Jake Arrieta "feels good" about chances Phillies opt into final two years of contract

Jake Arrieta “feels good” about chances Phillies opt into final two years of contract

Tim Kelly

April 12 2018

By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor

Jake Arrieta's free-agent contract with the Philadelphia Phillies was largely reported as a three-year/$75 million contract, because that's what it's most likely to end up being.

However, after one of the more frustrating free-agent stints in recent memory, Arrieta's agent, Scott Boras, negotiated a fairly complicated deal for one of his highest profile clients.

After year two of the contract, when Spotrac notes that Arrieta will have already collected $55 million from the Phillies, the former Cy Young Award winner can opt-out of his contract and test the free-agent market again. The Phillies could prevent Arrieta's ability to test free-agency by exercising $20 million options for 2021 and 2022.

Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports, in a piece discussing the Chicago Cubs attempt to retain Arrieta, says that Arrieta thinks there is a distinct possibility that the Phillies are ultimately faced with the decision to exercise the two options:

Ultimately, Arrieta got a $75 million, three-year deal with the Phillies that includes an opt-out after two years, by which time he will be paid $55 million (or a rather $27.5 million a year) and an extension option for the Phillies at $40 million over two years. Arrieta is said to feel good about the AAV he got, the chances he could turn it into something even better and also the chances that the Phillies “opt in” for him for the final two years.

There's a few angles worth considering here. The first is that while Arrieta's confidence is admirable, it feels rather unlikely that he'll opt-out of a guaranteed $20 million in 2020. If Arrieta and his team ultimately had to adjust their free-agent expectations for him entering his age-32 season – when he's shown decline, but has still been an effective pitcher – it's difficult to imagine the market being friendlier after two more birthdays.

If Arrieta does give the Phillies the impression that he's going to opt-out, they would be forced to consider exercising the two $20 million options that he has for his age-35 and age-36 seasons. If general manager Matt Klentak and the Phillies did exercise those options, Arrieta would no longer be able to opt-out and test free-agency. He really wouldn't have a reason to. On top of the two $20 million options, Arrieta would still be guaranteed $20 million in 2020, the final guaranteed year of his contract. So if the Phillies exercised the options, they would be essentially giving a three-year/$60 million deal to Arrieta.

The feeling here is that for as confident as Arrieta is in himself, he's pretty unlikely to opt-out after the second year of his contract and force the hand of the Phillies. If he does, the Phillies may very well let him walk over guaranteeing him $60 million between the ages of 34-36.

On top of the fact that spending that amount on Arrieta at that stage of his career likely won't be in the best interests of any team, it almost certainly won't make sense for the Phillies. Aaron Nola will be in the fold. Nick Pivetta, who is off to a scorching hot start, increasingly looks like he could be a part of the team's long-term plans. There's still hope that Jerad Eickhoff bounces back to his 2016 form when he returns from the disabled list. And MLB Pipeline projects that Sixto Sanchez, Adonis Medina, JoJo Romero, Franklyn Kilome, Ranger Suarez, Seranthony Dominguez and Enyel De Los Santos will all reach the major leagues at some point in 2019. The Phillies likely would be better off allocating $20 million annually to another part of their roster.

For the time being, the Phillies hope that Arrieta is able to bring stability to the top of their rotation with the aforementioned Nola. In his first regular season start with the Phillies last Sunday, Arrieta allowed three hits and two earned runs across four innings in a 6-3 loss to the Miami Marlins. He's scheduled to make his second start with the team this Saturday against the Tampa Bay Rays.

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Jake Arrieta “feels good” about chances Phillies opt into final two years of contract

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