'm overly interested in seeing much more of this year. I'd like to see a whole new outfield in 2015. I'm fine with keeping Cole Hamels, and if Cliff's value is down right now, fine. Beyond that, I'd like to move anyone in the rotation but maybe Buchanan, who I'll watch more for now, unless he helps us move someone else. I'd move towards our youth in the bullpen too, so move the veterans out.
Some say it's impossible to part ways with our lesser players. I disagree. You don't have to tender contracts to Brown and Revere next Winter, assuming you can't just trade them. Other than long-term contracts, you're not stuck with anyone. This team needs to flush out a lot of trash.
The bottom line- this team needs to rebuild and worry less about ticket sales. More tickets will sell when they win games.
