Patrick Causey, on Twitter @InsdeTheHuddle
The New York Giants are riding a 3-0 win streak and are leading the NFC East with a 3-2 record. But according to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Philadelphia Eagles are the favorites to win the NFC East.
Coming into Monday night's key divisional showdown, the Eagles currently have a 52% chance of winning the division according to the FPI, while the Giants currently have a 29% chance of winning.
The FPI is defined by ESPN as a "measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is." This comprehensive statistical approach measures every single play from each team and considers other factors such as strength of up coming schedule, injuries, and expected future performance of a team.
The FPI currently ranks the Giants as the 16th best team in the league, in part due to their unimpressive play against bad teams like the San Francisco 49ers.
Surprisingly, the Eagles rank in the top five of the FPI (I was just as surprised as you), with the number two overall defense (less surprising).
With a win, the Eagles would have a 62% chance of winning the NFC East, compared to a 20% chance for the Giants. If the Giants win, they would have a 52% chance of winning the division, while the Eagles chances would plummet to just 27%.
We don't need advanced statistical models to tell us that this is a must win game for the Eagles. They are playing at home and are 0-2 in the division. It would take damn near a miracle for the Eagles to win the division if they start the season 2-4 with an 0-3 record in the division. So while Eagles v. Giants is normally a big game, this one carries added significance.
