By Chris DiFrancesco
He was a Rule 5 pickup by the Texas Rangers in 2008. He was being developed as a second baseman and ended up playing nearly his entire stay in the minor leagues between second base and shortstop.
Fast forward to 2015 and Odubel Herrera is of the main centerpieces in the rebuild of the Philadelphia Phillies.
Unlike Cody Asche, who's move from third base to the outfield has been deemed a failure, Herrera's transition to centerfield has been nothing short of a success. Yes, he doesn't take the best routes on fly balls which was highlighted on Cole Hamels' no-hitter in Chicago against the Cubs, but he makes up for all his inefficiencies with his speed and decisive first step off the bat.
Herrera was moved to centerfield because the Phillies believed he was a better version of Ben Revere, who also had lackluster arm-strength (being kind) and also took dreadful routes on fly-balls. All in all, the Phils knew they couldn't get worse results by moving Herrera to center and Revere to left.
While Herrera's first few weeks in the outfield were a bit hectic at times, he picked up the position rather smoothly. He became quite an asset for Ryne Sandberg/Pete Mackanin throughout the entire season.
Herrera's defensive numbers were quite telling when dug into deeper. 'El Torito' ranked 8th among all major league centerfielders in fWAR and 9th in bWAR. Since 2002, fWAR also calculates defensive stats.
"For position players, the largest point of contention comes in measuring defense and estimating the positional adjustment. Our measures of both are more uncertain than our measures of offense, so players who get a good amount of their value through their defensive ratings likely have more uncertainty around their WAR value than players who have defensive value closer to average. This does not mean that WAR is wrong or biased, but rather that it is not yet capable of perfect accuracy and should be used as such."
It's certain that 2016 will be another building block for Herrera defensively. He has the elite abilities. Now he just has to practice and work on gaining that needed experience to make himself an elite outfielder in this league. Something that doesn't come around too often in centerfield.
There's obvious concerns surrounding Herrera's glove. But fans cannot expect gold glove success overnight coming from a kid who was brought up in the minor league system as a middle-infielder, it's not fair to judge yet.
Shane Victorino wasn't overnight success in centerfield. And Phillies fans should remember that. There were many times where people questioned whether or not Victorino was worth being an everyday player if his glove and decision making didn't improve in the outfield. He worked on it vigorously and became one of the most beloved outfielders in franchise history.
At the end of the day, Herrera CAN become a gold glove type outfielder. But it won't be now. But remember, he's almost 24.
Offensively, Herrera was tremendous. One sabermetric stat revealed just how effective Herrera was in 2015. Of the 141 qualified hitters in MLB, Herrera produced the highest BABIP at .387. Higher than the AL batting champion Miguel Cabrera and NL MVP candidate Paul Goldschmidt.
BABIP (Batting average on balls in play) measures how many of a batter’s balls in play go for hits, or how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits. This stat excludes long balls.
Herrera's 2015 slash line was mightily impressive for a Rule 5 rookie, .297/.344/.418/.762. Herrera's eight homers are also nothing to scoff at. One stat we can harp on are his 28 walks. The Phils will look to Herrera to be the centerpiece at the top of the batting order. The base on ball totals need to rise. That eye comes with experience and maturity. Expect the walk number to rise in 2016.
Stealing bases seemed to be a struggle for Herrera last season swiping 16 bases in 24 attempts. With his speed he should easily be counted upon to steal over 20-25 bases. He'll most definitely see a rise in chances in the coming season being a leadoff hitter.
'El Torito' is without a doubt a focal point of the Phillies rebuilding stage. His team leading WAR of 3.9 in 2015 proves that as GM Matt Klentak works on leading a resurgence to this club, Herrera will have to be a leader moving forward. Does he have that ability? Undoubtedly.
Herrera wears his emotions on his sleeve, we saw that in HD last season. Now, he needs to grow up as a baseball player and avoid the proverbial sophomore slump that seems to plague most players not named Mike Trout.
I am a firm believer in Herrera being one of the core young cats who can lead this franchise back to its winning ways. Do I think it'll be something that happens in 2016? Maybe. All of the above factors need to progress. His defense needs to evolve upward, his baserunning skills need to improve immediately, and his slash line should either stay the same or slant even more up.
Overall, Herrera is a piece. An essential piece to Klentak's vision.
