Phillies: 2021’s Decision Time

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

In spring training’s final days, the Philadelphia Phillies must not only cut the active roster to 26 but also might designate for assignment players they can’t –but would prefer to– keep. Fortunately and unfortunately, injuries and rehabs can buy the execs up to a month to delay tough decisions.     

Destinations:

For the Phillies faithful, a numbers crunch can be confusing, especially if they lack three pieces of information the front office has. Therefore, the locals don’t understand the higher-ups thinking because they believe another move makes more sense. Though, not below the surface. 

IN OTHER WORDS:

“What's called a difficult decision is a difficult decision because either way you go there are penalties.” – Elia Kazan        

Like other baseball aspects, making the 26-man roster has annual certainties. Organizational determinations involve money, players with or without options, the choice of two with similar skill sets, injuries and the team’s competitive status. Usually, difficult cuts are last-minute decisions and extremely complex.   

Being slightly below the $210 million AAV (average annual value) is management’s preference and can affect final decisions. Presently, carrying Matt Joyce would increase the CBT (competitive-balance threshold) to $209 million. 

Current CBT of $210 million AAV:

For some, options unfortunately can lead to an Adam Haseley going to the alternate training site to get at-bats, while Roman Quinn, who has no options, makes the squad. Therefore, expect an uproar from some fans who would blast Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations, for a similar move.              

Due to injuries and rehabs, Brad Miller and Vince Velasquez may not return until mid-April or later. But Miller’s situation is problematic because the Phils need two reserve infielders. Translation: Ronald Torreyes takes a 26-man spot. 

Probable Phillies on the IL (injured list) on Opening Day:

* Non-roster invitees.

Girardi’s Clues:

Cuts also depend on the manager’s preferences. Currently, the skipper wants five starters, eight relievers, eight regulars and five bench pieces. Girardi, though, leaves a trail of breadcrumbs through his March approach.           

Working the middle innings on the same day separates the potential closers from setup men and others in the relief corps. For the ninth, Hector Neris, Archie Bradley and Jose Alvarado are competing.                     

Unlike the closer battle, setup men Brandon Kintzler and Watson* toed the rubber consecutively in the fifth through the seventh frames. Basically, one slot on the 40-man roster will eventually involve a cut. But Ramon Russo, like JD Hammer, could pass through waivers. (* Opted out on Mar. 26.)

For two remaining bullpen seats, Connor Brogdon, Jojo Romero and Sam Coonrod will compete, and the red pinstripes could activate Velasquez as a potential long man to replace David Hale. And keep in mind, the Phillies are Coonrod’s second club: the San Francisco Giants. They didn’t keep him.                        

For now, the Fightins will probably stretch out Velasquez and Spencer Howard in Allentown. But Velasquez could rejoin the team around mid-April, while Howard will get seasoning at Triple-A when the International League begins. Yes, the Phils will need spot starts from both even if no injuries occur. 

Miller was going to man infield and outfield positions, but Joyce can only cover the corner outfield grass. Realistically, Ronald Torreyes, like Scott Kingery, can handle the keystone, short and the hot corner. So Torreyes can temporarily fill Miller’s slot.                 

While Haseley could get at-bats in Allentown, Joyce could occupy his spot until mid-April, but the competition for playing time and roster slots doesn’t end on Opening Day. Plus injuries will still allow the red pinstripes to have a 27th and 28th man with plenty of opportunities to shine.  

Healthy 26 Phillies:

• Rotation’s 5: Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Zach Eflin, Matt Moore and Chase Anderson.
• Bullpen 8: Hector Neris, Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado, Brandon Kintzler, Vince Velasquez or David Hale and *LH Jojo Romero, RH Connor Brogdon and/or RH Sam Coonrod. 
• Lineup 7: LF Andrew McCutchen, 1B Rhys Hoskins, RF Bryce Harper, C JT Realmuto, SS Didi Gregorius, 3B Alec Bohm and 2B Jean Segura.
• CF and Bench 5: OF Adam Haseley, INF/OF Brad Miller, C Andrew Knapp, OF Roman Quinn, OF Odubel Herrera, OF Matt Joyce and/or *INF/OF Scott Kingery. 
• * Optioned to minor league camp on March 28.

• 3 Openings: Romero, Brogdon, Coonrod and/or Hale.

Probable Phillies on the IL (injured list) on Opening Day:

* Non-roster invitees.

Presently, some Fightins are not healthy or haven’t had enough preparation time: Miller, Velasquez and Haseley. In the pen, Romero, Brogdon and/or Coonrod can go north, while Hale could continue into April with Velasquez on the IL.                                          

While Haseley is getting swings in Allentown –if the Phils go that route– Joyce will head to the Bank. However, the red pinstripes could designate Russo for assignment and also carry Herrera, plus they could eventually cut Coonrod or an MiLB marginal prospect to have both outfielders on the active 26.

Phillies for 3 active roster slots:

• Romero, Brogdon, Coonrod, Hale and/or Herrera.

If the franchise has 26 healthy players, two of the above Phillies won’t have a slot. Ergo, Herrera could play in Triple-A. For now, Joyce will eventually need Russo’s 40-man spot, but another minor leaguer could go instead.

The bottom prospects on the club’s top 30 are southpaws: an exec’s preference. However, one possibility is righty Bailey Falter, who isn’t on the Phils’ top 30 and went 6-5 with a 3.84 ERA in 2019 during 14 Double-A starts. But what mind-changing information does management have regarding my take? More than three pieces!   

NEXT:

The Phillies March to May