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| So long ago…. |
Well, it sucks to watch other teams play in the World Series. It really, really sucks, to paraphrase "the Waterboy." We're going to need some new players if we're going to play in the World Series though, as a 73-89 team doesn't qualify for the post-season. In other words, our collection of old players, midling players, and young players that we have need some upgrades. Let the off-season begin.
Let's start with the obvious- the Phillies have $73 million tied up in just Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, and Cliff Lee. Add on Papelbon, Utley, and Rollins, and you now have another $36.5 million tied up, putting just those six players at $109.5 million. Now tack on $11 million for Mike Adams and Miguel Gonzalez, and you are at $120.5 million. That's eight players out of 25. The Phillies have 17 more spots to fill. As I've been saying all of these contracts in terms of their average-annual-value, which is how MLB figures out the luxury tax, I should also note that the luxury tax goes up to the $189 million mark. With that in mind, it's reasonable to think the Phillies may have as much as $68.5 million available to spend.
Then there's the revenue side, which I should remind you is still fine. Attendance was down, but still easily past the old-landmark of 3 million. The money from their TV deal, which pays them $35 million a year, will be augmented by an additional $25 million from the MLB TV deal. This isn't even figuring in the potential new TV deal, which if it actually comes out in the $189-275 million range per year that people are talking about, is a game changer.
So the revenue is fine, there are a lot of mega contracts already on the books, as well as just guaranteed ones in general, and the final piece is the players we know will be back, and are price controlled. Dom Brown, Ben Revere, Cody Asche, Jake Diekman, Antonio Bastardo, Darin Ruf, Cesar Hernandez, Erik Kratz, and Freddy Galvis are all likely to be back, and at least relatively cheap. Kyle Kedrick probably should be on that list, but not too cheap. MLB Trade Rumors projects Revere, Bastardo, and Kendrick to bring in about $10.1 million in arbitration. I'm saying more like $10.5. The rest of that list? About $3.5 million. All told, you're at $134.5 million for 18 players.
You still need a catcher, at least another outfielder, one more bench player, another starting pitcher, and three more relievers, plus some depth. In other words, it's a busy off-season.
I'm sure that many of the blogs will cover the bigger name possibilities (Tanaka, Beltran, Chooch, etc.), but here's a few names that I've seen that intrigued me to discuss.
- Grant Balfour– This makes the most sense if the Phillies moved Papelbon somehow, however they will probably check in on him either way. The big problem on this one is that he's going to cost nearly the same in AAV as Papelbon, so if he's coming in to set-up, forget it now.
- Nate McClouth– Again, not likely to be a fit. He's lefty. With that said, he'd be a very nice fifth guy off the bench. He can hit righties very well and he can run. No, his defense is not all that good, and no, he's not a great starting option. He's not bad though. Still doubtful.
- Over at Yankee's blog, River Avenue Blues, they discuss Texas outfielder David Murphy. He's coming off of a bad year, and had a tremendously bad BABIP in doing it. He could be a risk, but one that comes cheaper than usual, with a high upside. He's basically a platoon bat though.
