By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor
It's one of the worst kept secrets in baseball that the Philadelphia Phillies are fond of Miami Marlins outfielder Christian Yelich. They may, however, not be fond enough of him to meet what is sure to be a very high asking-price.
According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Phillies remain interested in Yelich, but don't seem to have any serious traction with the Marlins:
Another option for the Phillies is to trade for Marlins center fielder Christian Yelich, a longstanding target. Yelich remains an ideal fit — a high-on-base, middle-of-the-lineup threat who plays good defense and is affordable enough for the Phils to still splurge in next year’s free agent market. But to this point, the Phillies and Marlins are not seriously engaged, sources say.
At 26, it's easy to see why the Phillies think highly of Yelich. He's young, and he's guaranteed just $44.5 million through 2022. He slashed .282/.369/.439 with 18 home runs, 81 RBIs and a 4.5 fWAR in 2017, which is a steal given his current salary.
Still, the fit may not be as strong as it seems.
The same things that make Yelich so attractive – he's young, cheap and controllable – make the Marlins less likely to trade him unless they are blown away by an offer. No one's debating how talented Yelich is offensively, but it is fair to debate whether trading a major package for him would make sense for the Phillies.
Let's start with this: don't be fooled by the Gold Glove Award that he won in 2014 – he hasn't been an elite fielder in center field. In 2014, Yelich did feel his position very well. According to FanGraphs, he posted a 12.8 UZR, a 14.1 UZR/150, a 6.7 dWAR and saved 13 runs. That came in left field. In center field, he paled in comparison to what Odubel Herrera did in 2017:
Odubel Herrera vs. Christian Yelich in center field in 2017, per @fangraphs:
Herrera: 6.8 UZR, 9.3 UZR/150, .928 RZR, 4 defensive runs saved
Yelich: 0.1 UZR, -0.7 UZR/150, .895 RZR, -6 defensive runs saved pic.twitter.com/RplxNkti66
— Tim Kelly (@TimKellySports) January 5, 2018
It's fair to wonder if you could get out of a Yelich trade without having to give up Herrera (more on that in a minute), but if you could, there's a case to be made that Yelich wouldn't be a center fielder with the Phillies. He probably wouldn't be a left fielder either with Rhys Hoskins playing there, but he would likely field better in right field than he has in center. But is a right fielder not named Harper or Judge worth parting with a major package for?
With a high asking-price, it wouldn't be as simple as the Phillies building a package around Nick Williams, as some have suggested. The Phillies would likely have to part with at least one of their top-tier pitching prospects in a package for Yelich. (To be clear, that would simply be the start of a hefty group of talents that it would take to land Yelich.) The pitching-needy Phillies then wouldn't have said pitcher(s) to either pitch for them, or be used in a trade package to acquire a controllable starting pitcher.
Yelich would immediately become one of the best offensive talents in the entire organization, though it's fair to wonder if the outfielding talent the organization already has isn't enough to compete with. With the Phillies signing of Carlos Santana, Hoskins will likely be the team's left fielder for the foreseeable future. Herrera, who is signed to a team-friendly contract of his own, was an All-Star in 2016 and graded out as one of the best fielding center fielders in 2017. The Phillies have also spent three consecutive first round picks on outfielders – Cornelius Randolph in 2015, Mickey Moniak in 2016 and Adam Haseley in 2017 – and (for what it is worth) have Roman Quinn and Dylan Cozens a step away from the major leagues.
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Outfielders truly are the most replaceable players on the field. Think of the 2007-2011 Phillies. During a five year stretch – albeit one that was the most successful one in franchise history – the Phillies had Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, Pat Burrell, Raul Ibanez, Aaron Rowand, Michael Bourn and Hunter Pence all play for their team.
The best example of how easily attainable talented outfielders are is that Bryce Harper, Charlie Blackmon, A.J. Pollock, Adam Jones, Marwin Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen could all potentially be free-agents next offseason. J.D. Martinez, who hit 45 home runs in 2017, was available at the trade deadline for a fairly affordable price last year.
If the Phillies feel the Marlins asking-price for Yelich is one below market value, then it would make sense to mount a serious push for him. But all indications are that, if anything, their asking-price will be over market value. For now, the Phillies may continue to be window shoppers on Yelich.