By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 
The Houston Astros didn't even need to bring in former Philadelphia Phillies closer Ken Giles in the ninth inning of Game 7 of the ALCS, because Lance McCullers Jr. pitched four scoreless innings to close out the team's first American League pennant. It was a strange turn of events, because if the Phillies had their way, McCullers would have headlined the package that the team acquired in return for Giles.
On Dec. 2, 2015, ESPN's Jerry Crasnick reported that the Phillies and Astros had discussed Giles with the Phillies, and the Phillies had asked about two of the best young arms in the team's organization, Vince Velasquez and McCullers. The Astros reportedly were dead-set against moving McCullers in any trade for Giles, so general manager Matt Klentak moved his focus to Velasquez.
A week later, during the MLB Winter Meetings, the Phillies agreed in principle to trade Giles to the Astros for a package centered around Velasquez. The Astros never appeared to seriously consider parting with McCullers. After some initial concerns with the physical of Velasquez, the Phillies agreed to an adjusted trade, sending Giles and Jonathan Arauz to the Astros for Velasquez, Brett Obertholtzer, former No. 1 overall pick Mark Appel, Thomas Eshelman and Harold Arauz.
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Suffice to say, the Astros seem to have made out better in the deal.
Though Giles' first season in Houston was a mixed-bag, he converted 34 of 38 save attempts during the 2017 regular season, while posting a 2.30 ERA. Giles hasn't been effective in the postseason, but he's a big part of a team heading to the World Series. McCullers posted a 4.25 ERA in 2017, but his advanced stats such as FIP (3.10) and xFIP (3.17) suggest that he was much better than that. The former first-round pick is still just 24, and while he struggled in the ALDS, he played a crucial role for the Astros in a well-contested ALCS.
Of course, it's not surprising that Giles has been effective for the Astros. The Phillies didn't trade him because he was about to fall off of a cliff. Klentak, correctly, saw a team that was a few years away from returning to contention and viewed a closer as an uncessary luxury. As I wrote this past summer, the premise of the Giles trade was strong. But the Phillies return hasn't faired especially well.
Appel, who was taken a pick ahead of future MVP Kris Bryant in the 2013 MLB Draft, was limited to just eight starts for Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2016. After elbow surgery ended Appel's first season in the organization, Appel made just 17 ineffective starts for the IronPigs in 2017. He dealt with shoulder problems in the back-half of the summer. Now 26, Appel has never appeared in a major league game and may not even be in the organization at the start of next season. At the very least, Appel is unlikely to remain on the 40-man roster.
Velasquez's career appears to be at a crossroads as well. In addition to an inability to consistently stay healthy, the 25-year-old has struggled to pitch to contact, and has been inable to get betters out without striking them out. This has led to him working high pitch counts and rarley pitching deep into games. Though he's occasionally flashed front-end-of-the-rotation potential, he's more often looked like a pitcher that struggles to locate his fastball and doesn't have much else to work with. Klentak did say in August that the Phillies plan to keep Velasquez in the rotation moving forward, though he's likely to begin the 2018 season with a short leash.
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Oberholtzer, who was a throw-in, didn't even last a full season with the organization.
Nearly two years removed, the trade doesn't look like a complete wash. Eshelman went 13-3 with a 2.40 ERA between Double-A Reading and Triple-A Lehigh Valley in 2017. He will likely factor into the major league rotation in 2018, and figures to be a steady arm at the back of the rotation for some time. Arauz, who is primarily a reliever, posted a 1.97 ERA in 29 games across three levels of the minors in 2017.
Still, if Eshelman and Arauz end up being the most productive pieces that the Phillies get in return for Giles, who was 25 when he was traded, that would be pretty disappointing. Certainly, the team would feel much better had they landed McCullers in the trade.
Jeff Luhnow has made a series of impressive transactions since he became the Astros general manager in December of 2011. The Giles trade probably isn't at the very top, but it was an important trade nontheless. After McCullers was able to throw the last four innings of the American League pennant-clinching game, Luhnow looks that much more impressive for not even considering moving McCullers when the Phillies inquired about him.
