By Tim Kelly, Sports Talk Philly editor 
In what's become a painfully slow moving free-agent market, Matt Klentak and the Philadelphia Phillies have made one of the few major signings thus far this offseason, having signed first baseman Carlos Santana to a three-year/$60 million deal last month. There's a very real chance that will be the only major signing that the Phillies – who are expected to be major players in next offseason's potentially historic free-agent class – make this offseason. But some around the league apparently aren't ready to close the book on the Phillies as major players this offseason just yet.
Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports spoke to a person connected to the Phillies that suggested that if the price drops on a major free-agent, the Phillies could swoop in:
Some could still see the Phillies making a big play for another free agent, perhaps a pitcher. And one Phillies-connected person said they might consider that – “if the price drops.” Their three-year deal with Carlos Santana seems to suggest they expect to win, if not this year, then by next year. So perhaps they could be involved with a top starter. Again, it is worth noting that their key decision-makers – from president Andy MacPhail to GM Matt Klentak and on down – once worked in Baltimore, and were there when Arrieta was drafted and developed.
Arrieta, who will be 32 in March, is the name that many continue to attempt to connect with the Phillies. Phillies brass did meet with Scott Boras, who represents Arrieta, at the MLB Winter Meetings, though you wonder if they were just doing their due-diligence. Still, while the Phillies may not be a perfect fit for Arrieta, there may not be a team that is, which could allow Arrieta's price to drop. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic wondered this week if Arrieta remains unsigned as Spring Training approaches, if the Phillies would consider making an offer like three-years and $90 million to the former National League Cy Young Award winner.
Of course, 2015 Arrieta, who went 22-6 with a 1.77 ERA and a 7.3 fWAR, isn't a free-agent. If Arrieta was still pitching at that level, the Cubs probably wouldn't have allowed him to reach free-agency. This isn't even 2016 Arrieta, who went 18-8 with a 3.10 ERA, 3.52 FIP and 3.8 fWAR. Arrieta went 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA, 4.16 FIP and 2.4 fWAR last season. There's a case to be made for making a push for him if a short-term deal becomes realistic. But there's also a case to be made that he's declined at a fairly alarming rate over the past two seasons, and that it would be quite a risk to sign him even to a short-term deal, knowing that you are unsure what you will get even in the first season of the deal.
Alex Cobb and Lance Lynn are two other free-agent possibilities, but the price (and years) would probably need to drop for them to become realistic targets for the Phillies as well.
All three pitchers mentioned did have qualifying offers extended to them, meaning the Phillies would have to part with their third and sixth round picks to sign any of them. This is on top of the second and fifth-round picks that they will surrender in next summer's draft for signing Santana, who was also extended a qualifying offer. And next offseason, it feels like near certainty that they will sign a free-agent with a qualifying offer attached to their candidacy. The Phillies have a deep system, but that's a lot of picks to potentially surrender in a short period.
For what it's worth, whether the Phillies make another notable signing (or trade) this offseason, the notion that some have put forward that they have largely sat out this offseason is simply not correct. On top of signing Santana to a lucrative free-agent contract, the team also dolled out a total of $34.2 million for relievers Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter. In an offseason that has featured one of the slowest developing markets in recent memory, the Phillies have been aggressive, relatively.
