Phillies: 2021’s New NL East’s Chase

By Tal Venada, Sports Talk Philly Contributor

The Philadelphia Phillies are down to two rivals for the National League East crown, but you might not know it because the naysayers will immediately eliminate them if they haven’t already since the Pittsburgh Pirates series. Yes, it’s inevitable!

The Aftermath:

Some Phillies faithful will have no difficulty finding a reason to doubt them regardless of their trading-deadline moves. And even if Dave Dombrowski, president of baseball operations, acquired the players they had preferred, there will always be one difference-maker still needed to avoid another postseason miss.

IN OTHER WORDS:

“Whenever you make a big decision in life, at least any decision where you have a viable alternative, there is an inevitable uneasy aftermath.” – Emily Giffin

Many supporters increase their expectations near July’s end and rarely express satisfaction afterwards. Unfortunately, the franchise didn’t pick up the star they had wanted, and adding three pieces instead of four is always one deal short. The club, basically, can never do enough during the season, even when they win.

For doubting Thomases, it is impossible to be wrong. Because if the team loses more than their prediction, it is even worse than they thought. But winning more works too because they hoped they were wrong, which cancels out their original forecast.

The locals here don’t have a patent on this thinking. No, there’s no difference in any baseball city except for much-worse Gotham. Their supporters aren’t happy to just make the playoffs because the New York Yankees haven’t even appeared in one World Series in the last 10 summers.

To illustrate, even paying $500-600 million in Luxury Tax penalties over many years isn’t good enough. They must do it every 162 without exception. In fact, they grumbled about the Yanks not spending enough in ‘21, but at least they didn’t call them cheap: the only upside.

Even writers aren’t totally knowledgeable about front-office functions. For instance, one asked then general manager Bobby Clarke of the Philadelphia Flyers about a fourth-round selection like it was a throwaway in a swap. Paraphrasing Clarke, he questioned if the scribe knew the value of a fourth-round pick. He didn’t!

Behind the scenes, execs have relationships with other organizations, rules to protect players’ careers from stockpiling owners, and finalizing deadlines. Unfortunately, some rules are so complex you’d need internal information to determine some timeframes: It can be confusing.

Divisional Changes:

The New York Mets added Rich Hill and Trevor Williams to a depleted rotation with Jacob deGrom suffering a setback, no return timetable for Noah Syndergaard, and David Peterson with season-ending surgery. Shortstop-wise, they acquired Javier Baez with Francisco Lindor (oblique) out until mid-August.

Second-half Standings (updated through Aug. 5):

TIMEFRAME	PHILLIES	BRAVES	METS
1st Half	44 – 44	44 – 45	47 – 40
2nd Half	12 – 9	11 – 9	9 – 12
Post Deadline	5 – 2	4 – 2	2 – 5

The Atlanta Braves dealt for Richard Rodriquez, the Pirates closer, to be a setup man. And since Ronald Acuna Jr. won’t be back this summer, their new outfield is Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler. Plus catcher Travis d’Arnaud will return in early August.

Schedule-wise, the Fightins will play the Metropolitans for three home contests in early August and three away September games. The Phils will also face Atlanta there for three contests to end September. In total, they will play 14 of their next 26 at home, and 12 contests will be against easier opponents: nine on the road.

The New Phillies:

Sunday, Kyle Gibson made his first appearance for the good guys, and the American League All-Star will slot behind Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler through 2022. But he’ll be in front of Zach Eflin when the red pinstripes reactivate him from the IL (injured list) due to a balky knee. But will he need more than one rehab start?

New Phillies Stats before August:

Kyle Gibson, 33.5: 19 Gms., 113 Inn., 6-3, a 2.87 ERA and a 1.8 fWAR.
Ian Kennedy, 36.5: 32 Gms., 32 ⅓ Inn., a 2.51 ERA, 16 Saves, 1 BS and a 0.4 fWAR.
Freddy Galvis, 31.5: 72 Gms., 274 PA, a .249 Avg., 9 HR, 26 RBI and a 1.4 fWAR.

In the pen, Ian Kennedy will close, while Archie Bradley, Jose Alvarado and Hector Neris will handle the seventh and eighth innings. Plus Connor Brogdon will work the sixth frame along with Sam Coonrod when he returns. Moreover, Seranthony Dominquez will rehab this week and could handle a September setup role.

Southpaw Ranger Suarez has a starter’s control and arsenal, and Joe Girardi considered him a possibility for 2020’s five-man staff in March. Unfortunately, he had COVID-19 to wash out his opportunity. But he was originally in the bullpen because the Phillies needed a fresh arm in 2019: a successful second chance.

Filling a utility role, Freddy Galvis may be a replacement option if Didi Gregorius continues struggling with his hitting and fielding. For now, the gold-glove-caliber defender is on the IL for another 7-10 days with a right quadriceps strain. And he’s a switch-hitter with pop to pinch-hit from either side of the plate.

While stretch-drive baseball dictates winning every series, this isn’t a realistic expectation. And sweeping also-ran teams is another miscue because they don’t lose every game, and they have players who are auditioning for ‘22. Yes, the contender will mostly –not always– have two victories in a three-contest set.

The 2021 trading deadline was unique with the number of stars and top-tier prospects having new employers. Translation: NL West clubs were active because those NL organizations need to avoid the Wild Card Game. Plus the Boston Red Sox and the Yankees –for a wild card–were productive.

For the naysayers who don’t believe the Phils will go deep in October if they capture the division, the NL West will probably have both Wild Card berths, and the winner will face the club with the best record: yeah, the other NL West franchise. So, the NL East and NL Central victors will face each other in the NLDS.

If you think the ups and downs of the regular campaign are difficult to absorb, you better buckle up for August and September. Yes, August will be a rough ride intensifying in the first half of September, but guess what the final two weeks are like? An upside-down roller coaster!

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